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Why TRUP Stock slipped -0.20% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$30.13 -0.20% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $30.06

Trupanion Inc. (TRUP) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.32B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TRUP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Trupanion Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUP) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $30.13 (-0.20% 1D, market cap $1.32B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, TRUP ranks #141 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TRUP compare to FRNM and ALHC in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), TRUP carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 68.2x, gross margin of 16.1%, and ROIC of 3.1%. By comparison, FRNM (Freenome Inc.) holds a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -3.4%, cap $1.34B) and ALHC (Alignment Healthcare Inc.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 13.9%, cap $1.52B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TRUP leads on earnings multiple (68.2x) while ALHC leads on capital efficiency (13.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TRUP?
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Per TRUP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001371285), Trupanion Inc. generated $1.44B in revenue (+11.9% YoY), $19.4M in net income, and $75.4M in free cash flow against $915.0M in total assets and $101.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 68x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $30.06 (-0.23%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 5.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510063
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B
Cash (10)Whales (13)SEC (15)Macro (14)CEO (11)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target
$49 Bull$31 Base$24 Bear
📬 FREE TRUP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TRUP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TRUP SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.17 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 35% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 67.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 1% operating margin leave 10 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
55
Grade C$26.57+8.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
58
Grade C$28.76+1.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
60
Grade C$29.21+3.1% Next Q
Current
63
Grade C$30.13+0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TRUP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, TRUP faces multiple-compression risk if 68.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 68x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($26.84) or 200D SMA ($26.56) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($30.81) toward Bear Floor ($24.03).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TRUP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TRUP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why TRUP Stock slipped -0.20% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Trupanion Inc. (TRUP) slipped -0.20% to $30.13, trading at 35% of its 52-week range ($21.16 – $46.98). Solid 16.1% gross margin (3% return on capital), mixed timing at 68x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 35% of its 52-week range ($21.16 – $46.98) with RSI-14 at 67.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.3% around $30.13 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 16.1% gross margin and $75.4M annual free cash flow.
Live TRUP Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TRUP Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TRUP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.30%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $30.19H $30.19L $30.13C $30.13VOL 330.7K
RES: $30.57SUP: $22.33SMA50: $26.84SMA200: $26.56
$37.91$33.37$28.83$24.29$19.75RES $30.57SUP $22.33$30.132026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TRUP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
45.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TRUP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TRUP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TRUP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TRUP)

Health Care Rank #141 of 1015 ⚔️ FRNM vs TRUP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TRUP vs. FRNM, ALHC, CSTL, LMRI)

Industry: Medical Specialities (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Trupanion Inc. (TRUP) ranks #141 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #319 by equity capitalization ($1.32B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TRUP leads on earnings valuation at 68.2x trailing P/E, while ALHC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.9% ROIC and — gross margin. TRUP currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TRUP ACTIVE
Trupanion Inc.
C 63/100 68.2x 16.1% 3.1% -0.20% $1.32B Benchmark Subject
FRNM
Freenome Inc.
E 31/100 — — -3.4% -2.95% $1.34B /frnm-vs-trup →
ALHC
Alignment Healthcare Inc.
D+ 56/100 — — 13.9% -9.80% $1.52B /alhc-vs-trup →
CSTL
Castle Biosciences Inc.
C 62/100 — 79.4% -9.3% -3.51% $1.14B /cstl-vs-trup →
LMRI
Lumexa Imaging Holdings Inc.
D+ 53/100 — — — -2.73% $1.10B /lmri-vs-trup →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001371285 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Trupanion Inc. (TRUP) reported GAAP revenue of $1.44B (+11.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.29B , and +29.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $19.4M, operating cash flow of $89.5M, and free cash flow of $75.4M (+95.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, TRUP closed FY2025 with $915.0M in total assets against $101.8M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.17, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.44B $19.4M $89.5M $75.4M $915.0M $101.8M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.29B -$9.6M $48.3M $38.6M $806.9M $127.5M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.11B -$44.7M $18.6M $18.6M — —

3. TRUP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TRUP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Trupanion Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUP) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $30.13 (-0.20% 1D, market cap $1.32B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, TRUP ranks #141 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TRUP compare to FRNM and ALHC in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), TRUP carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 68.2x, gross margin of 16.1%, and ROIC of 3.1%. By comparison, FRNM (Freenome Inc.) holds a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -3.4%, cap $1.34B) and ALHC (Alignment Healthcare Inc.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 13.9%, cap $1.52B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TRUP leads on earnings multiple (68.2x) while ALHC leads on capital efficiency (13.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TRUP?

Per TRUP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001371285), Trupanion Inc. generated $1.44B in revenue (+11.9% YoY), $19.4M in net income, and $75.4M in free cash flow against $915.0M in total assets and $101.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 68x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TRUP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TRUP last traded at $30.13 (-0.20% on volume of 330,678 shares), positioning the stock +12.26% above its 50-day simple moving average ($26.84) and +13.44% above its 200-day simple moving average ($26.56). Across its 52-week range of $21.16 to $46.98, TRUP sits at the 34.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 67.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.3% ($27.93 to $32.33).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TRUP — Trupanion Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Trupanion Inc. (TRUP) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 63/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $30.13 (-0.20% 1D, market capitalization $1.32B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.1%, gross margin of 16.1%, operating margin of 1.0%, and free cash flow yield of 5.69%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (11/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.17, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.27x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Trupanion Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector and Medical Specialities industry,. The company's product lines, customer base, and revenue model are not described in the source data. FY 2025 revenue was $1.44B, indicating a sizable operating scale. — for further detail on how the company makes money.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Trupanion Inc. (TRUP) reported $1.44B in annual revenue (up from $1.29B in FY2024, +11.9% YoY) and $19.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.11B revenue, -$44.7M net income) through FY2025, TRUP scaled operating cash flow to $89.5M and free cash flow to $75.4M, backed by $915.0M in total assets against $101.8M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 63/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 5.69% and institutional whale pillar of 13/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $21.16 – $46.98 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Priced at 68x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Investors must weigh 68.2x trailing P/E and 49.8x EV/EBITDA against 1.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Medical Specialities (Health Care), TRUP carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 16.1%.

  • Key Question #1: Can TRUP sustain or expand its 1.0% operating margin and 3.1% ROIC against Medical Specialities peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.44B and free cash flow of $75.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $101.8M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TRUP's 63.4x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TRUP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Trupanion Inc. (TRUP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TRUP Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TRUP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $30.13?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TRUP 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TRUP:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $35.25 (+17.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Balance sheet is strong (Altman Z 3.17, Piotroski F 8/9, Debt/Equity 0.27) and FY 2025 swung to $19.4M net income.

The street is overcomplicating Trupanion Inc. (TRUP). Balance sheet is strong (Altman Z 3.17, Piotroski F 8/9, Debt/Equity 0.27) and FY 2025 swung to $19.4M net income.. With an RQD score of 63/100 (C) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 15/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $32.54.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@AlphaFlow_Cap Agree on the RQD 63/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $30.13 and keeping dry powder in case we test $28.02.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $24.10 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $30.13

Valuation is stretched at a 68.2 P/E against a 3.1% ROIC and a 1% operating margin.

Valuation is stretched at a 68.2 P/E against a 3.1% ROIC and a 1% operating margin.. Look at the math on TRUP: paying 68.2x trailing P/E for 3.1% ROIC and 1.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Medical Specialities demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $26.51 before getting long.

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