Stock Ratings / Health Care / TMCI / forecast

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Treace Medical Concepts Inc. (TMCI) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$4.43 -12.45% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.32

Treace Medical Concepts Inc. (TMCI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $329.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TMCI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TMCI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Treace Medical Concepts Inc. (NASDAQ: TMCI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $4.43 (-12.45% 1D, market cap $329.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TMCI ranks #527 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TMCI compare to CLPT and ANIK in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), TMCI carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 79.8%, and ROIC of -32.4%. By comparison, CLPT (ClearPoint Neuro Inc.) holds a E grade (19/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $342.7M) and ANIK (Anika Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -10.2%, cap $291.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, EMBC leads on earnings multiple (3.9x) while EMBC leads on capital efficiency (35.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMCI?

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Per TMCI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001630627), Treace Medical Concepts Inc. generated $212.7M in revenue (+1.6% YoY), -$59.0M in net income, and -$29.5M in free cash flow against $190.6M in total assets and $55.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.32 (-2.43%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TMCI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TMCI SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (35% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+9/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 59% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 62.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$4.10-5.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$3.88+13.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$4.42+0.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$4.43-7.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (32) → D- (40)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TMCI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TMCI currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.44) and Max Pain ($4.65) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.98.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TMCI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TMCI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 40%NO 60%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your TMCI Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $4.43: 2257.3 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $3.17

$7,156

$-2,844 (-28.4%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $4.07

$9,187

$-813 (-8.1%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $6.98

$15,756

+$5,756 (+57.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$4	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$7	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$4	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TMCI)

✓Walkthrough of TMCI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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TMCI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +142.08%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $4.83H $5.06L $4.43C $4.43VOL 368.1K

RES: $5.26SUP: $3.53SMA50: $4.44SMA200: $3.25

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TMCI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TMCI Butterfly Map → + Track TMCI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TMCI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TMCI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TMCI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TMCI)

Health Care Rank #527 of 1016 ⚔️ CLPT vs TMCI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TMCI vs. CLPT, ANIK, EMBC, MOBI)

Industry: Medical/Dental Instruments (120 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Treace Medical Concepts Inc. (TMCI) ranks #527 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #510 by equity capitalization ($329.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EMBC leads on earnings valuation at 3.9x trailing P/E, while EMBC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 35.5% ROIC and 62.6% gross margin. EMBC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with TMCI at 40/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TMCI ACTIVE Treace Medical Concepts Inc.	D-	40/100	—	79.8%	-32.4%	-12.45%	$329.1M	Benchmark Subject
CLPT ClearPoint Neuro Inc.	E	19/100	—	61.4%	-35.0%	-0.19%	$342.7M	/clpt-vs-tmci →
ANIK Anika Therapeutics Inc.	D+	55/100	—	56.6%	-10.2%	-3.85%	$291.6M	/anik-vs-tmci →
EMBC Embecta Corp.	B	74/100	3.9x	62.6%	35.5%	-4.73%	$371.7M	/embc-vs-tmci →
MOBI Mobia Medical Inc.	D+	53/100	—	—	—	-6.12%	$375.2M	/mobi-vs-tmci →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001630627

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Treace Medical Concepts Inc. (TMCI) reported GAAP revenue of $212.7M (+1.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $209.4M , and +13.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$59.0M, operating cash flow of -$16.0M, and free cash flow of -$29.5M (+39.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, TMCI closed FY2025 with $190.6M in total assets against $55.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.90, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$212.7M	-$59.0M	-$16.0M	-$29.5M	$190.6M	$55.6M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$209.4M	-$55.7M	-$37.2M	-$48.8M	$217.1M	$53.3M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$187.1M	-$50.0M	-$34.6M	-$34.6M	—	—

3. TMCI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TMCI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does TMCI compare to CLPT and ANIK in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMCI?

Where is TMCI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TMCI last traded at $4.43 (-12.45% on volume of 290,599 shares), positioning the stock -0.23% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.44) and +36.31% above its 200-day simple moving average ($3.25). Across its 52-week range of $1.17 to $6.65, TMCI sits at the 59.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 62.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($3.88 to $4.98).

TMCI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is TMCI's 12-month stock price target?

Treace Medical Concepts Inc. (TMCI) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $4.07 (-8.1% from $4.43), with a bull-case target of $6.98 and a bear-case floor of $3.17.

Is TMCI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates TMCI D- (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 40/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: TMCI RQD Cockpit TMCI 12M Forecast TMCI Earnings & Move TMCI Dividends & DRIP TMCI Insiders & 13F TMCI Whale Options TMCI Profit Sankey TMCI News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 40/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TMCI — Treace Medical Concepts Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:38:18Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TMCI scores 40 out of 100, equating to a letter grade of D- and the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." Across the five pillars, the Fundamental Cash Engine scores 6 of 20 (ROIC -32.4%; FCF yield -8.96%), indicating the business is not currently generating returns on invested capital or free cash flow relative to its value. Whale 13F Flow scores 14 of 20, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning, the strongest pillar and a potential upside driver if sustained. Insider Conviction scores 3 of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), the weakest signal in the set. Macro Regime Fit scores 9 of 20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), meaning the stock tracks the broader market without a clear defensive offset. Forensic Balance Sheet scores 8 of 20 (Altman Z 0.9; Piotroski F 4/9; Debt/Equity 0.64), which flags financial fragility. For a prospective investor today, the rating implies that any upside case depends on institutional conviction and a change in cash generation, while the balance sheet and insider signals argue for caution and close monitoring rather than a position built on the current fundamentals.

Business

Treace Medical Concepts Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Medical/Dental Instruments industry. Per the company profile, it operates with a market capitalization of $0.3B. The source data does not identify its specific products, customers, or revenue model beyond the sector classification and the reported revenue figures in the SEC financials.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$212.7M	$-54.2M	$-59.0M	N/A	$-29.5M	$10.7M	$55.6M
FY 2024	$209.4M	$-55.7M	$-55.7M	N/A	$-48.8M	$11.3M	$53.3M
FY 2023	$187.1M	$-51.4M	$-50.0M	N/A	$-34.6M	N/A	N/A

Per the market data, gross margin is 79.8%, operating margin -25.5%, and net margin -27.7%, with ROIC at -32.4%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 0.9 and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, both consistent with financial stress. Debt/Equity is 0.64 per the forensic balance sheet pillar. Reported operating losses and negative free cash flow persist across the three periods shown.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, the most prominent item is a scheduled event: TMCI will discuss third-quarter results at 8 a.m. ET on Nov. 6, which the feed classifies as a catalyst. Several market-wire items (MarketBeat, Simply Wall St, Benzinga) reference the stock crossing above its 50-day moving average and general health care pre-market movement, with one MarketBeat item asking whether it is time to sell. A Stock Titan report notes that an innovation chief disposed of 207 shares and reports holding 634,656 shares, a modest insider reduction. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no proprietary signals or supply-chain links are recorded.

Open Questions

What are the specific products, customers, and revenue drivers behind the $212.7M FY 2025 revenue?
What is the company's cash runway given $10.7M cash against a $-29.5M FY 2025 free cash flow?
What do the FY 2023 cash and debt figures show, which are missing from the source?
What are the P/E, EV/EBITDA, and EPS values, which are not available in source data?
What analyst consensus and price targets exist for the stock?

TMCI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Treace Medical Concepts Inc. (TMCI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TMCI Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟢 CATALYST Stock Titan • 12h ago

A company focused on bunion surgery will discuss third-quarter results at 8 a.m. ET Nov. 6.

Stock Titan report covering Treace Medical Concepts Inc. (TMCI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 15h ago

Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (TMCI) - What Are Researchers Saying About This Stock?

MarketBeat report covering Treace Medical Concepts Inc. (TMCI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 18h ago

3 Penny Stocks With Market Caps Up To $3B

Simply Wall St report covering Treace Medical Concepts Inc. (TMCI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 21h ago

Treace Medical Concepts (NASDAQ:TMCI) Stock Crosses Above 50-Day Moving Average - Time to Sell?

MarketBeat report covering Treace Medical Concepts Inc. (TMCI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

After disposing of 207 shares, Treace Medical (TMCI) innovation chief Scanlan reports holding 634,656 shares.

Stock Titan report covering Treace Medical Concepts Inc. (TMCI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 1d ago

12 Health Care Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Pre-Market Session - China SXT Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:SXTC)

Benzinga report covering Treace Medical Concepts Inc. (TMCI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI) Expected to Post Quarterly Earnings on Friday

MarketBeat report covering Treace Medical Concepts Inc. (TMCI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Treace Medical Concepts Q3 2026 Earnings Date and Estimates

MarketBeat report covering Treace Medical Concepts Inc. (TMCI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TMCI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.43?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TMCI 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.45 (-12.1%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TMCI (D- • RQD 40/100) a Buy at $5.06?

Welcome to the TMCI (Treace Medical Concepts Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 40/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Medical/Dental Instruments. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.90 (-22.9%)

Spot @ $5.06

Pump the brakes on TMCI — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TMCI, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 79.8% gross margins. Unless Treace Medical Concepts Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $5.87 (+16.0%)

Spot @ $5.06

TMCI cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TMCI, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Medical/Dental Instruments and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $5.06 (52-wk range $1.17 - $6.65), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.