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VSE Corporation (VSEC) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$160.21 +8.37% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $162.32

VSE Corporation (VSEC) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $4.15B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on VSEC Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is VSEC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, VSE Corporation (NASDAQ: VSEC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $160.21 (+8.37% 1D, market cap $4.15B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, VSEC ranks #499 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does VSEC compare to STN and ACM in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
β–Ό

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Military/Government/Technical), VSEC carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 4.3%. By comparison, STN (Stantec Inc) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $8.13B) and ACM (AECOM) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 14.5x, ROIC 16.3%, cap $8.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACM leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while ACM leads on capital efficiency (16.3% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VSEC?
β–Ό

Per VSEC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000102752), VSE Corporation generated $1.11B in revenue (+41.5% YoY), $11.7M in net income, and $5.7M in free cash flow against $2.03B in total assets and $285.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $162.32 (+1.32%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) β€’ 0.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 50.1% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D+
025507510052
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- Β· Rk C
Cash (12)Whales (4)SEC (18)Macro (8)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target
$260 Bull$156 Base$122 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE VSEC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VSEC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±12.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY VSEC SCORES 52/100 (D+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (35% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.78 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 8/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.5% FCF Margin ($5.7M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
44
Grade D$158.65-3.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
47
Grade D$153.67-4.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
49
Grade D$146.11+9.7% Next Q
Current
52
Grade D+$160.21-1.1% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: D (44) β†’ D+ (52)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VSEC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While VSEC currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($174.66) and Max Pain ($168.22) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $260.24.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VSECβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œVSEC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 52%NO 48%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±12.3%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (VSEC)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for VSEC.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VSEC)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of VSEC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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VSEC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.70%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $155.0H $160.2L $147.8C $160.2VOL 364.0K
RES: $263.8SUP: $133.2SMA50: $174.7SMA200: $194.9
$255.5$223.9$192.3$160.6$129.0RES $263.8SUP $133.2$160.22026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VSEC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ VSEC Butterfly Map β†’ + Track VSEC β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
38.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +41.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VSEC today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VSEC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VSEC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VSEC)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #499 of 1009 βš”οΈ STN vs VSEC Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (VSEC vs. STN, ACM, TTEK, WLDN)

Industry: Military/Government/Technical (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, VSE Corporation (VSEC) ranks #499 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #303 by equity capitalization ($4.15B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ACM leads on earnings valuation at 14.5x trailing P/E, while ACM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.3% ROIC and 7.5% gross margin. TTEK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 79/100 (B+) compared with VSEC at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
VSEC ACTIVE
VSE Corporation
D+ 52/100 β€” β€” 4.3% +8.37% $4.15B Benchmark Subject
STN
Stantec Inc
D+ 57/100 32.8x β€” 9.9% +5.49% $8.13B /stn-vs-vsec β†’
ACM
AECOM
D+ 58/100 14.5x 7.5% 16.3% +3.69% $8.15B /acm-vs-vsec β†’
TTEK
Tetra Tech Inc.
B+ 79/100 30.6x 17.7% 13.4% +2.38% $9.90B /ttek-vs-vsec β†’
WLDN
Willdan Group Inc.
C 64/100 22.4x 37.5% 12.2% -2.13% $1.12B /wldn-vs-vsec β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0000102752 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), VSE Corporation (VSEC) reported GAAP revenue of $1.11B (+41.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $786.3M , and +104.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $11.7M, operating cash flow of $27.0M, and free cash flow of $5.7M (+111.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, VSEC closed FY2025 with $2.03B in total assets against $285.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.78, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.11B $11.7M $27.0M $5.7M $2.03B $285.3M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $786.3M $15.3M -$31.0M -$51.7M $1.74B $400.2M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $544.0M $39.1M -$21.8M -$46.3M $2.39B $559.9M

3. VSEC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VSEC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, VSE Corporation (NASDAQ: VSEC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $160.21 (+8.37% 1D, market cap $4.15B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, VSEC ranks #499 in composite RQD confidence.

How does VSEC compare to STN and ACM in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Military/Government/Technical), VSEC carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 4.3%. By comparison, STN (Stantec Inc) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $8.13B) and ACM (AECOM) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 14.5x, ROIC 16.3%, cap $8.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACM leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while ACM leads on capital efficiency (16.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VSEC?

Per VSEC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000102752), VSE Corporation generated $1.11B in revenue (+41.5% YoY), $11.7M in net income, and $5.7M in free cash flow against $2.03B in total assets and $285.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is VSEC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VSEC last traded at $160.21 (+8.37% on volume of 484,955 shares), positioning the stock -8.27% below its 50-day simple moving average ($174.66) and -17.81% below its 200-day simple moving average ($194.93). Across its 52-week range of $138.85 to $247.85, VSEC sits at the 19.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±12.3% ($140.50 to $179.92).

Direct Sub-Reports: VSEC RQD Cockpit VSEC 12M Forecast VSEC Earnings & Move VSEC Dividends & DRIP VSEC Insiders & 13F VSEC Whale Options VSEC Profit Sankey VSEC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 52/100 (D+) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

VSEC β€” VSE Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

VSE Corporation (VSEC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 52/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $160.21 (+8.37% 1D, market capitalization $4.15B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 4.3%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of 8.1%, and free cash flow yield of 0.13%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 1.03x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 5.78, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.20x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

VSE Corporation (VSEC) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and Military/Government/Technical industry. The profile does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model. β€” for the specific offerings and customer base. The financials section shows revenue of $1.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), VSE Corporation (VSEC) reported $1.11B in annual revenue (up from $786.3M in FY2024, +41.5% YoY) and $11.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($544.0M revenue, $39.1M net income) through FY2025, VSEC scaled operating cash flow to $27.0M and free cash flow to $5.7M, backed by $2.03B in total assets against $285.3M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D+ β€’ RQD 52/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 0.13% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $138.85 – $247.85 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation and 42.4x EV/EBITDA against 8.1% operating margins and a 1.03x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Supply_chain is "NONE," butterfly_links is empty, and proprietary_signals is empty. No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks are identified in the source data. A prospective investor should note that the absence of mapped links is a gap in the data, not evidence of independence.

  • Key Question #1: Can VSEC sustain or expand its 8.1% operating margin and 4.3% ROIC against Military/Government/Technical peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.11B and free cash flow of $5.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $285.3M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is VSEC's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.03x)?

VSEC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for VSE Corporation (VSEC) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to VSEC Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

VSEC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $160.21?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON VSEC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on VSEC:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ FCF Compounder Hunter πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $177.40 (+20.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet scores 18/20 with Altman Z 5.78, Piotroski F 8/9, and Debt/Equity 0.2, while FY 2025 revenue reached $1.11B an

Long VSEC at $147.83 targeting $177.40. Forensic balance sheet scores 18/20 with Altman Z 5.78, Piotroski F 8/9, and Debt/Equity 0.2, while FY 2025 revenue reached $1.11B and debt fell from $559.9M to $285.3M.. Institutional whale score is 4/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $138.85 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

EarningsSniper πŸ‚ BULL

Both sides have a point here β€” VSEC's 18/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $115.31 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $147.83

ROIC of 4.3%, FCF yield of 0.13%, and whale/13F flow scoring only 5/20 point to weak cash returns and thin institutional support agains

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on VSEC: ROIC of 4.3%, FCF yield of 0.13%, and whale/13F flow scoring only 5/20 point to weak cash returns and thin institutional support against an EV/EBITDA of 42.4.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Military/Government/Technical triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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