RISK WATCHInvesting.com • 11h ago
Valneva stock falls after UK revokes Ixchiq vaccine approvalInvesting.com report covering Valneva SE (VALN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why VALN Stock dropped -4.55% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$5.45 -4.55% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.40
Valneva SE (VALN) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $541.8M
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Is VALN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Valneva SE (NASDAQ: VALN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $5.45 (-4.55% 1D, market cap $541.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, VALN ranks #323 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does VALN compare to ETRA and ENTX in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), VALN carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, ETRA (Electra Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $542.3M) and ENTX (Entera Bio Ltd.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -33.6%, cap $542.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VALN leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ENTX leads on capital efficiency (-33.6% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VALN?
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For Valneva SE (VALN), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #323 in Health Care, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.39 (-1.01%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.6% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VALN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY VALN SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (27% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (25% of score)
SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 0.4% FCF Margin ($15.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$5.93-7.1% Next Q
56
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$5.51-1.8% Next Q
53
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C-$5.41+0.7% Next Q
51
CurrentGrade D$5.45-5.6% Hist 90D α
48
Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VALN Turnaround Squeeze
While VALN currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.16) and Max Pain ($5.72) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $12.79.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VALN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “VALN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why VALN Stock dropped -4.55% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Valneva SE (VALN) dropped -4.55% to $5.45, trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($4.75 – $12.18). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($4.75 – $12.18) with RSI-14 at 48.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±6.7% around $5.45 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $15.2M annual free cash flow.
Live VALN Headlines & Catalysts
RISK WATCHGuruFocus • 14h ago
Valneva SE (VALN) Shares Drop After UK Revokes Chikungunya VacciGuruFocus report covering Valneva SE (VALN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 17h ago
Valneva Says UK Revokes Chikungunya Virus Vaccine's Marketing Authorization; Shares Down Pre-BellYahoo Finance report covering Valneva SE (VALN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
RISK WATCHSeeking Alpha • 20h ago
Valneva falls as UK revokes marketing authorization for chikungunya vaccineSeeking Alpha report covering Valneva SE (VALN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIRETradingView • 23h ago
Weekly Recap: UK authorization revoked and Brazil 61,000+ vaccinatedTradingView report covering Valneva SE (VALN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREBigGo Finance • 1d ago
Valneva Shares Slide After UK Regulator Pulls Ixchiq Vaccine LicenseBigGo Finance report covering Valneva SE (VALN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREhttps://www.siam.in/ • 1d ago
Valneva SE (VALN) Slips to $5.61 as Shares Test Lower End of Recent Range - Fund Manager Surveyhttps://www.siam.in/ report covering Valneva SE (VALN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREhttps://www.dars.gov.et/ • 1d ago
Valneva (VALN) Slips 1.78% to $5.51 as Shares Sit Mid-Range Between Key Levels - Fast Moving Stockshttps://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering Valneva SE (VALN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
CATALYSTYahoo • 12d ago
MHRA revokes approval for Valneva’s Ixchiq due to safety frailtiesThe market withdrawal caps a tumultuous few years for the chikungunya vaccine amid related adverse events.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 19d ago
Valneva to Present and Hold Investor Meetings at Upcoming U.S. and European Healthcare ConferencesLyon (France), October 14, 2026 – Valneva SE (Nasdaq: VALN; Euronext Paris: VLA), a specialty vaccine company, today announced that its senior management will present and participate in meetings with institutional invest
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VALN)
- ✓Walkthrough of VALN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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VALN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +5.42%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $5.74H $5.74L $5.45C $5.45VOL 11.5K
RES: $7.86SUP: $5.30SMA50: $6.16SMA200: $6.80
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
VALN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VALN today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VALN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VALN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VALN)
Health Care Rank #323 of 1016
⚔️ ETRA vs VALN Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (VALN vs. ETRA, ENTX, SRZN, RGNX)
Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Valneva SE (VALN) ranks #323 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #435 by equity capitalization ($541.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VALN leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while ENTX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -33.6% ROIC and 0.0% gross margin. VALN currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 48/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALN
ACTIVE
Valneva SE | D | 48/100 | — | — | — | -4.55% | $541.8M | Benchmark Subject |
| ETRA Electra Therapeutics Inc. | D- | 43/100 | — | — | — | -6.25% | $542.3M | /etra-vs-valn → |
| ENTX Entera Bio Ltd. | D- | 40/100 | — | 0.0% | -33.6% | +2.56% | $542.6M | /entx-vs-valn → |
| SRZN Surrozen Inc. | D- | 38/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -1.43% | $524.4M | /srzn-vs-valn → |
| RGNX REGENXBIO Inc. | E | 27/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -2.83% | $489.2M | /rgnx-vs-valn → |
2. VALN Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics
TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOTValneva SE (VALN) operates in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (Health Care) with an equity capitalization of $541.8M, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.
3. VALN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs VALN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-02, Valneva SE (NASDAQ: VALN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $5.45 (-4.55% 1D, market cap $541.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, VALN ranks #323 in composite RQD confidence.
How does VALN compare to ETRA and ENTX in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), VALN carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, ETRA (Electra Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $542.3M) and ENTX (Entera Bio Ltd.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -33.6%, cap $542.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VALN leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ENTX leads on capital efficiency (-33.6% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VALN?
For Valneva SE (VALN), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #323 in Health Care, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is VALN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
VALN last traded at $5.45 (-4.55% on volume of 7,932 shares), positioning the stock -11.53% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.16) and -19.85% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.80). Across its 52-week range of $4.75 to $12.18, VALN sits at the 9.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.7% ($5.08 to $5.82).
VALN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is VALN stock moving today?
Why VALN Stock dropped -4.55% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D)
✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED
VALN — Valneva SE: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T14:15:41Z
Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Per the Roarable RQD rating, VALN scores 48 out of 100, a letter grade of D, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are:
- Fundamental Cash Engine (12 / 20): The rating cites ROIC of 0% and FCF yield of 0%. The pillar shows no reported return on capital or free-cash generation in the source data.
- Whale 13F Flow (5 / 20): Institutional accumulation and options positioning scored lowest among the pillars. No holder detail is provided in the source data to explain the score.
- Insider Conviction (9 / 20): SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow scored below the midpoint. No underlying trade records are provided in the source data.
- Macro Regime Fit (9 / 20): Beta is 1.0 with a sector sensitivity component; the pillar scored below midpoint.
- Forensic Balance Sheet (13 / 20): Altman Z of 2.5, Piotroski F of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5 provide the strongest support among the pillars.
For a prospective investor, the rating reflects weak cash-generation signals and institutional/insider flow, partly offset by a moderate balance-sheet profile. The "Distribution Warning" label indicates the rating model reads the flow signals as negative. The rating is a model output from the source data and does not constitute personalized advice.
Business
Valneva SE (VALN) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) industry, per the profile. The company's products, customers, and revenue model are not described in the source data. Not available in source data for the revenue model details. Recent news references a chikungunya vaccine marketing authorization in the UK (see Recent Catalysts).
Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis
Six news items are provided, all related to VALN and all referencing the UK revocation of the chikungunya vaccine's marketing authorization:
- RED / RISK WATCH: Investing.com and GuruFocus both report the share decline following the UK revocation of Ixchiq approval; Seeking Alpha and a separate report also carry the RED / RISK WATCH label.
- YELLOW / MARKET WIRE: Yahoo Finance, TradingView (weekly recap also referencing Brazil vaccination figures of 61,000+), and BigGo Finance carry the YELLOW / MARKET WIRE label.
The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.
Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples
Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are not available in source data.
Open Questions
- What is the revenue, cash-flow, and profit history behind the 0% margins and ROIC reported in the market data?
- What is the scope and timing of the UK marketing-authorization revocation for the chikungunya vaccine, and what share of revenue it represents?
- What are the P/E, EV/EBITDA, and EPS figures, which are absent from the source data?
- Which institutional holders and insiders account for the whale and insider pillar scores?
- What is the company's cash and debt position in dollar terms, since only the Debt/Equity ratio is provided?
VALN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Valneva SE (VALN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
🔴 RISK WATCH Investing.com • 11h ago
Valneva stock falls after UK revokes Ixchiq vaccine approval Investing.com report covering Valneva SE (VALN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🔴 RISK WATCH GuruFocus • 14h ago
Valneva SE (VALN) Shares Drop After UK Revokes Chikungunya Vacci GuruFocus report covering Valneva SE (VALN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 17h ago
Valneva Says UK Revokes Chikungunya Virus Vaccine's Marketing Authorization; Shares Down Pre-Bell Yahoo Finance report covering Valneva SE (VALN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🔴 RISK WATCH Seeking Alpha • 20h ago
Valneva falls as UK revokes marketing authorization for chikungunya vaccine Seeking Alpha report covering Valneva SE (VALN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 23h ago
Weekly Recap: UK authorization revoked and Brazil 61,000+ vaccinated TradingView report covering Valneva SE (VALN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE BigGo Finance • 1d ago
Valneva Shares Slide After UK Regulator Pulls Ixchiq Vaccine License BigGo Finance report covering Valneva SE (VALN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE https://www.siam.in/ • 1d ago
Valneva SE (VALN) Slips to $5.61 as Shares Test Lower End of Recent Range - Fund Manager Survey https://www.siam.in/ report covering Valneva SE (VALN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE https://www.dars.gov.et/ • 1d ago
Valneva (VALN) Slips 1.78% to $5.51 as Shares Sit Mid-Range Between Key Levels - Fast Moving Stocks https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering Valneva SE (VALN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE
3 Active Posts & Replies
VALN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $5.45?
🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON VALN 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST
🎯 Target: $6.17 (+8.1%)
📌 Pinned Debate 🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is VALN (D • RQD 48/100) a Buy at $5.71?
Welcome to the VALN (Valneva SE) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 48/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances). Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH
🎯 Target: $4.57 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $5.71 Pump the brakes on VALN — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on VALN, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Valneva SE expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH
🎯 Target: $7.02 (+22.9%)
Spot @ $5.71 VALN cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on VALN, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $5.71 (52-wk range $4.75 - $12.18), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.