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Why TSBK Stock surged +2.03% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$47.77 +2.03% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $47.85

Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $364.1M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TSBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Timberland Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: TSBK) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $47.77 (+2.03% 1D, market cap $364.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, TSBK ranks #145 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TSBK compare to FSBW and NECB in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Banks), TSBK carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.9%. By comparison, FSBW (FS Bancorp Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 10.5x, ROIC 10.8%, cap $346.2M) and NECB (NorthEast Community Bancorp Inc.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 9.0x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $398.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NECB leads on earnings multiple (9.0x) while NECB leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TSBK?
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Per TSBK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001046050), Timberland Bancorp Inc. generated $842.6M in revenue (+5.1% YoY), $29.2M in net income, and $28.4M in free cash flow against $2.01B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $47.86 (+0.18%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 3.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510069
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B · Rk C
Cash (14)Whales (13)SEC (13)Macro (13)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target
$59 Bull$50 Base$39 Bear
📬 FREE TSBK RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TSBK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TSBK SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.4% FCF Margin ($28.4M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (55.2) create a -7 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$45.17+1.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$45.85+4.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$47.90-0.3% Next Q
Current
69
Grade C+$47.77+2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TSBK Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, TSBK faces multiple-compression risk if 12.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($45.91) or 200D SMA ($42.43) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($50.13) toward Bear Floor ($39.10).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TSBK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TSBK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why TSBK Stock surged +2.03% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) surged +2.03% to $47.77, trading at 91% of its 52-week range ($31.85 – $49.38). Solid steady margins (11% return on capital), mixed timing at 13x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 91% of its 52-week range ($31.85 – $49.38) with RSI-14 at 55.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5% around $47.77 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $28.4M annual free cash flow.
Live TSBK Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TSBK Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
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TSBK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +18.65%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $47.26H $47.77L $46.82C $47.77VOL 15.5K
RES: $48.50SUP: $44.44SMA50: $45.91SMA200: $42.43
$50.33$46.40$42.46$38.53$34.60RES $48.50SUP $44.44$47.772026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TSBK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TSBK Butterfly Map → + Track TSBK →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
3.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TSBK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TSBK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TSBK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TSBK)

Financials Rank #145 of 1097 ⚔️ FSBW vs TSBK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TSBK vs. FSBW, NECB, PBFS, AVBC)

Industry: Banks (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) ranks #145 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #770 by equity capitalization ($364.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NECB leads on earnings valuation at 9.0x trailing P/E, while NECB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.6% ROIC and — gross margin. NECB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with TSBK at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TSBK ACTIVE
Timberland Bancorp Inc.
C+ 69/100 12.6x — 10.9% +2.03% $364.1M Benchmark Subject
FSBW
FS Bancorp Inc.
C+ 66/100 10.5x — 10.8% +0.32% $346.2M /fsbw-vs-tsbk →
NECB
NorthEast Community Bancorp Inc.
B- 71/100 9.0x — 12.6% +1.63% $398.0M /necb-vs-tsbk →
PBFS
Pioneer Bancorp Inc.
D+ 55/100 22.2x — 6.3% +2.33% $447.9M /pbfs-vs-tsbk →
AVBC
Avidia Bancorp Inc.
D+ 57/100 — — -0.9% +0.47% $469.3M /avbc-vs-tsbk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001046050 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) reported GAAP revenue of $842.6M (+5.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $802.0M , and +590.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $29.2M, operating cash flow of $30.2M, and free cash flow of $28.4M (+30.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, TSBK closed FY2025 with $2.01B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-09-30 $842.6M $29.2M $30.2M $28.4M $2.01B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-09-30 $802.0M $24.3M $23.0M $21.7M $1.91B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-09-30 $122.0M $27.1M $31.0M $31.0M — —

3. TSBK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TSBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Timberland Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: TSBK) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $47.77 (+2.03% 1D, market cap $364.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, TSBK ranks #145 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TSBK compare to FSBW and NECB in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Banks), TSBK carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.9%. By comparison, FSBW (FS Bancorp Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 10.5x, ROIC 10.8%, cap $346.2M) and NECB (NorthEast Community Bancorp Inc.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 9.0x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $398.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NECB leads on earnings multiple (9.0x) while NECB leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TSBK?

Per TSBK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001046050), Timberland Bancorp Inc. generated $842.6M in revenue (+5.1% YoY), $29.2M in net income, and $28.4M in free cash flow against $2.01B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TSBK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TSBK last traded at $47.77 (+2.03% on volume of 33,723 shares), positioning the stock +4.05% above its 50-day simple moving average ($45.91) and +12.59% above its 200-day simple moving average ($42.43). Across its 52-week range of $31.85 to $49.38, TSBK sits at the 90.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.0% ($45.38 to $50.16).

Direct Sub-Reports: TSBK RQD Cockpit TSBK 12M Forecast TSBK Earnings & Move TSBK Dividends & DRIP TSBK Insiders & 13F TSBK Whale Options TSBK Profit Sankey TSBK News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 69/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TSBK — Timberland Bancorp Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-09-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 69/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $47.77 (+2.03% 1D, market capitalization $364.1M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 10.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 7.73%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Timberland Bancorp Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Financials sector and the Banks industry. Market capitalization is listed at $0.4B in the profile.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-09-30), Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) reported $842.6M in annual revenue (up from $802.0M in FY2024, +5.1% YoY) and $29.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($122.0M revenue, $27.1M net income) through FY2025, TSBK scaled operating cash flow to $30.2M and free cash flow to $28.4M, backed by $2.01B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 69/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 7.73% and institutional whale pillar of 13/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $31.85 – $49.38 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 12.6x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Banks (Financials), TSBK carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can TSBK sustain or expand its — operating margin and 10.9% ROIC against Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $842.6M and free cash flow of $28.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TSBK's 11.7x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TSBK Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TSBK Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TSBK Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $47.77?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TSBK 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TSBK:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $56.18 (+20.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider Conviction scores 16/20, the strongest pillar, alongside a 7.73% FCF yield and a 12.6 P/E (TTM) under the 69 RQD score.

Long TSBK at $46.82 targeting $56.18. Insider Conviction scores 16/20, the strongest pillar, alongside a 7.73% FCF yield and a 12.6 P/E (TTM) under the 69 RQD score.. Institutional whale score is 13/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $31.85 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — TSBK's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $37.92 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $46.82

Revenue and operating income are reported as $0.0M in every period, and the margins are 0%, leaving the cash-engine case unverified.

I respect the product at Timberland Bancorp Inc., but the stock at $46.82 is a different story. Revenue and operating income are reported as $0.0M in every period, and the margins are 0%, leaving the cash-engine case unverified.. FCF yield is 7.73% and RQD sits at 69/100 (C+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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