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Why VIR Stock dropped -2.65% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$11.00 -2.65% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.93

Vir Biotechnology Inc. (VIR) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $1.93B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is VIR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Vir Biotechnology Inc. (NASDAQ: VIR) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $11.00 (-2.65% 1D, market cap $1.93B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, VIR ranks #455 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does VIR compare to COAG and MESO in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), VIR carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 96.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, COAG (Hemab Therapeutics Holdings Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.94B) and MESO (Mesoblast Limited) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.97B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VCEL leads on earnings multiple (133.0x) while VCEL leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VIR?
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Per VIR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001706431), Vir Biotechnology Inc. generated $68.6M in revenue (-7.6% YoY), -$438.0M in net income, and -$396.6M in free cash flow against $1.00B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.93 (-0.67%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510040
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (6)Whales (13)SEC (10)Macro (8)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.1% Base Target
$13 Bull$10 Base$8 Bear
📬 FREE VIR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VIR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY VIR SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (33% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.1% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.40 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
32
Grade E$10.61+1.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
35
Grade E$10.74+7.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
37
Grade E$11.57-4.9% Next Q
Current
40
Grade D-$11.00-7.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (32) → D- (40)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VIR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While VIR currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.01) and Max Pain ($11.55) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $12.80.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VIR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “VIR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 40%NO 60%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why VIR Stock dropped -2.65% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Vir Biotechnology Inc. (VIR) dropped -2.65% to $11.00, trading at 84% of its 52-week range ($4.82 – $12.19). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 84% of its 52-week range ($4.82 – $12.19) with RSI-14 at 52.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.1% around $11.00 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 100% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live VIR Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VIR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of VIR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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VIR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.06%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $11.75H $11.75L $11.00C $11.00VOL 1.27M
RES: $12.21SUP: $9.30SMA50: $11.01SMA200: $9.57
$12.57$11.00$9.44$7.88$6.31RES $12.21SUP $9.30$11.002026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VIR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 VIR Butterfly Map → + Track VIR →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -7.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VIR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VIR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VIR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VIR)

Health Care Rank #455 of 1015 ⚔️ COAG vs VIR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (VIR vs. COAG, MESO, ALVO, VCEL)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Vir Biotechnology Inc. (VIR) ranks #455 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #262 by equity capitalization ($1.93B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VCEL leads on earnings valuation at 133.0x trailing P/E, while VCEL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.4% ROIC and 74.4% gross margin. COAG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with VIR at 40/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
VIR ACTIVE
Vir Biotechnology Inc.
D- 40/100 — 96.0% -35.0% -2.65% $1.93B Benchmark Subject
COAG
Hemab Therapeutics Holdings Inc.
C- 59/100 — — — -0.65% $1.94B /coag-vs-vir →
MESO
Mesoblast Limited
D 51/100 — — — -4.09% $1.97B /meso-vs-vir →
ALVO
Alvotech
D+ 52/100 — — — -3.66% $1.82B /alvo-vs-vir →
VCEL
Vericel Corporation
D+ 58/100 133.0x 74.4% 3.4% +0.62% $2.06B /vcel-vs-vir →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001706431 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Vir Biotechnology Inc. (VIR) reported GAAP revenue of $68.6M (-7.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $74.2M , and -20.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$438.0M, operating cash flow of -$391.8M, and free cash flow of -$396.6M (+12.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, VIR closed FY2025 with $1.00B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.40, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $68.6M -$438.0M -$391.8M -$396.6M $1.00B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $74.2M -$522.0M -$446.4M -$453.7M $1.40B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $86.2M -$615.1M -$778.8M -$778.8M — —

3. VIR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VIR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Vir Biotechnology Inc. (NASDAQ: VIR) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $11.00 (-2.65% 1D, market cap $1.93B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, VIR ranks #455 in composite RQD confidence.

How does VIR compare to COAG and MESO in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), VIR carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 96.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, COAG (Hemab Therapeutics Holdings Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.94B) and MESO (Mesoblast Limited) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.97B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VCEL leads on earnings multiple (133.0x) while VCEL leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VIR?

Per VIR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001706431), Vir Biotechnology Inc. generated $68.6M in revenue (-7.6% YoY), -$438.0M in net income, and -$396.6M in free cash flow against $1.00B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is VIR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VIR last traded at $11.00 (-2.65% on volume of 1,377,595 shares), positioning the stock -0.09% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.01) and +14.94% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.57). Across its 52-week range of $4.82 to $12.19, VIR sits at the 83.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.1% ($9.67 to $12.33).

Direct Sub-Reports: VIR RQD Cockpit VIR 12M Forecast VIR Earnings & Move VIR Dividends & DRIP VIR Insiders & 13F VIR Whale Options VIR Profit Sankey VIR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 40/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

VIR — Vir Biotechnology Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Vir Biotechnology Inc. (VIR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 40/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $11.00 (-2.65% 1D, market capitalization $1.93B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of 96.0%, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -19.74%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.40, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Vir Biotechnology Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) industry. The profile does not describe the company's specific products or customers. The news section references a research and development collaboration with Gilead covering three novel PRO-XTEN dual masked T-cell engagers, and a reported equity stake by Gilead of up to $1.87B. Revenue for FY 2025 was $68.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Vir Biotechnology Inc. (VIR) reported $68.6M in annual revenue (up from $74.2M in FY2024, -7.6% YoY) and -$438.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($86.2M revenue, -$615.1M net income) through FY2025, VIR scaled operating cash flow to -$391.8M and free cash flow to -$396.6M, backed by $1.00B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 40/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -19.74% and institutional whale pillar of 13/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $4.82 – $12.19 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore does not establish upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations beyond the profile classification and beta of 1.0. A prospective investor should note that the Gilead relationship referenced in the news wire is the only partner-level dependency visible in the data, and its effect on the company's cash runway cannot be quantified from the sources provided.

  • Key Question #1: Can VIR sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $68.6M and free cash flow of -$396.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is VIR's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

VIR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Vir Biotechnology Inc. (VIR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to VIR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

VIR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $11.00?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON VIR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on VIR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $14.35 (+27.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Gilead's equity stake and up-to-$1.87B collaboration for three T-cell engagers is a partner-backed catalyst, and the RQD rating shows s

Gilead's equity stake and up-to-$1.87B collaboration for three T-cell engagers is a partner-backed catalyst, and the RQD rating shows strong institutional accumulation (16/20).. When you look under the hood at VIR, Fundamental Cash Engine is 6/20 with 96.0% gross margins and -35.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (13/20) has been quietly accumulating below $12.19. My 12M target is $14.35.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@MidwestValue Agree on the RQD 40/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $11.30 and keeping dry powder in case we test $10.51.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.38 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $11.30

Revenue fell from $86.2M to $68.6M over three periods while FCF stayed deeply negative at -$396.6M and ROIC sits at -35%, earning only

Careful chasing VIR at $11.30. Revenue fell from $86.2M to $68.6M over three periods while FCF stayed deeply negative at -$396.6M and ROIC sits at -35%, earning only 6/20 on the Fundamental Cash Engine.. Gross margin is 96.0%, but operating margin is -60.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $9.38 on multiple compression.

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