TWFG Inc. (Class A) (TWFG) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$26.96 -0.70% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $26.87

TWFG Inc. (Class A) (TWFG) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.47B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TWFG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, TWFG Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: TWFG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $26.96 (-0.70% 1D, market cap $1.47B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TWFG ranks #158 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TWFG compare to STC and GSHD in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), TWFG carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 39.8%. By comparison, STC (Stewart Information Services Corporation) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 5.6%, cap $1.39B) and GSHD (Goosehead Insurance Inc. (Class A)) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 60.7x, ROIC 36.9%, cap $1.69B). Among the 5-stock peer group, STC leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while LIFE leads on capital efficiency (40.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TWFG?
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Per TWFG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002007596), TWFG Inc. (Class A) generated $248.5M in revenue (+22.0% YoY), $0 in net income, and $53.1M in free cash flow against $372.3M in total assets and $2.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $26.87 (-0.32%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 21.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510069
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk D+
Cash (18)Whales (13)SEC (10)Macro (13)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target
$33 Bull$28 Base$22 Bear
📬 FREE TWFG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TWFG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TWFG SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 21.4% FCF Margin ($53.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 10 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$24.41+4.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$25.45+14.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$29.03-7.1% Next Q
Current
69
Grade C+$26.96+2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TWFG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, TWFG faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($26.71) or 200D SMA ($23.11) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($28.29) toward Bear Floor ($22.07).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TWFG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TWFG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How TWFG Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$53.1M (21.4% FCF Margin)
Revenue$248.5MGross Profit $129.2M (52%)Cost of Sales $119.3MOp Profit $37.0M (14.9%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $92.2MNet Profit$0 (0%)Tax/Other $37.0M

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $172.0M
FY24
Rev $203.8M
FY25
Rev $248.5M
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$248.5M52%14.9%$0$53.1M95%
FY 2024$203.8M52%13.7%$2.7M$37.3M95%
FY 2023$172.0M52%14.8%$0$30.2M39.8%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TWFG)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TWFG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TWFG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +44.64%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $27.28H $27.28L $26.96C $26.96VOL 117.2K
RES: $29.01SUP: $22.74SMA50: $26.71SMA200: $23.11
$32.27$28.25$24.23$20.21$16.19RES $29.01SUP $22.74$26.962026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TWFG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
32.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +22.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TWFG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TWFG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TWFG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TWFG)

Financials Rank #158 of 1096 ⚔️ STC vs TWFG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TWFG vs. STC, GSHD, OIG, LIFE)

Industry: Specialty Insurers (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TWFG Inc. (Class A) (TWFG) ranks #158 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #495 by equity capitalization ($1.47B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, STC leads on earnings valuation at 12.0x trailing P/E, while LIFE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 40.6% ROIC and — gross margin. TWFG currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TWFG ACTIVE
TWFG Inc. (Class A)
C+ 69/100 — — 39.8% -0.70% $1.47B Benchmark Subject
STC
Stewart Information Services Corporation
D+ 57/100 12.0x — 5.6% -2.15% $1.39B /stc-vs-twfg →
GSHD
Goosehead Insurance Inc. (Class A)
C- 59/100 60.7x — 36.9% +0.07% $1.69B /gshd-vs-twfg →
OIG
Orion180 Insurance Group Inc. (Class A)
D+ 52/100 — — — -0.41% $974.5M /oig-vs-twfg →
LIFE
Ethos Technologies Inc. (Class A)
C+ 69/100 39.8x — 40.6% -0.53% $2.83B /life-vs-twfg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002007596

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TWFG Inc. (Class A) (TWFG) reported GAAP revenue of $248.5M (+22.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $203.8M , and +44.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $53.5M, and free cash flow of $53.1M (+42.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, TWFG closed FY2025 with $372.3M in total assets against $2.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $248.5M $0 $53.5M $53.1M $372.3M $2.0M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $203.8M $2.7M $40.5M $37.3M $323.4M $4.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $172.0M $0 $30.2M $30.2M — —

3. TWFG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TWFG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, TWFG Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: TWFG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $26.96 (-0.70% 1D, market cap $1.47B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TWFG ranks #158 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TWFG compare to STC and GSHD in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), TWFG carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 39.8%. By comparison, STC (Stewart Information Services Corporation) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 5.6%, cap $1.39B) and GSHD (Goosehead Insurance Inc. (Class A)) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 60.7x, ROIC 36.9%, cap $1.69B). Among the 5-stock peer group, STC leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while LIFE leads on capital efficiency (40.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TWFG?

Per TWFG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002007596), TWFG Inc. (Class A) generated $248.5M in revenue (+22.0% YoY), $0 in net income, and $53.1M in free cash flow against $372.3M in total assets and $2.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TWFG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TWFG last traded at $26.96 (-0.70% on volume of 227,096 shares), positioning the stock +0.94% above its 50-day simple moving average ($26.71) and +16.66% above its 200-day simple moving average ($23.11). Across its 52-week range of $16.56 to $31.30, TWFG sits at the 70.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.1% ($24.51 to $29.41).

TWFG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is TWFG Inc. (Class A) (TWFG)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), TWFG converted $248.5M of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 14.9% operating margin, and $53.1M in free cash flow (21.4% FCF margin).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 69/100 (C+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TWFG — TWFG Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:29:05Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TWFG scores 69 out of 100, a C+ grade, with the verdict "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." Across the five pillars, the fundamental cash engine scores highest at 18 of 20, citing ROIC of 39.8% and an FCF yield of 3.62%, which suggests the operating business generates strong returns on capital relative to the amount invested in it. Insider conviction scores 15 of 20, reflecting SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Whale/13F flow scores 13 of 20 for institutional accumulation and options positioning. Macro regime fit also scores 13 of 20, with a beta of 1.0 and noted sector sensitivity. The forensic balance sheet scores lowest at 10 of 20, citing an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5. For a prospective investor, the profile implies a business with strong capital efficiency that is held back by weaker forensic balance-sheet signals and mixed flow indicators, which is consistent with the rating's "Hold" posture rather than a conviction call in either direction. The stock's current price sits near the upper portion of its 52-week range, so any upside case would depend on the Q3 2026 results and whether institutional and insider flow strengthens, while valuation tradeoffs are reflected in the EV/EBITDA of 35.2 per the market data.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$248.5M$37.0M$0.0MN/A$53.1M$155.9M$2.0M
FY 2024$203.8M$27.9M$2.7MN/A$37.3M$195.8M$4.0M
FY 2023$172.0M$25.4M$0.0MN/A$30.2MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $172.0M in FY 2023 to $248.5M in FY 2025, and operating income rose from $25.4M to $37.0M over the same span. Net income was $0.0M in FY 2025 and $2.7M in FY 2024. Per the market data, the operating margin is 14.9%, while gross and net margins are reported as 0%. ROIC is 39.8%. The Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, per the Roarable RQD rating. Debt was $2.0M at FY 2025 against cash of $155.9M.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts section, the most prominent item is a headline that TWFG will announce its third-quarter 2026 financial results on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, flagged YELLOW under MARKET WIRE. Other headlines from the same feed are flagged YELLOW under MARKET WIRE and reference market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts. The single RISK WATCH item, flagged RED, is a MarketBeat report that the stock fell 4.9%. A Quiver Quantitative report notes the stock was down 8% on the day. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no upstream or downstream dependencies, butterfly links, or proprietary signals are mapped for TWFG. Sector correlation data is not available in source data. For a prospective investor, the practical 2nd-order watch item is the Q3 2026 earnings release, since the source data contains no supply-chain linkages through which other events could transmit to the company.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's EPS and P/E figures, given that the source data marks trailing and forward P/E and TTM EPS as unavailable?
  • What drove the net income figure of $0.0M in FY 2025 despite operating income of $37.0M?
  • Which specific products and customers generate TWFG's revenue?
  • What do the Q3 2026 results, scheduled for November 4, 2026, show relative to prior periods?
  • What is the composition of the institutional and insider holder base, given that holders data is absent?

TWFG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for TWFG Inc. (Class A) (TWFG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TWFG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔴 RISK WATCH StocksToTrade • 1d ago
TWFG Inc. Falls 7%

StocksToTrade report covering TWFG Inc. (Class A) (TWFG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TWFG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $26.96?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TWFG 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TWFG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $29.32 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TWFG (C+ • RQD 69/100) a Buy at $27.15?

Welcome to the TWFG (TWFG Inc. (Class A)) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 69/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Specialty Insurers. Bulls point to capital efficiency (39.8% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $21.99 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $27.15

Pump the brakes on TWFG — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TWFG, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless TWFG Inc. (Class A) expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $34.48 (+27.0%)
Spot @ $27.15

TWFG cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TWFG, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Specialty Insurers and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $27.15 (52-wk range $16.56 - $31.30), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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