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Stock Ratings / Financials / TMP / earnings
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Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4.6% Move

$101.48 +1.97% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $101.65

Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.43B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TMP Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TMP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Tompkins Financial Corporation (NYSE: TMP) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $101.48 (+1.97% 1D, market cap $1.43B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, TMP ranks #424 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TMP compare to BHRB and WABC in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), TMP carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 17.2%. By comparison, BHRB (Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 13.7%, cap $1.42B) and WABC (Westamerica Bancorporation) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 12.4%, cap $1.40B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMP leads on earnings multiple (9.1x) while TMP leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMP?
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Per TMP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001005817), Tompkins Financial Corporation generated $75.7M in revenue (-4.5% YoY), $161.1M in net income, and $31.9M in free cash flow against $8.67B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $101.64 (+0.16%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 42.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510059
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Cash (8)Whales (12)SEC (13)Macro (12)CEO (14)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.5% Base Target
$120 Bull$102 Base$80 Bear
📬 FREE TMP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TMP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TMP SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 12 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
51
Grade C-$96.20+3.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
54
Grade C-$99.35+2.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
56
Grade C$102.19-0.7% Next Q
Current
59
Grade C-$101.48+0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (51) → C- (59)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TMP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, TMP faces multiple-compression risk if 9.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($98.31) or 200D SMA ($89.33) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($101.94) toward Bear Floor ($79.51).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TMP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TMP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4.6% Swing Band

±$4.67 Expected Swing
$96.81 (-4.6%)Spot $101.48$106.15 (+4.6%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

TMP Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 59/100

Trailing EPS: $11.20 • YoY Revenue Growth: -4.5%

Model Bullish Setup (59/100)Model Risk Weight (41/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$75.7M$161.1M$31.9M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$79.3M$70.8M$88.8M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$75.0M$9.5M$89.0M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating TMP & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on TMP
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TMP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +22.19%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $101.6H $101.6L $99.52C $101.5VOL 108.0K
RES: $104.8SUP: $94.23SMA50: $98.31SMA200: $89.33
$106.4$97.27$88.16$79.04$69.93RES $104.8SUP $94.23$101.52026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TMP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TMP Butterfly Map → + Track TMP →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-3.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -4.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TMP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TMP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TMP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TMP)

Financials Rank #424 of 1097 ⚔️ BHRB vs TMP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TMP vs. BHRB, WABC, PEBO, LKFN)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) ranks #424 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #498 by equity capitalization ($1.43B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TMP leads on earnings valuation at 9.1x trailing P/E, while TMP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.2% ROIC and — gross margin. PEBO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with TMP at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TMP ACTIVE
Tompkins Financial Corporation
C- 59/100 9.1x — 17.2% +1.97% $1.43B Benchmark Subject
BHRB
Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.
C 64/100 12.2x — 13.7% +2.23% $1.42B /bhrb-vs-tmp →
WABC
Westamerica Bancorporation
C+ 67/100 12.2x — 12.4% +1.64% $1.40B /wabc-vs-tmp →
PEBO
Peoples Bancorp Inc.
C+ 69/100 13.1x — 10.5% +3.54% $1.39B /pebo-vs-tmp →
LKFN
Lakeland Financial Corporation
C+ 66/100 14.6x — 13.6% +2.91% $1.48B /lkfn-vs-tmp →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001005817 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) reported GAAP revenue of $75.7M (-4.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $79.3M , and +1.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $161.1M, operating cash flow of $38.9M, and free cash flow of $31.9M (-64.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, TMP closed FY2025 with $8.67B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $75.7M $161.1M $38.9M $31.9M $8.67B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $79.3M $70.8M $95.0M $88.8M $8.11B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $75.0M $9.5M $89.0M $89.0M — —

3. TMP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TMP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Tompkins Financial Corporation (NYSE: TMP) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $101.48 (+1.97% 1D, market cap $1.43B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, TMP ranks #424 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TMP compare to BHRB and WABC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), TMP carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 17.2%. By comparison, BHRB (Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 13.7%, cap $1.42B) and WABC (Westamerica Bancorporation) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 12.4%, cap $1.40B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMP leads on earnings multiple (9.1x) while TMP leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMP?

Per TMP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001005817), Tompkins Financial Corporation generated $75.7M in revenue (-4.5% YoY), $161.1M in net income, and $31.9M in free cash flow against $8.67B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TMP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TMP last traded at $101.48 (+1.97% on volume of 107,285 shares), positioning the stock +3.22% above its 50-day simple moving average ($98.31) and +13.60% above its 200-day simple moving average ($89.33). Across its 52-week range of $63.60 to $104.18, TMP sits at the 93.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.6% ($96.81 to $106.15).

Direct Sub-Reports: TMP RQD Cockpit TMP 12M Forecast TMP Earnings & Move TMP Dividends & DRIP TMP Insiders & 13F TMP Whale Options TMP Profit Sankey TMP News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 59/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TMP — Tompkins Financial Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 59/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $101.48 (+1.97% 1D, market capitalization $1.43B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 17.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 2.19%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating within the Major Banks industry. The profile identifies a market capitalization of $1.5B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) reported $75.7M in annual revenue (up from $79.3M in FY2024, -4.5% YoY) and $161.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($75.0M revenue, $9.5M net income) through FY2025, TMP scaled operating cash flow to $38.9M and free cash flow to $31.9M, backed by $8.67B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 59/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 2.19% and institutional whale pillar of 12/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $63.60 – $104.18 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 9.1x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— for upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks beyond the sector and industry classification of Financials and Major Banks.

  • Key Question #1: Can TMP sustain or expand its — operating margin and 17.2% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $75.7M and free cash flow of $31.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TMP's 8.5x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TMP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TMP Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TMP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $101.48?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TMP 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TMP:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $119.42 (+20.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Net income rose from $9.5M in FY 2023 to $161.1M in FY 2025 alongside a 17.2% ROIC and a 1.0 beta.

Long TMP at $99.52 targeting $119.42. Net income rose from $9.5M in FY 2023 to $161.1M in FY 2025 alongside a 17.2% ROIC and a 1.0 beta.. Institutional whale score is 12/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $63.60 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Fair point on 9.1x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Major Banks. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $77.63 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $99.52

FCF fell from $89.0M in FY 2023 to $31.9M in FY 2025 while the FCF yield stands at 2.19%.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short TMP above $99.52. FCF fell from $89.0M in FY 2023 to $31.9M in FY 2025 while the FCF yield stands at 2.19%.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20) and FCF yield (2.19%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $104.18.

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