Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 29/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-03, Upstream Bio Inc. (NASDAQ: UPB) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $3.35 (-1.76% 1D, market cap $186.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, UPB ranks #833 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), UPB carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ZNTL (Zentalis Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $185.6M) and YARW (Yarrow Bioscience Inc.) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $185.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, UPB leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while UPB leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).
Per UPB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002022626), Upstream Bio Inc. generated $2.9M in revenue (+20.4% YoY), -$143.4M in net income, and -$133.4M in free cash flow against $353.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
Altman Z-Score 6.01 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9
Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
While UPB currently carries a cautious 29/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.86) and Max Pain ($3.52) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $35.36.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) slipped -1.76% to $3.35, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($2.68 – $33.68). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
kalkine.ca report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
https://www.siam.in/ report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
kalkine.ca report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Syndax (SNDX) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of -5.77% and +2.72%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +20.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UPB today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UPB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) ranks #833 by composite RQD confidence (29/100, grade E) and #581 by equity capitalization ($186.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UPB leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while UPB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. ADCT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 36/100 (D-) compared with UPB at 29/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPB
ACTIVE
Upstream Bio Inc. | E | 29/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -1.76% | $186.8M | Benchmark Subject |
| ZNTL Zentalis Pharmaceuticals Inc. | E | 34/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -5.61% | $185.6M | /zntl-vs-upb → |
| YARW Yarrow Bioscience Inc. | E | 26/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -9.90% | $185.2M | /yarw-vs-upb → |
| WHWK Whitehawk Therapeutics Inc. | E | 24/100 | — | 89.4% | -35.0% | -3.70% | $184.7M | /whwk-vs-upb → |
| ADCT ADC Therapeutics SA | D- | 36/100 | — | 92.9% | -35.0% | +0.65% | $195.3M | /adct-vs-upb → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) reported GAAP revenue of $2.9M (+20.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.4M , and +19.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$143.4M, operating cash flow of -$133.3M, and free cash flow of -$133.4M (-123.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, UPB closed FY2025 with $353.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.01, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $2.9M | -$143.4M | -$133.3M | -$133.4M | $353.8M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $2.4M | -$62.8M | -$59.2M | -$59.7M | $481.7M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $2.4M | -$20.5M | -$37.9M | -$37.9M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-03, Upstream Bio Inc. (NASDAQ: UPB) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $3.35 (-1.76% 1D, market cap $186.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, UPB ranks #833 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), UPB carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ZNTL (Zentalis Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $185.6M) and YARW (Yarrow Bioscience Inc.) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $185.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, UPB leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while UPB leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).
Per UPB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002022626), Upstream Bio Inc. generated $2.9M in revenue (+20.4% YoY), -$143.4M in net income, and -$133.4M in free cash flow against $353.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
UPB last traded at $3.35 (-1.76% on volume of 936,317 shares), positioning the stock -31.07% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.86) and -63.35% below its 200-day simple moving average ($9.14). Across its 52-week range of $2.68 to $33.68, UPB sits at the 2.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.93 to $3.77).
Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 29/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $3.35 (-1.76% 1D, market capitalization $186.8M).
Upstream Bio Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry..2B. Reported revenue across the three periods is small, at $2.4M to $2.9M.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) reported $2.9M in annual revenue (up from $2.4M in FY2024, +20.4% YoY) and -$143.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.4M revenue, -$20.5M net income) through FY2025, UPB scaled operating cash flow to -$133.3M and free cash flow to -$133.4M, backed by $353.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt.
Operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (Health Care), UPB carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
kalkine.ca report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
https://www.siam.in/ report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
kalkine.ca report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering Upstream Bio Inc. (UPB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Long UPB at $3.41 targeting $4.30. Balance sheet metrics (Altman Z 6.01, Debt/Equity 0.5) are comparatively less weak than its earnings and cash-flow metrics.. Institutional whale score is 3/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $2.68 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.
@RiskArb_Desk Shorting a 3/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $3.41 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.
Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short UPB above $3.41. ROIC of -35% and an FCF yield of 0% with cash falling from $325.9M to $101.6M over two years.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20) and FCF yield (0.0%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $33.68.
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