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SSB (60) WTFC (70) BPOP (67) CFR (60) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$137.46 +2.22% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $137.75

UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $10.21B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on UMBF Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is UMBF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, UMB Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: UMBF) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $137.46 (+2.22% 1D, market cap $10.21B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, UMBF ranks #164 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does UMBF compare to SSB and WTFC in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), UMBF carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.7x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 2.5%. By comparison, SSB (SouthState Bank Corporation) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 12.9x, ROIC 3.0%, cap $10.20B) and WTFC (Wintrust Financial Corporation) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 12.6x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $10.28B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BPOP leads on earnings multiple (12.1x) while CFR leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UMBF?
β–Ό

Per UMBF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000101382), UMB Financial Corporation generated $2.32B in revenue (+59.2% YoY), $702.4M in net income, and $978.1M in free cash flow against $73.09B in total assets and $29.43B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $137.75 (+0.21%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) β€’ 42.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 56.4% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C+
025507510067
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C Β· Rk B-
Cash (14)Whales (10)SEC (15)Macro (13)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.1% Base Target
$169 Bull$143 Base$112 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE UMBF RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UMBF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±5.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY UMBF SCORES 67/100 (C+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 8/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
59
Grade C$128.86+3.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
62
Grade C+$132.91-0.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
64
Grade C+$132.34+3.9% Next Q
Current
67
Grade C+$137.46+1.6% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C (59) β†’ C+ (67)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the UMBF Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, UMBF faces multiple-compression risk if 14.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($135.20) or 200D SMA ($131.50) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($143.03) toward Bear Floor ($111.56).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UMBFβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œUMBF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
3.11% Total Yield
1.31% Cash ($1.80/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
88/100 β€’ FORTRESS PAYOUT
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
14% of FCF
8 consecutive years of payout growth
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (7.3% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years β†’ $20,230

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $629/yr
$10.7K
Yr 1
$11.5K
Yr 2
$12.4K
Yr 3
$13.3K
Yr 4
$14.2K
Yr 5
$15.3K
Yr 6
$16.4K
Yr 7
$17.6K
Yr 8
$18.9K
Yr 9
$20.2K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Cash-Flow & Quality Compounder Desk

Cash-Fortress Compounders: Auditing Free Cash Flow & Yield Safety in UMBF & A-Rated Leaders

  • βœ“12-month Bull/Base/Bear fair-value walkthrough on UMBF and its top sector peer
  • βœ“Top Roarable A-Rated cash compounders with verified executive & 13F accumulation
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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UMBF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.22%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $136.2H $137.5L $134.5C $137.5VOL 616.2K
RES: $165.7SUP: $121.2SMA50: $135.2SMA200: $131.5
$155.8$145.4$134.9$124.5$114.0RES $165.7SUP $121.2$137.52026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UMBF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ UMBF Butterfly Map β†’ + Track UMBF β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
6.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +59.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UMBF today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UMBF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UMBF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UMBF)

Financials Rank #164 of 1097 βš”οΈ SSB vs UMBF Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (UMBF vs. SSB, WTFC, BPOP, CFR)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) ranks #164 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #182 by equity capitalization ($10.21B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BPOP leads on earnings valuation at 12.1x trailing P/E, while CFR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.4% ROIC and β€” gross margin. WTFC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with UMBF at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
UMBF ACTIVE
UMB Financial Corporation
C+ 67/100 14.7x β€” 2.5% +2.22% $10.21B Benchmark Subject
SSB
SouthState Bank Corporation
C- 60/100 12.9x β€” 3.0% +1.75% $10.20B /ssb-vs-umbf β†’
WTFC
Wintrust Financial Corporation
B- 70/100 12.6x β€” 3.1% +3.29% $10.28B /wtfc-vs-umbf β†’
BPOP
Popular Inc.
C+ 67/100 12.1x β€” 3.1% +1.50% $9.99B /bpop-vs-umbf β†’
CFR
Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc.
C- 60/100 15.1x β€” 3.4% +1.71% $9.80B /cfr-vs-umbf β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0000101382 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) reported GAAP revenue of $2.32B (+59.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.46B , and +100.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $702.4M, operating cash flow of $1.03B, and free cash flow of $978.1M (+376.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, UMBF closed FY2025 with $73.09B in total assets against $29.43B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.32B $702.4M $1.03B $978.1M $73.09B $29.43B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.46B $441.2M $225.3M $205.3M $50.41B $21.12B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.16B $350.0M $472.6M $472.6M $5.69B $1.33B

3. UMBF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UMBF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, UMB Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: UMBF) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $137.46 (+2.22% 1D, market cap $10.21B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, UMBF ranks #164 in composite RQD confidence.

How does UMBF compare to SSB and WTFC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), UMBF carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.7x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 2.5%. By comparison, SSB (SouthState Bank Corporation) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 12.9x, ROIC 3.0%, cap $10.20B) and WTFC (Wintrust Financial Corporation) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 12.6x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $10.28B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BPOP leads on earnings multiple (12.1x) while CFR leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UMBF?

Per UMBF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000101382), UMB Financial Corporation generated $2.32B in revenue (+59.2% YoY), $702.4M in net income, and $978.1M in free cash flow against $73.09B in total assets and $29.43B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is UMBF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UMBF last traded at $137.46 (+2.22% on volume of 810,456 shares), positioning the stock +1.67% above its 50-day simple moving average ($135.20) and +4.53% above its 200-day simple moving average ($131.50). Across its 52-week range of $103.38 to $153.32, UMBF sits at the 68.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±5.1% ($130.45 to $144.47).

Direct Sub-Reports: UMBF RQD Cockpit UMBF 12M Forecast UMBF Earnings & Move UMBF Dividends & DRIP UMBF Insiders & 13F UMBF Whale Options UMBF Profit Sankey UMBF News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 67/100 (C+) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

UMBF β€” UMB Financial Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 67/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $137.46 (+2.22% 1D, market capitalization $10.21B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 2.5%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of 29.6%, and free cash flow yield of 9.46%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.02x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Major Banks industry..3B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) reported $2.32B in annual revenue (up from $1.46B in FY2024, +59.2% YoY) and $702.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.16B revenue, $350.0M net income) through FY2025, UMBF scaled operating cash flow to $1.03B and free cash flow to $978.1M, backed by $73.09B in total assets against $29.43B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (C+ β€’ RQD 67/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $103.38 – $153.32 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 14.7x trailing P/E and 33.4x EV/EBITDA against 29.6% operating margins and a 1.02x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies: β€” Sector correlations: β€” Second-order bottlenecks: β€” For a prospective investor, the practical takeaway is that the rating's sector sensitivity pillar is the only available indicator of macro linkage, and it does not itemize the channels.

  • Key Question #1: Can UMBF sustain or expand its 29.6% operating margin and 2.5% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.32B and free cash flow of $978.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $29.43B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is UMBF's 13.7x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.02x)?

UMBF Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to UMBF Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

UMBF Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $137.46?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON UMBF 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on UMBF:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Institutional Buy-Side πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $173.47 (+29.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Strong cash generation with a 9.46% FCF yield, clean forensic metrics (Piotroski F 8/9), and institutional accumulation support the rat

The street is overcomplicating UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF). Strong cash generation with a 9.46% FCF yield, clean forensic metrics (Piotroski F 8/9), and institutional accumulation support the rating.. With an RQD score of 67/100 (C+) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 15/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $145.23.

CapAlloc_Nerd πŸ‚ BULL

@DeepValue_CFA Agree on the RQD 67/100 quality, though with 1.02 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $134.47 and keeping dry powder in case we test $125.06.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $100.85 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $134.47

Reported debt rose from $1.33B to $29.43B over two years while ROIC sits at just 2.5%, and EV/EBITDA of 33.4 is far above the P/E.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short UMBF above $134.47. Reported debt rose from $1.33B to $29.43B over two years while ROIC sits at just 2.5%, and EV/EBITDA of 33.4 is far above the P/E.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20) and FCF yield (9.46%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $153.32.

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