MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 1d ago
Why Frontier (ULCC) stock is trading up todayYahoo Finance report covering Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why ULCC Stock surged +15.19% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$7.43 +15.19% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.62
Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 32/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE E • RED ALERT
Cap $1.49B
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Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ULCC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
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Is ULCC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: ULCC) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 32/100 at a spot price of $7.43 (+15.19% 1D, market cap $1.49B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 4/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ULCC ranks #842 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does ULCC compare to ALGT and JBLU in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), ULCC carries a Roarable E (32/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ALGT (Allegiant Travel Company) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.1%, cap $1.95B) and JBLU (JetBlue Airways Corporation) posts a E grade (22/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.08B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RJET leads on earnings multiple (12.3x) while RJET leads on capital efficiency (11.1% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ULCC?
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Per ULCC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001670076), Frontier Group Holdings Inc. generated $3.72B in revenue (-1.4% YoY), -$137.0M in net income, and -$525.0M in free cash flow against $7.22B in total assets and $313.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.62 (+2.54%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (32/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.7% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ULCC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (32/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ULCC SCORES 32/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (47% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+9/20 pts (28% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 82% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 62.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$5.58-12.2% Next Q
24
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$4.90+12.9% Next Q
27
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$5.53+34.4% Next Q
29
CurrentGrade E$7.43-9.2% Hist 90D α
32
Trajectory: E (24) → E (32)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ULCC Turnaround Squeeze
While ULCC currently carries a cautious 32/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.74) and Max Pain ($7.80) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.82.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ULCC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ULCC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why ULCC Stock surged +15.19% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) surged +15.19% to $7.43, trading at 82% of its 52-week range ($3.02 – $8.4). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 82% of its 52-week range ($3.02 – $8.4) with RSI-14 at 62.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $7.43 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live ULCC Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTThe Motley Fool • 1d ago
Why Frontier Group Holdings Stock Gained Altitude This WeekThe Motley Fool report covering Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIRESimply Wall St • 1d ago
Frontier Group Holdings (Nasdaq:ULCC) - Stock AnalysisSimply Wall St report covering Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 1d ago
Will Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) Report Negative Earnings Next Week? What You Should KnowYahoo Finance report covering Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREStockStory • 1d ago
1 Unpopular Stock That Deserves a Second Chance and 2 We Brush OffStockStory report covering Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREmarketscreener.com • 1d ago
(ULCC) Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. Expects Q4 Adjusted EPS Range $-0.15 - $0.05marketscreener.com report covering Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 1d ago
Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) Is Down 15.2% After Mounting Concerns Over Negative EBITDA And Dilution PotentialYahoo Finance report covering Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREChartMill • 1d ago
US Gap Movers: Top Gap-Up and Gap-Down Stocks in Today's SessionToday's US gap movers include CLRO, EVGO, PERI and NVA on the gap-up list, while DRUG, JDZG, JAGX and SVRN lead the gap-down list.
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 1d ago
5 Top-Ranked Airline Stocks To Buy On IATA's Industry ForecastCATALYSTYahoo • 2d ago
The 5 most interesting analyst questions from Frontier’s Q3 earnings callFrontier’s third quarter was marked by strong revenue and profitability, with results surpassing Wall Street’s expectations and a positive reaction from the market. Management attributed the outperformance to the complet
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ULCC)
- ✓Walkthrough of ULCC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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ULCC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +81.66%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $6.48H $7.43L $6.45C $7.43VOL 3.64M
RES: $8.14SUP: $4.36SMA50: $5.74SMA200: $5.43
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
ULCC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -1.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ULCC today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ULCC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ULCC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ULCC)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #842 of 1009
⚔️ ALGT vs ULCC Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ULCC vs. ALGT, JBLU, AERO, RJET)
Industry: Air Freight/Delivery Services (20 Tracked Issuers)Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) ranks #842 by composite RQD confidence (32/100, grade E) and #456 by equity capitalization ($1.49B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RJET leads on earnings valuation at 12.3x trailing P/E, while RJET leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.1% ROIC and — gross margin. RJET currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 46/100 (D) compared with ULCC at 32/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULCC
ACTIVE
Frontier Group Holdings Inc. | E | 32/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +15.19% | $1.49B | Benchmark Subject |
| ALGT Allegiant Travel Company | D- | 35/100 | — | — | 1.1% | +7.35% | $1.95B | /algt-vs-ulcc → |
| JBLU JetBlue Airways Corporation | E | 22/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +11.23% | $1.08B | /jblu-vs-ulcc → |
| AERO Grupo Aeromexico S.A.B. de C.V. (each representing ten (10) ) | D | 45/100 | — | — | — | +1.60% | $2.18B | /aero-vs-ulcc → |
| RJET Republic Airways Holdings Inc. | D | 46/100 | 12.3x | — | 11.1% | +1.66% | $904.6M | /rjet-vs-ulcc → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001670076 ↗In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) reported GAAP revenue of $3.72B (-1.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.77B , and +3.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$137.0M, operating cash flow of -$525.0M, and free cash flow of -$525.0M (-540.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, ULCC closed FY2025 with $7.22B in total assets against $313.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.40, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $3.72B | -$137.0M | -$525.0M | -$525.0M | $7.22B | $313.0M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $3.77B | $85.0M | -$82.0M | -$82.0M | $6.15B | $241.0M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $3.59B | -$11.0M | -$261.0M | -$261.0M | — | — |
3. ULCC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs ULCC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: ULCC) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 32/100 at a spot price of $7.43 (+15.19% 1D, market cap $1.49B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 4/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ULCC ranks #842 in composite RQD confidence.
How does ULCC compare to ALGT and JBLU in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), ULCC carries a Roarable E (32/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ALGT (Allegiant Travel Company) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.1%, cap $1.95B) and JBLU (JetBlue Airways Corporation) posts a E grade (22/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.08B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RJET leads on earnings multiple (12.3x) while RJET leads on capital efficiency (11.1% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ULCC?
Per ULCC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001670076), Frontier Group Holdings Inc. generated $3.72B in revenue (-1.4% YoY), -$137.0M in net income, and -$525.0M in free cash flow against $7.22B in total assets and $313.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is ULCC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
ULCC last traded at $7.43 (+15.19% on volume of 7,124,256 shares), positioning the stock +29.44% above its 50-day simple moving average ($5.74) and +36.83% above its 200-day simple moving average ($5.43). Across its 52-week range of $3.02 to $8.40, ULCC sits at the 82.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 62.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($6.50 to $8.36).
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 32/100 (E)
✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED
ULCC — Frontier Group Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31
1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 32/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $7.43 (+15.19% 1D, market capitalization $1.49B).
- Fundamental Cash Engine (3/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -4.0%, and free cash flow yield of —.
- Whale 13F & Options Flow (15/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
- Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (4/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.40, Piotroski F-Score of 1/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.64x.
2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory
Frontier Group Holdings Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector and Air Freight/Delivery Services industry. The sector and industry classification is the only business description provided.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) reported $3.72B in annual revenue (up from $3.77B in FY2024, -1.4% YoY) and -$137.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($3.59B revenue, -$11.0M net income) through FY2025, ULCC scaled operating cash flow to -$525.0M and free cash flow to -$525.0M, backed by $7.22B in total assets against $313.0M in total debt.
3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff
- 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 32/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 15/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 3/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.02 – $8.40 52-week range.
- 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -4.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.
4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch
Upstream and downstream dependencies: — Sector correlations: — 2nd-order bottlenecks: — The absence of mapped links means this dossier cannot trace how supplier or customer disruptions would propagate to ULCC.
- Key Question #1: Can ULCC sustain or expand its -4.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Air Freight/Delivery Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
- Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.72B and free cash flow of -$525.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $313.0M in total debt?
- Key Question #3: How sensitive is ULCC's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?
ULCC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago
Why Frontier (ULCC) stock is trading up today Yahoo Finance report covering Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟢 CATALYST The Motley Fool • 1d ago
Why Frontier Group Holdings Stock Gained Altitude This Week The Motley Fool report covering Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago
Frontier Group Holdings (Nasdaq:ULCC) - Stock Analysis Simply Wall St report covering Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago
Will Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) Report Negative Earnings Next Week? What You Should Know Yahoo Finance report covering Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE StockStory • 1d ago
1 Unpopular Stock That Deserves a Second Chance and 2 We Brush Off StockStory report covering Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE marketscreener.com • 1d ago
(ULCC) Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. Expects Q4 Adjusted EPS Range $-0.15 - $0.05 marketscreener.com report covering Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago
Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) Is Down 15.2% After Mounting Concerns Over Negative EBITDA And Dilution Potential Yahoo Finance report covering Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE ChartMill • 1d ago
US Gap Movers: Top Gap-Up and Gap-Down Stocks in Today's Session Today's US gap movers include CLRO, EVGO, PERI and NVA on the gap-up list, while DRUG, JDZG, JAGX and SVRN lead the gap-down list.
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE
3 Active Posts & Replies
ULCC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $7.43?
🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ULCC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH
🎯 Target: $7.61 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate Institutional positioning scores 16/20 in the Roarable RQD rating, the strongest pillar, while the stock trades up 5.02% on 5,217,749 s
Here is why I am bullish on ULCC here at $6.45: Institutional positioning scores 16/20 in the Roarable RQD rating, the strongest pillar, while the stock trades up 5.02% on 5,217,749 shares of volume.. Compare ULCC's -4.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against the rest of Air Freight/Delivery Services. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $6.13 are getting bought.
VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL
@ShortSeller_Dan Shorting a 15/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $6.45 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.
SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH
🎯 Target: $5.16 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $6.45 ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of 0%, with FY 2025 free cash flow of -$525.0M against a net loss of -$137.0M, drive a 1/20 Fundamental Cash
ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of 0%, with FY 2025 free cash flow of -$525.0M against a net loss of -$137.0M, drive a 1/20 Fundamental Cash Engine score.. Look at the math on ULCC: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -35.0% ROIC and -4.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Air Freight/Delivery Services demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $5.68 before getting long.