Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / WMG / forecast

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Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$30.62 +0.49% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $30.59

Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $15.94B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on WMG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is WMG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Warner Music Group Corp. (NASDAQ: WMG) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $30.62 (+0.49% 1D, market cap $15.94B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, WMG ranks #454 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does WMG compare to DKNG and LLYVK in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), WMG carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 43.7x, gross margin of 45.8%, and ROIC of 14.3%. By comparison, DKNG (DraftKings Inc.) holds a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.1%, cap $10.29B) and LLYVK (Liberty Live Holdings Inc. Series C Liberty Live Group) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.4%, cap $9.51B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WMG leads on earnings multiple (43.7x) while WMG leads on capital efficiency (14.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for WMG?

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Per WMG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001319161), Warner Music Group Corp. generated $6.71B in revenue (+4.4% YoY), $365.0M in net income, and $539.0M in free cash flow against $10.01B in total assets and $4.13B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $30.59 (-0.10%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for WMG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (55/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY WMG SCORES 55/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (27% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.2% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 8% FCF Margin ($539.0M FCF) & 45.8% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 14 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$28.91+8.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$31.33-3.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$30.31+1% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$30.62-0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (47) → D+ (55)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the WMG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, WMG faces multiple-compression risk if 43.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 44x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($28.82) or 200D SMA ($28.57) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($30.21) toward Bear Floor ($23.56).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $WMG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “WMG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 55%NO 45%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your WMG Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $30.62: 326.6 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $23.56

$7,694

$-2,306 (-23.1%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $30.21

$9,866

$-134 (-1.3%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $37.19

$12,146

+$2,146 (+21.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$31	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$35	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$27	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring WMG)

✓Walkthrough of WMG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

WMG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.93%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $29.58H $30.62L $29.58C $30.62VOL 3.24M

RES: $32.60SUP: $28.03SMA50: $28.82SMA200: $28.57

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

WMG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 WMG Butterfly Map → + Track WMG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

32.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on WMG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for WMG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for WMG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (WMG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #454 of 1011 ⚔️ DKNG vs WMG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (WMG vs. DKNG, LLYVK, LLYVA, TKO)

Industry: Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) ranks #454 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #121 by equity capitalization ($15.94B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WMG leads on earnings valuation at 43.7x trailing P/E, while WMG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.3% ROIC and 45.8% gross margin. WMG currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 55/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
WMG ACTIVE Warner Music Group Corp.	D+	55/100	43.7x	45.8%	14.3%	+0.49%	$15.94B	Benchmark Subject
DKNG DraftKings Inc.	D-	41/100	—	41.3%	-1.1%	+0.92%	$10.29B	/dkng-vs-wmg →
LLYVK Liberty Live Holdings Inc. Series C Liberty Live Group	D-	40/100	—	19.2%	-5.4%	+0.94%	$9.51B	/llyvk-vs-wmg →
LLYVA Liberty Live Holdings Inc. Series A Liberty Live Group	D-	38/100	—	19.2%	-5.6%	+1.55%	$9.12B	/llyva-vs-wmg →
TKO TKO Group Holdings Inc.	D+	54/100	61.9x	—	9.9%	+1.07%	$33.84B	/tko-vs-wmg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001319161

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) reported GAAP revenue of $6.71B (+4.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $6.43B , and +11.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $365.0M, operating cash flow of $678.0M, and free cash flow of $539.0M (-15.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, WMG closed FY2025 with $10.01B in total assets against $4.13B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.61, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$6.71B	$365.0M	$678.0M	$539.0M	$10.01B	$4.13B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$6.43B	$435.0M	$754.0M	$638.0M	$9.15B	$3.96B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$6.04B	$430.0M	$687.0M	$415.3M	$8.77B	$2.05B

3. WMG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is WMG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does WMG compare to DKNG and LLYVK in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for WMG?

Where is WMG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

WMG last traded at $30.62 (+0.49% on volume of 2,129,979 shares), positioning the stock +6.25% above its 50-day simple moving average ($28.82) and +7.18% above its 200-day simple moving average ($28.57). Across its 52-week range of $23.34 to $35.42, WMG sits at the 60.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.2% ($28.72 to $32.52).

WMG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is WMG's 12-month stock price target?

Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $30.21 (-1.3% from $30.62), with a bull-case target of $37.19 and a bear-case floor of $23.56.

Is WMG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates WMG D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 55/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: WMG RQD Cockpit WMG 12M Forecast WMG Earnings & Move WMG Dividends & DRIP WMG Insiders & 13F WMG Whale Options WMG Profit Sankey WMG News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 55/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

WMG — Warner Music Group Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:14:27Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, WMG scores 55 out of 100, graded D+ and labeled "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars, each scored out of 20, are: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20 (ROIC 14.3%; FCF yield 3.38%); Whale 13F Flow 15/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction 12/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit 9/20 (beta 0.95; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet 6/20 (Altman Z 1.61; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 5.36). The weakest pillar is the forensic balance sheet, which the rating places well below the others. For a prospective investor, the implication is that the stock's upside case rests mainly on institutional positioning and a reasonable cash-return profile, while the valuation (P/E TTM 43.7, EV/EBITDA 23.4) and leverage-related readings carry meaningful downside risk. The rating treats the valuation tradeoff as unattractive relative to balance-sheet strength. Insider and macro pillars are moderate, not decisive.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
30.47	$15.94B	43.7	40.6	23.4	0.7	2.4%	0.95	$23.34 - $35.42	14.3%

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$6707.0M	$694.0M	$365.0M	N/A	$539.0M	$751.0M	$4131.9M
FY 2024	$6426.0M	$823.0M	$435.0M	N/A	$638.0M	$802.0M	$3955.0M
FY 2023	$6037.0M	$790.0M	$430.0M	N/A	$415.3M	N/A	$2051.4M

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $6037.0M (FY 2023) to $6707.0M (FY 2025), while net income declined from $430.0M to $365.0M over the same span. Debt increased from $2051.4M to $4131.9M. Per the market data section, ROIC is 14.3% and the net margin is 5.4%. Per the Roarable RQD rating forensic pillar, the Altman Z-Score is 1.61, the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, and Debt/Equity is 5.36. The balance sheet posture is therefore leveraged, with debt rising faster than cash over the reported periods.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the news wire, the items are: a Yahoo Finance report on a 6.2% move higher (RISK WATCH); a GuruFocus report on a 3.0% share surge citing a GF Score of 79 (CATALYST); a Stock Titan notice that fiscal-year results will be reported Nov. 19 (RISK WATCH); a 24/7 Wall St. item on Spotify and peer moves in which Warner Music held steady (RISK WATCH); a MarketBeat item on a consensus price target of $38.27 (RISK WATCH); and a Simply Wall St. item on a 17% discount (RISK WATCH). Most items are tagged as risk watch. The sole catalyst tag is the GF Score item. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

What are the underlying revenue drivers and business model, since the profile provides only sector classification?
Why did net income decline from FY 2023 to FY 2025 while revenue grew, and what drove the rise in debt?
What are the EPS figures for each reported period, given that all are listed as N/A?
What holder-level 13F, Form 4, and Congressional trades underlie the whale and insider pillar scores?
What does the fiscal-year results release on Nov. 19 contain, and how would it affect the forensic metrics?

WMG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to WMG Debate Forum (3) ↓

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 13h ago

Warner Music Group (WMG) Moves 6.2% Higher: Will This Strength Last?

Yahoo Finance report covering Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST GuruFocus • 16h ago

Warner Music Group Corp (WMG) Shares Surge 3.0% -- What GF Score of 79 Tells Investors

GuruFocus report covering Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Stock Titan • 19h ago

Warner Music Group will report fiscal-year results Nov. 19

Stock Titan report covering Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH 24/7 Wall St. • 22h ago

Spotify Climbs 6% on Report of Paid AI Remix Service; Sirius XM Edges Higher, Warner Music and Netflix Hold Steady

24/7 Wall St. report covering Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH MarketBeat • 1d ago

Warner Music Group Corp. (NASDAQ:WMG) Stock Has Consensus Price Target of $38.27 According to Brokerages

MarketBeat report covering Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Warner Music Group (WMG) Draws Fresh Interest, Is A 17% Discount Still On Offer?

Simply Wall St report covering Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) Stock Forecasts

Yahoo Finance report covering Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH MarketBeat • 1d ago

Warner Music Group Corp. $WMG Stake Reduced by Cooke & Bieler LP

MarketBeat report covering Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

WMG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $30.62?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON WMG 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $32.91 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is WMG (D+ • RQD 55/100) a Buy at $30.47?

Welcome to the WMG (Warner Music Group Corp.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 55/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation. Bulls point to capital efficiency (14.3% ROIC), while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (43.7x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $24.99 (-18.0%)

Spot @ $30.47

Pump the brakes on WMG — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on WMG, but look at what you are paying: 43.7x trailing P/E with 45.8% gross margins. Unless Warner Music Group Corp. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $35.35 (+16.0%)

Spot @ $30.47

WMG cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on WMG, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $30.47 (52-wk range $23.34 - $35.42), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.