USA Rare Earth Inc. (USAR) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$9.62 -8.55% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.45

USA Rare Earth Inc. (USAR) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $3.95B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is USAR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, USA Rare Earth Inc. (NASDAQ: USAR) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $9.62 (-8.55% 1D, market cap $3.95B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, USAR ranks #199 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does USAR compare to ERO and AUGO in the Materials sector?
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Within the Materials sector (Metal Mining), USAR carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 11.9%, and ROIC of -14.9%. By comparison, ERO (Ero Copper Corp.) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $3.25B) and AUGO (Aura Minerals Inc.) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $6.56B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AUGO leads on earnings multiple (32.8x) while AUGO leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for USAR?
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Per USAR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001970622), USA Rare Earth Inc. generated $1.6M in revenue, -$297.6M in net income, and -$49.1M in free cash flow against $695.0M in total assets and $86.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.45 (-1.73%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510039
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D+
Cash (8)Whales (5)SEC (14)Macro (7)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.5% Base Target
$34 Bull$9 Base$7 Bear
📬 FREE USAR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for USAR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY USAR SCORES 39/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (36% of score)

Altman Z-Score 11.88 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 11.9% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
47
Grade D$11.28-10.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
44
Grade D$10.06+3.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
42
Grade D$10.40-7.5% Next Q
Current
39
Grade D-$9.62-7.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (47) → D- (39)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a USAR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While USAR currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($13.97) and Max Pain ($10.10) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $34.44.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $USAR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “USAR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
41.630 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
11.88>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
4 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE3% OF RANGE
L: $9$9.62H: $33
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 8 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 10 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on USAR

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (40)

-14.9% ROIC with 11.9% gross margin and -1.24% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (70)

Altman-Z 11.88 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (28)

10/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 7/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like USAR
  • ✓Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring USAR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of USAR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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USAR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -62.39%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $10.48H $10.52L $9.62C $9.62VOL 10.61M
RES: $10.90SUP: $8.50SMA50: $13.97SMA200: $18.83
$34.47$27.54$20.61$13.67$6.74RES $10.90SUP $8.50$9.622026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

USAR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
22.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on USAR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for USAR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for USAR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (USAR)

Materials Rank #199 of 270 ⚔️ ERO vs USAR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (USAR vs. ERO, AUGO, BVN, MP)

Industry: Metal Mining (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, USA Rare Earth Inc. (USAR) ranks #199 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #84 by equity capitalization ($3.95B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AUGO leads on earnings valuation at 32.8x trailing P/E, while AUGO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. AUGO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with USAR at 39/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
USAR ACTIVE
USA Rare Earth Inc.
D- 39/100 — 11.9% -14.9% -8.55% $3.95B Benchmark Subject
ERO
Ero Copper Corp.
D+ 52/100 — — — -6.65% $3.25B /ero-vs-usar →
AUGO
Aura Minerals Inc.
C- 59/100 32.8x — 9.9% -15.43% $6.56B /augo-vs-usar →
BVN
Buenaventura Mining Company Inc.
D 45/100 — — — -4.24% $7.01B /bvn-vs-usar →
MP
MP Materials Corp.
E 31/100 — — -6.8% -4.97% $7.42B /mp-vs-usar →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001970622

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), USA Rare Earth Inc. (USAR) reported GAAP revenue of $1.6M (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$297.6M, operating cash flow of -$49.0M, and free cash flow of -$49.1M (-277.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, USAR closed FY2025 with $695.0M in total assets against $86.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 11.88, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.6M -$297.6M -$49.0M -$49.1M $695.0M $86.3M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $0 -$15.7M -$13.0M -$13.0M $69.1M $6.8M

3. USAR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is USAR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, USA Rare Earth Inc. (NASDAQ: USAR) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $9.62 (-8.55% 1D, market cap $3.95B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, USAR ranks #199 in composite RQD confidence.

How does USAR compare to ERO and AUGO in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Metal Mining), USAR carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 11.9%, and ROIC of -14.9%. By comparison, ERO (Ero Copper Corp.) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $3.25B) and AUGO (Aura Minerals Inc.) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $6.56B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AUGO leads on earnings multiple (32.8x) while AUGO leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for USAR?

Per USAR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001970622), USA Rare Earth Inc. generated $1.6M in revenue, -$297.6M in net income, and -$49.1M in free cash flow against $695.0M in total assets and $86.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is USAR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

USAR last traded at $9.62 (-8.55% on volume of 15,895,054 shares), positioning the stock -31.14% below its 50-day simple moving average ($13.97) and -48.91% below its 200-day simple moving average ($18.83). Across its 52-week range of $8.89 to $32.80, USAR sits at the 3.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($8.42 to $10.82).

USAR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell USAR stock right now?

USA Rare Earth Inc. (USAR) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 39/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-15% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is USAR's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

USAR's 12-month base price target is $8.8 (range $6.86 to $34.44), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 39/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

USAR — USA Rare Earth Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:22:38Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, USAR scores 39 out of 100 with a letter grade of D-, labeled "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." Pillar by pillar: the Fundamental Cash Engine scores 8/20, reflecting ROIC of -14.9% and FCF yield of -1.24%, which points to a business not yet generating returns on invested capital. Whale 13F Flow scores 5/20 and Insider Conviction scores 5/20, indicating weak institutional and insider support signals in the rating's inputs. Macro Regime Fit scores 7/20 with Beta of 0.91 and sector sensitivity noted. Forensic Balance Sheet scores 14/20, the strongest pillar, citing Altman Z 11.88, Piotroski F 4/9, and Debt/Equity 0.16. For a prospective investor, the rating's central message is that the balance sheet appears comparatively sturdy while operating cash flow and ownership-flow signals are weak. Upside drivers would need to come from operating improvement that the cash-flow metrics do not yet show; the valuation tradeoff is a forward P/E of 29 alongside negative trailing EPS of -0.79.

Business

Per the profile, USA Rare Earth Inc. (USAR) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Materials sector, operating within the Metal Mining industry. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 11.9%. Source data does not describe its specific products, customers, or revenue model.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$1.6M$-59.5M$-297.6MN/A$-49.1M$359.9M$86.3M
FY 2024$0.0M$-15.6M$-15.7MN/A$-13.0M$16.8M$6.8M

Per the market data, operating margin and net margin are each -60% and ROIC is -14.9%. Per the Roarable RQD rating forensic inputs, the Altman Z-Score is 11.88, the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.16. Per the SEC financials, cash rose to $359.9M in FY 2025 against debt of $86.3M, while net income and free cash flow remained negative in both reported periods.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed (all tagged to USAR), six items appear with mixed impact labels. A GREEN-tagged CATALYST item from Seeking Alpha argues the price assumes a Western premium that the contract does not promise. A RED-tagged RISK WATCH item from 24/7 Wall St. reports USAR and MP Materials falling 5% as rare earth stocks slid together, with Critical Metals declining 3%. Remaining items, from Yahoo Finance, The Motley Fool, and Trefis, are tagged MARKET WIRE and are general coverage of market action and positioning. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply_chain is NONE and no butterfly links or proprietary signals are provided.

Open Questions

  • What drives the gap between FY 2025 net income of $-297.6M and operating income of $-59.5M, and how much of it is recurring?
  • Why is forward P/E given as 29 while trailing EPS is -0.79, and what earnings path does the forward figure assume?
  • What are the company's revenue sources and customer contracts, given revenue of $1.6M against a gross margin of 11.9%?
  • What explains cash rising from $16.8M to $359.9M between FY 2024 and FY 2025, and what is the funding source?
  • Who are the institutional and insider holders behind the whale and insider pillar scores of 5/20 each?

USAR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for USA Rare Earth Inc. (USAR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to USAR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

USAR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $9.62?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON USAR 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on USAR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.26 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is USAR (D- • RQD 39/100) a Buy at $10.52?

Welcome to the USAR (USA Rare Earth Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 39/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Metal Mining. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.10 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $10.52

Pump the brakes on USAR — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on USAR, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 11.9% gross margins. Unless USA Rare Earth Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $12.73 (+21.0%)
Spot @ $10.52

USAR cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on USAR, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Metal Mining and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $10.52 (52-wk range $8.89 - $32.80), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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