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Why TLPH Stock slipped -1.94% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$1.01 -1.94% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.00

Talphera Inc. (TLPH) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $53.5M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TLPH Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TLPH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Talphera Inc. (NASDAQ: TLPH) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $1.01 (-1.94% 1D, market cap $53.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, TLPH ranks #572 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TLPH compare to PLRX and HYFT in the Health Care sector?
▼

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), TLPH carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, PLRX (Pliant Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $53.2M) and HYFT (MindWalk Holdings Corp.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $53.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TLPH leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TLPH leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TLPH?
▼

Per TLPH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001427925), Talphera Inc. generated $37.8M in revenue (-11.6% YoY), -$14.3M in net income, and -$11.4M in free cash flow against $29.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.00 (-0.54%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510036
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (5)SEC (10)Macro (10)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.9% Base Target
$2 Bull$1 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE TLPH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TLPH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TLPH SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (28% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 36% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 34.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
44
Grade D$1.08+0% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
41
Grade D$1.08-0.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
39
Grade E$1.07-5.6% Next Q
Current
36
Grade D-$1.01-8.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (44) → D- (36)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TLPH Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TLPH currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.14) and Max Pain ($1.06) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $1.65.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TLPH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TLPH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why TLPH Stock slipped -1.94% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Talphera Inc. (TLPH) slipped -1.94% to $1.01, trading at 36% of its 52-week range ($0.69 – $1.57). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 36% of its 52-week range ($0.69 – $1.57) with RSI-14 at 34.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.5% around $1.01 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live TLPH Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 83d ago
Talphera Q2 Earnings Call Highlights

Talphera (NASDAQ:TLPH) said it had reached 75% enrollment in its NEPHRO-CRRT registrational study and remains on track to complete enrollment later in 2026, as the company prepares for a potential commercial launch of it

MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 174d ago
Talphera (TLPH) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript

With this continued progress, we believe we are well positioned to complete enrollment in the nephro CRRT study this year. As mentioned, in early March, we announced the attainment of the 50% enrollment milestone in the

MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 174d ago
Talphera Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Talphera (NASDAQ:TLPH) reported first-quarter financial results on Wednesday. The transcript from the company's first-quarter earnings call has been provided below. This transcript is brought to you by Benzinga APIs. For

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TLPH)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TLPH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TLPH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +13.48%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $1.07H $1.07L $1.01C $1.01VOL 83.5K
RES: $1.10SUP: $1.00SMA50: $1.14SMA200: $1.01
$1.55$1.34$1.12$0.91$0.69RES $1.10SUP $1.00$1.012026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TLPH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -11.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TLPH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TLPH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TLPH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TLPH)

Health Care Rank #572 of 1015 ⚔️ PLRX vs TLPH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TLPH vs. PLRX, HYFT, XLO, HRTX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Talphera Inc. (TLPH) ranks #572 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #734 by equity capitalization ($53.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TLPH leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TLPH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. HYFT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 45/100 (D) compared with TLPH at 36/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TLPH ACTIVE
Talphera Inc.
D- 36/100 — — -35.0% -1.94% $53.5M Benchmark Subject
PLRX
Pliant Therapeutics Inc.
E 34/100 — — -35.0% -2.29% $53.2M /plrx-vs-tlph →
HYFT
MindWalk Holdings Corp.
D 45/100 — — — -2.65% $53.8M /hyft-vs-tlph →
XLO
Xilio Therapeutics Inc.
E 25/100 — — -35.0% -0.50% $52.8M /xlo-vs-tlph →
HRTX
Heron Therapeutics Inc.
E 34/100 — 73.3% -35.0% +6.27% $52.7M /hrtx-vs-tlph →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001427925 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Talphera Inc. (TLPH) reported GAAP revenue of $37.8M (-11.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $42.7M , and -20.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$14.3M, operating cash flow of -$11.4M, and free cash flow of -$11.4M (+10.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, TLPH closed FY2025 with $29.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $37.8M -$14.3M -$11.4M -$11.4M $29.7M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $42.7M -$13.0M -$12.7M -$12.7M $18.2M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $47.3M -$18.4M -$17.5M -$17.5M — —

3. TLPH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TLPH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Talphera Inc. (NASDAQ: TLPH) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $1.01 (-1.94% 1D, market cap $53.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, TLPH ranks #572 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TLPH compare to PLRX and HYFT in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), TLPH carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, PLRX (Pliant Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $53.2M) and HYFT (MindWalk Holdings Corp.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $53.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TLPH leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TLPH leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TLPH?

Per TLPH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001427925), Talphera Inc. generated $37.8M in revenue (-11.6% YoY), -$14.3M in net income, and -$11.4M in free cash flow against $29.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TLPH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TLPH last traded at $1.01 (-1.94% on volume of 55,868 shares), positioning the stock -11.40% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.14) and 0.00% above its 200-day simple moving average ($1.01). Across its 52-week range of $0.69 to $1.57, TLPH sits at the 36.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.5% ($1.00 to $1.10).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 36/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TLPH — Talphera Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Talphera Inc. (TLPH) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 36/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $1.01 (-1.94% 1D, market capitalization $53.5M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of -20.46%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Talphera Inc. (TLPH) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry..1B. —: specific products, customers, or revenue model. The reported revenue of — across the SEC financial periods indicates no reported revenue in the source data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Talphera Inc. (TLPH) reported $37.8M in annual revenue (up from $42.7M in FY2024, -11.6% YoY) and -$14.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($47.3M revenue, -$18.4M net income) through FY2025, TLPH scaled operating cash flow to -$11.4M and free cash flow to -$11.4M, backed by $29.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 36/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -20.46% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.69 – $1.57 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

—: upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations. A prospective investor should monitor the cash decline across FY 2024 to FY 2025 as the primary second-order pressure point.

  • Key Question #1: Can TLPH sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $37.8M and free cash flow of -$11.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TLPH's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TLPH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Talphera Inc. (TLPH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TLPH Debate Forum (3) ↓
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 83d ago
Talphera Q2 Earnings Call Highlights

Talphera (NASDAQ:TLPH) said it had reached 75% enrollment in its NEPHRO-CRRT registrational study and remains on track to complete enrollment later in 2026, as the company prepares for a potential commercial launch of it

Read Full Source ↗
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TLPH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1.01?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TLPH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TLPH:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1.35 (+31.1%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The 0% dividend yield and beta of 1.0 mean the stock trades in line with the market, with a 52-week low of $0.69 leaving the current $1

Don't sleep on TLPH's setup in Health Care. The 0% dividend yield and beta of 1.0 mean the stock trades in line with the market, with a 52-week low of $0.69 leaving the current $1.03 price well above that floor.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (36/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Shorting a 5/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $1.03 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.81 (-21.4%)
Spot @ $1.03

Negative ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of -20.46%, and an insider conviction pillar score of 3/20 point to ongoing cash burn without insider

Fading this rally in TLPH at $1.03. Negative ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of -20.46%, and an insider conviction pillar score of 3/20 point to ongoing cash burn without insider support.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $1.03 (52-wk range $0.69–$1.57), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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