MARKET WIREYahoo • 3d ago
UGP or ENB: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?UGP vs. ENB: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?
Why UGP Stock slipped -1.89% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$5.70 -1.89% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.67
Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $6.47B
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Is UGP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (NYSE: UGP) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $5.70 (-1.89% 1D, market cap $6.47B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, UGP ranks #140 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does UGP compare to NFG and NJR in the Energy sector?
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Within the Energy sector (Oil/Gas Transmission), UGP carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, NFG (National Fuel Gas Company) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 14.5x, ROIC 9.7%, cap $7.56B) and NJR (NewJersey Resources Corporation) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 16.1x, ROIC 16.3%, cap $5.40B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NFG leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while NJR leads on capital efficiency (16.3% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UGP?
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For Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity and sector rank #140 in Energy, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.67 (-0.53%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 4.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.6% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UGP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY UGP SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (27% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (25% of score)
SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 4.5% FCF Margin ($181.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$7.79+1.9% Next Q
56
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$7.94-19.4% Next Q
53
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C-$6.40-10.9% Next Q
51
CurrentGrade D$5.70-5.6% Hist 90D α
48
Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a UGP Turnaround Squeeze
While UGP currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($7.25) and Max Pain ($5.99) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.69.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UGP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “UGP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why UGP Stock slipped -1.89% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) slipped -1.89% to $5.70, trading at 45% of its 52-week range ($3.6 – $8.28). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 45% of its 52-week range ($3.6 – $8.28) with RSI-14 at 24.4 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.2% around $5.70 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $181.0M annual free cash flow.
Live UGP Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTYahoo • 4d ago
Should Value Investors Buy Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Stock?Here at Zacks, our focus is on the proven Zacks Rank system, which emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find great stocks. Nevertheless, we are always paying attention to the latest value, growth, and
CATALYSTYahoo • 6d ago
Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Loses 12.8% in 4 Weeks, Here's Why a Trend Reversal May be Around the CornerThe heavy selling pressure might have exhausted for Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) as it is technically in oversold territory now. In addition to this technical measure, strong agreement among Wall Street analysts in revis
CATALYSTYahoo • 7d ago
Down 8.0% in 4 Weeks, Here's Why Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Looks Ripe for a TurnaroundUltrapar Participacoes (UGP) has become technically an oversold stock now, which implies exhaustion of the heavy selling pressure on it. This, combined with strong agreement among Wall Street analysts in revising earning
MARKET WIREFintel • 7d ago
Ultrapar Participações S.A. Announces Sale of 7,599,879 Shares by PátriaCATALYSTSeekingAlpha • 10d ago
Our Top 10 High Growth Dividend Stocks - October 2026Discover a proven method to pick high-growth dividend stocks using dividend growth, sustainability, and momentumâsee the top 10 names to buy now.
CATALYSTYahoo • 10d ago
3 Reasons Why Growth Investors Shouldn't Overlook Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP)Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) could produce exceptional returns because of its solid growth attributes.
CATALYSTYahoo • 11d ago
Best Growth Stocks to Buy for October 23rdUGP, WOOF and MNDY made it to the Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) growth stocks list on October 23, 2026
CATALYSTYahoo • 11d ago
Zacks.com featured highlights include Ultrapar Participacoes, Chatham Lodging, Arcos Dorados, Occidental and Kohl'sUGP, CLDT, ARCO, OXY and KSS offer attractive EV to EBITDA ratios, with projected 2026 earnings growth ranging from 29.6% to 207.7%.
CATALYSTYahoo • 12d ago
5 Value Stocks With Attractive EV-to-EBITDA Ratios to Scoop UpUGP, CLDT, ARCO, OXY and KSS stand out with attractive EV-to-EBITDA ratios and strong earnings outlook.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring UGP)
- ✓Walkthrough of UGP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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UGP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.68%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-03O $5.97H $5.97L $5.70C $5.70VOL 3.78M
RES: $9.07SUP: $7.65SMA50: $7.25SMA200: $5.94
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
UGP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UGP today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UGP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UGP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UGP)
Energy Rank #140 of 211
⚔️ NFG vs UGP Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (UGP vs. NFG, NJR, SR, OGS)
Industry: Oil/Gas Transmission (13 Tracked Issuers)Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) ranks #140 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #74 by equity capitalization ($6.47B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NFG leads on earnings valuation at 14.5x trailing P/E, while NJR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.3% ROIC and — gross margin. NJR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with UGP at 48/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UGP
ACTIVE
Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) | D | 48/100 | — | — | — | -1.89% | $6.47B | Benchmark Subject |
| NFG National Fuel Gas Company | D+ | 58/100 | 14.5x | 90.4% | 9.7% | +0.15% | $7.56B | /nfg-vs-ugp → |
| NJR NewJersey Resources Corporation | B- | 71/100 | 16.1x | — | 16.3% | +1.82% | $5.40B | /njr-vs-ugp → |
| SR Spire Inc. | D | 44/100 | 18.9x | 58.8% | 5.3% | +0.99% | $5.20B | /sr-vs-ugp → |
| OGS ONE Gas Inc. | D | 50/100 | 18.6x | — | 6.2% | +1.78% | $4.94B | /ogs-vs-ugp → |
2. UGP Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics
TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOTUltrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) operates in Oil/Gas Transmission (Energy) with an equity capitalization of $6.47B, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.
3. UGP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs UGP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (NYSE: UGP) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $5.70 (-1.89% 1D, market cap $6.47B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, UGP ranks #140 in composite RQD confidence.
How does UGP compare to NFG and NJR in the Energy sector?
Within the Energy sector (Oil/Gas Transmission), UGP carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, NFG (National Fuel Gas Company) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 14.5x, ROIC 9.7%, cap $7.56B) and NJR (NewJersey Resources Corporation) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 16.1x, ROIC 16.3%, cap $5.40B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NFG leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while NJR leads on capital efficiency (16.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UGP?
For Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity and sector rank #140 in Energy, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is UGP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
UGP last traded at $5.70 (-1.89% on volume of 2,908,358 shares), positioning the stock -21.38% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.25) and -4.04% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.94). Across its 52-week range of $3.60 to $8.28, UGP sits at the 44.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 24.4 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.2% ($5.29 to $6.11).
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D)
✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED
UGP — Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-11-03
1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 48/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $5.70 (-1.89% 1D, market capitalization $6.47B).
- Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
- Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
- Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of N/A, and Debt/Equity of N/A.
2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory
Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Oil/Gas Transmission industry (Energy sector) with an equity market capitalization of $6.47B. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 0% (free cash flow yield of 0%). Within the Oil/Gas Transmission peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.
3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff
- 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 48/100): Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.60 – $8.28 52-week range.
- 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.
4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch
Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the source data.
- Key Question #1: Can UGP sustain or expand its — operating margin and — ROIC against Oil/Gas Transmission peers over the next 4 quarters?
- Key Question #2: Will free cash flow conversion (— FCF yield) strengthen balance-sheet liquidity (Altman Z-Score N/A) toward the $8.28 52-week high?
- Key Question #3: How sensitive is UGP's equity valuation to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?
UGP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share) (UGP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 3d ago
UGP or ENB: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now? UGP vs. ENB: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 4d ago
Should Value Investors Buy Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Stock? Here at Zacks, our focus is on the proven Zacks Rank system, which emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find great stocks. Nevertheless, we are always paying attention to the latest value, growth, and
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 6d ago
Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Loses 12.8% in 4 Weeks, Here's Why a Trend Reversal May be Around the Corner The heavy selling pressure might have exhausted for Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) as it is technically in oversold territory now. In addition to this technical measure, strong agreement among Wall Street analysts in revis
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 7d ago
Down 8.0% in 4 Weeks, Here's Why Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Looks Ripe for a Turnaround Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) has become technically an oversold stock now, which implies exhaustion of the heavy selling pressure on it. This, combined with strong agreement among Wall Street analysts in revising earning
🟡 MARKET WIRE Fintel • 7d ago
Ultrapar Participações S.A. Announces Sale of 7,599,879 Shares by Pátria 🟢 CATALYST SeekingAlpha • 10d ago
Our Top 10 High Growth Dividend Stocks - October 2026 Discover a proven method to pick high-growth dividend stocks using dividend growth, sustainability, and momentumâsee the top 10 names to buy now.
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 10d ago
3 Reasons Why Growth Investors Shouldn't Overlook Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) Ultrapar Participacoes (UGP) could produce exceptional returns because of its solid growth attributes.
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 11d ago
Best Growth Stocks to Buy for October 23rd UGP, WOOF and MNDY made it to the Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) growth stocks list on October 23, 2026
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE
3 Active Posts & Replies
UGP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $5.70?
🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON UGP 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH
🎯 Target: $7.44 (+28.1%)
📌 Pinned Debate The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 13 / 20 with Altman Z of 2.5, Piotroski F of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5, indicating a moderat
Picked up a starter position in UGP in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $5.81. The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 13 / 20 with Altman Z of 2.5, Piotroski F of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5, indicating a moderately sound financial base.. Trading inside a $3.60–$8.28 52-week range with 0.0% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Oil/Gas Transmission multiples expand this quarter.
ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL
@MeanReversion_88 Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Oil/Gas Transmission. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.
ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH
🎯 Target: $4.94 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $5.81 The fundamental cash engine scores 12 / 20 with ROIC at 0% and FCF yield at 0%, showing no measurable return on capital or free cash ge
The fundamental cash engine scores 12 / 20 with ROIC at 0% and FCF yield at 0%, showing no measurable return on capital or free cash generation.. Look at the math on UGP: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for 0.0% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Oil/Gas Transmission demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $5.11 before getting long.