Why TMQ Stock dropped -5.19% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$2.19 -5.19% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.17

Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 31/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $418.9M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TMQ stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Trilogy Metals Inc. (NYSE: TMQ) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $2.19 (-5.19% 1D, market cap $418.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, TMQ ranks #229 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TMQ compare to CMCL and ITRG in the Materials sector?
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Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), TMQ carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -34.0%. By comparison, CMCL (Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $413.8M) and ITRG (Integra Resources Corp.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $454.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMQ leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TMQ leads on capital efficiency (-34.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMQ?
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Per TMQ's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-11-30, CIK 0001543418), Trilogy Metals Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$42.2M in net income, and -$3.2M in free cash flow against $157.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.17 (-1.12%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (31/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510031
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (8)Whales (3)SEC (10)Macro (7)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-12.3% Base Target
$8 Bull$2 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE TMQ RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TMQ)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (31/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TMQ SCORES 31/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (32% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
39
Grade E$2.73-14.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
36
Grade E$2.33-13.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
34
Grade E$2.02+8.4% Next Q
Current
31
Grade E$2.19-9.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (39) → E (31)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TMQ Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TMQ currently carries a cautious 31/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.98) and Max Pain ($2.30) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $7.61.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TMQ• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TMQ Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Nov 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why TMQ Stock dropped -5.19% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) dropped -5.19% to $2.19, trading at 5% of its 52-week range ($1.94 – $7.25). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-34% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 5% of its 52-week range ($1.94 – $7.25) with RSI-14 at 38.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±10.5% around $2.19 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live TMQ Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREChartMill • 14h ago
TMQ Stock Price, Quote & Chart

ChartMill report covering Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TMQ)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TMQ's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TMQ // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -49.19%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $2.33H $2.33L $2.19C $2.19VOL 1.19M
RES: $3.07SUP: $1.87SMA50: $2.98SMA200: $3.78
$5.30$4.39$3.48$2.57$1.66RES $3.07SUP $1.87$2.192026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TMQ Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TMQ today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TMQ. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TMQ today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TMQ)

Materials Rank #229 of 270 ⚔️ CMCL vs TMQ Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (TMQ vs. CMCL, ITRG, NAK, VGZ)

Industry: Precious Metals (74 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) ranks #229 by composite RQD confidence (31/100, grade E) and #182 by equity capitalization ($418.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TMQ leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TMQ leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -34.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CMCL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 46/100 (D) compared with TMQ at 31/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TMQ ACTIVE
Trilogy Metals Inc.
E 31/100 — — -34.0% -5.19% $418.9M Benchmark Subject
CMCL
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc
D 46/100 — — — -5.37% $413.8M /cmcl-vs-tmq →
ITRG
Integra Resources Corp.
D 45/100 — — — -6.25% $454.4M /itrg-vs-tmq →
NAK
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd.
D 46/100 — — — -2.01% $464.9M /nak-vs-tmq →
VGZ
Vista Gold Corp
D- 42/100 — — -35.0% -3.49% $376.6M /vgz-vs-tmq →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-11-30 • CIK 0001543418

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-11-30), Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$42.2M, operating cash flow of -$3.2M, and free cash flow of -$3.2M (-77.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, TMQ closed FY2025 with $157.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-11-30 $0 -$42.2M -$3.2M -$3.2M $157.3M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-11-30 $0 -$8.6M -$1.8M -$1.8M $133.7M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-11-30 $0 -$15.0M -$3.1M -$3.1M — —

3. TMQ Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TMQ stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Trilogy Metals Inc. (NYSE: TMQ) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $2.19 (-5.19% 1D, market cap $418.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, TMQ ranks #229 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TMQ compare to CMCL and ITRG in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), TMQ carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -34.0%. By comparison, CMCL (Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $413.8M) and ITRG (Integra Resources Corp.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $454.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMQ leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TMQ leads on capital efficiency (-34.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMQ?

Per TMQ's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-11-30, CIK 0001543418), Trilogy Metals Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$42.2M in net income, and -$3.2M in free cash flow against $157.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TMQ trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TMQ last traded at $2.19 (-5.19% on volume of 1,856,342 shares), positioning the stock -26.51% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.98) and -42.06% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.78). Across its 52-week range of $1.94 to $7.25, TMQ sits at the 4.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.5% ($1.96 to $2.42).

TMQ Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Why is TMQ stock moving today?

Why TMQ Stock dropped -5.19% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-34% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 31/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TMQ — Trilogy Metals Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:36:45Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TMQ scores 31 out of 100 with a letter grade of E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 8 / 20 (ROIC -34%; FCF yield -0.78%), Whale 13F Flow at 3 / 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 3 / 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 7 / 20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10 / 20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 2/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). Every pillar sits in the lower half of its range. The two weakest are the insider and institutional flow pillars, which indicate limited visible conviction from insiders and large holders in the source data. The cash engine pillar reflects negative return on invested capital and negative free-cash-flow yield. The balance sheet pillar is the strongest of the five but still scores only 10 / 20. For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the rating points to a combination of negative cash generation, weak flow signals, and a forensic profile that the rating treats as a risk to avoid. Upside drivers are not identified in the rating itself; the rating's own grade frames the stock as a sell-side risk profile rather than a valuation opportunity.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$0.0M$0.0M$-42.2MN/A$-3.2M$51.6MN/A
FY 2024$0.0M$0.0M$-8.6MN/A$-1.8M$25.8MN/A
FY 2023$0.0M$0.0M$-15.0MN/A$-3.1MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, reported revenue and operating income are $0.0M in every period, and net income is negative in each. Per the market data, gross, operating, and net margins are each 0% and ROIC is -34%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, the Piotroski F-Score is 2/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. The balance sheet shows reported cash of $51.6M at FY 2025 against a net loss of $-42.2M for the same period. Debt is listed as N/A in all periods.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts section, five items are tagged to TMQ, all carrying a YELLOW light and a MARKET WIRE impact label. The headlines are generic ChartMill, Moomoo, Investing.com, TradingView, and kalkine.ca items covering market action and positioning. Two items are more specific. A Yahoo Finance item reports completion of a 2026 Summer Field Program at Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects. An Investing.com item reports that InvestingPro Fair Value flagged a 49% decline. The source data does not give the content of these articles beyond their headlines. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's revenue sources, given that reported revenue is $0.0M in every period?
  • Which specific projects and assets underlie the Upper Kobuk program, and what stage are they at?
  • What are the reported debt figures, given that debt is N/A in every period while Debt/Equity is listed as 0.5?
  • What drove the net loss of $-42.2M in FY 2025 relative to the $-8.6M loss in FY 2024?
  • Which institutional, insider, or Congressional flows underpin the 3/20 flow pillars, given that holder data is NONE?

TMQ Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TMQ Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TMQ Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.19?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TMQ 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TMQ:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.03 (-12.1%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TMQ (E • RQD 31/100) a Buy at $2.31?

Welcome to the TMQ (Trilogy Metals Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 31/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Precious Metals. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

BE BearTrap_Alert Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.82 (-21.2%)
Spot @ $2.31

Pump the brakes on TMQ — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TMQ, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Trilogy Metals Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.75 (+19.0%)
Spot @ $2.31

TMQ cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TMQ, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Precious Metals and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $2.31 (52-wk range $1.94 - $7.25), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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