ROARABLE
FREE $100K
My Trading Account →
▾
Trading Profile Active
Active Trader
Verified Trader
⚡ My $100K Trading Account → ★ My Saved Watchlist →
🟢 My $100K Account → Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Financials / VEL / options
BTGO (40) QFIN (54) TRON (26) GAIN (37) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$16.14 +2.67% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.19

Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $620.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on VEL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is VEL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Velocity Financial Inc. (NYSE: VEL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $16.14 (+2.67% 1D, market cap $620.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, VEL ranks #653 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does VEL compare to BTGO and QFIN in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), VEL carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 15.6%. By comparison, BTGO (BitGo Holdings Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $624.2M) and QFIN (Qfin Holdings Inc.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 27.2%, cap $629.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VEL leads on earnings multiple (6.0x) while GAIN leads on capital efficiency (31.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VEL?
▼

Per VEL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001692376), Velocity Financial Inc. generated $3.10B in revenue (+33.5% YoY), $105.0M in net income, and $17.9M in free cash flow against $7.38B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.19 (+0.29%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510050
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D · Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (8)SEC (13)Macro (7)CEO (14)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target
$22 Bull$16 Base$12 Bear
📬 FREE VEL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VEL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY VEL SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (54.8) create a -13 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
42
Grade D$14.67+1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
45
Grade D$14.81+4.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
47
Grade D$15.45+4.5% Next Q
Current
50
Grade D$16.14-1.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VEL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While VEL currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($16.07) and Max Pain ($16.95) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $22.47.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VEL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “VEL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±6.4%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (VEL)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for VEL.

Sponsored / Partner SpotlightACTIVE TRADER & PROP EVALUATION DESK

Practice in Our Weekly $100,000 Paper Arena Before Risking Personal Capital

Keep your personal nest egg in cash while trading NQ, ES, Crude, and Gold momentum using institutional prop-desk buying power.

FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

🏆 Enter Free $100K Paper Arena →
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VEL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of VEL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
VEL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -15.63%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $15.95H $16.14L $15.72C $16.14VOL 116.1K
RES: $18.36SUP: $12.86SMA50: $16.07SMA200: $17.77
$20.51$18.80$17.08$15.36$13.65RES $18.36SUP $12.86$16.142026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VEL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 VEL Butterfly Map → + Track VEL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-10.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +33.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VEL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VEL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VEL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VEL)

Financials Rank #653 of 1097 ⚔️ BTGO vs VEL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (VEL vs. BTGO, QFIN, TRON, GAIN)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL) ranks #653 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #656 by equity capitalization ($620.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VEL leads on earnings valuation at 6.0x trailing P/E, while GAIN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 31.0% ROIC and — gross margin. QFIN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 54/100 (D+) compared with VEL at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
VEL ACTIVE
Velocity Financial Inc.
D 50/100 6.0x — 15.6% +2.67% $620.6M Benchmark Subject
BTGO
BitGo Holdings Inc. (Class A)
D- 40/100 — — — -3.39% $624.2M /btgo-vs-vel →
QFIN
Qfin Holdings Inc.
D+ 54/100 — — 27.2% +3.48% $629.5M /qfin-vs-vel →
TRON
Tron Inc.
E 26/100 — — -0.9% +2.75% $604.8M /tron-vs-vel →
GAIN
Gladstone Investment Corporation Business Development Company
D- 37/100 — — 31.0% +0.73% $603.7M /gain-vs-vel →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001692376 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL) reported GAAP revenue of $3.10B (+33.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.32B , and +1217.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $105.0M, operating cash flow of $18.2M, and free cash flow of $17.9M (-52.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, VEL closed FY2025 with $7.38B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $3.10B $105.0M $18.2M $17.9M $7.38B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.32B $68.4M $37.8M $37.5M $5.53B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $235.3M $52.3M $48.8M $48.8M — —

3. VEL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VEL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Velocity Financial Inc. (NYSE: VEL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $16.14 (+2.67% 1D, market cap $620.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, VEL ranks #653 in composite RQD confidence.

How does VEL compare to BTGO and QFIN in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), VEL carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 15.6%. By comparison, BTGO (BitGo Holdings Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $624.2M) and QFIN (Qfin Holdings Inc.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 27.2%, cap $629.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VEL leads on earnings multiple (6.0x) while GAIN leads on capital efficiency (31.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VEL?

Per VEL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001692376), Velocity Financial Inc. generated $3.10B in revenue (+33.5% YoY), $105.0M in net income, and $17.9M in free cash flow against $7.38B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is VEL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VEL last traded at $16.14 (+2.67% on volume of 113,812 shares), positioning the stock +0.44% above its 50-day simple moving average ($16.07) and -9.17% below its 200-day simple moving average ($17.77). Across its 52-week range of $14.18 to $21.40, VEL sits at the 27.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.4% ($15.11 to $17.17).

Direct Sub-Reports: VEL RQD Cockpit VEL 12M Forecast VEL Earnings & Move VEL Dividends & DRIP VEL Insiders & 13F VEL Whale Options VEL Profit Sankey VEL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 50/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

VEL — Velocity Financial Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 50/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $16.14 (+2.67% 1D, market capitalization $620.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 15.6%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 2.84%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Financials sector and the Finance: Consumer Services industry. Revenue is reported as — in each financial period in the source data, so the source does not show how the company generates income. — for further business detail.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL) reported $3.10B in annual revenue (up from $2.32B in FY2024, +33.5% YoY) and $105.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($235.3M revenue, $52.3M net income) through FY2025, VEL scaled operating cash flow to $18.2M and free cash flow to $17.9M, backed by $7.38B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 50/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 2.84% and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $14.18 – $21.40 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 6.0x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— for upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks. The only sector-level context available is the Financials classification and Finance: Consumer Services industry. Beta of 1.0 per the market data indicates market-level sensitivity, but no correlation data is supplied.

  • Key Question #1: Can VEL sustain or expand its — operating margin and 15.6% ROIC against Finance: Consumer Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.10B and free cash flow of $17.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is VEL's 5.6x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

VEL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to VEL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

VEL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $16.14?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON VEL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on VEL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $20.75 (+32.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Low multiples (P/E TTM 6, Forward P/E 5.6) and net income rising from $52.3M to $105.0M across FY 2023–FY 2025.

Long VEL at $15.72 targeting $20.75. Low multiples (P/E TTM 6, Forward P/E 5.6) and net income rising from $52.3M to $105.0M across FY 2023–FY 2025.. Institutional whale score is 8/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $14.18 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — VEL's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $13.36 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $15.72

Free cash flow fell from $48.8M to $17.9M over the same period, with a 2.84% FCF yield and an RQD grade of D.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on VEL: Free cash flow fell from $48.8M to $17.9M over the same period, with a 2.84% FCF yield and an RQD grade of D.. At 6.0x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Finance: Consumer Services triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

LIVE TAPE