Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. (WMS) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$135.43 -0.80% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $135.56

Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. (WMS) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (38% profit margin, 22% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B- β€’ BUY Cap $10.21B
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is WMS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. (NYSE: WMS) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $135.43 (-0.80% 1D, market cap $10.21B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, WMS ranks #129 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does WMS compare to AVY and REYN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
β–Ό

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Containers/Packaging), WMS carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.0x, gross margin of 38.3%, and ROIC of 22.3%. By comparison, AVY (Avery Dennison Corporation) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 20.1x, ROIC 17.4%, cap $13.81B) and REYN (Reynolds Consumer Products Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 16.5x, ROIC 13.4%, cap $4.98B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SON leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while WMS leads on capital efficiency (22.3% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for WMS?
β–Ό

Per WMS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0001604028), Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. generated $3.05B in revenue (+5.0% YoY), $429.0M in net income, and $569.3M in free cash flow against $4.14B in total assets and $1.28B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (38% profit margin)β€”profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $135.57 (+0.10%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) β€’ 18.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 68.4% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY β€’ B-
025507510071
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B Β· Rk C
Cash (19)Whales (10)SEC (18)Macro (8)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.8% Base Target
$188 Bull$143 Base$111 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE WMS RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for WMS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±5.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY WMS SCORES 71/100 (B-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 18.7% FCF Margin ($569.3M FCF) & 38.3% Gross Margin

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.15 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 8/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (60.5) create a -12 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
63
Grade C+$125.19+3.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
66
Grade B-$130.00+0.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
68
Grade B-$130.11+4.1% Next Q
Current
71
Grade B-$135.43+6.8% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C+ (63) β†’ B- (71)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the WMS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, WMS faces multiple-compression risk if 24.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 35.8% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($130.44) or 200D SMA ($143.21) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($143.35) toward Bear Floor ($111.05).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $WMSβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œWMS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL β€’ FY 2025 (10-K)

How WMS Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$569.3M (18.7% FCF Margin)
Revenue$3.05BGross Profit $1.17B (38.3%)Cost of Sales $1.88BOp Profit $619.2M (20.3%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $548.2MNet Profit$429.0M (14.1%)Tax/Other $190.2M

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

β–  Revenueβ–  Net Profitβ–  Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $2.87B
FY24
Rev $2.90B
FY25
Rev $3.05B
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$3.05B38.3%20.3%$429.0M$569.3M22.3%
FY 2024$2.90B37.7%22.6%$453.0M$368.5M23.4%
FY 2023$2.87B38.3%25.5%$513.0M$588.6M16.9%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring WMS)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of WMS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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WMS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.78%β–Ό DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $136.5H $136.5L $135.4C $135.4VOL 563.5K
RES: $154.0SUP: $121.7SMA50: $130.4SMA200: $143.2
$160.5$150.3$140.1$129.9$119.7RES $154.0SUP $121.7$135.42026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

WMS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
17.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on WMS today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for WMS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for WMS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (WMS)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #129 of 1011 βš”οΈ AVY vs WMS Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (WMS vs. AVY, REYN, SON, SW)

Industry: Containers/Packaging (17 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. (WMS) ranks #129 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #171 by equity capitalization ($10.21B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SON leads on earnings valuation at 4.9x trailing P/E, while WMS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 22.3% ROIC and 38.3% gross margin. AVY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with WMS at 71/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
WMS ACTIVE
Advanced Drainage Systems Inc.
B- 71/100 24.0x 38.3% 22.3% -0.80% $10.21B Benchmark Subject
AVY
Avery Dennison Corporation
B 74/100 20.1x 28.8% 17.4% +0.09% $13.81B /avy-vs-wms β†’
REYN
Reynolds Consumer Products Inc.
B- 70/100 16.5x 24.6% 13.4% +0.13% $4.98B /reyn-vs-wms β†’
SON
Sonoco Products Company
D+ 52/100 4.9x 20.9% 11.4% +0.14% $4.94B /son-vs-wms β†’
SW
Smurfit WestRock plc
D+ 56/100 31.9x 19.4% 4.7% +1.32% $22.60B /sw-vs-wms β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2026-03-31 β€’ CIK 0001604028

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31), Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. (WMS) reported GAAP revenue of $3.05B (+5.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.90B , and +6.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $429.0M, operating cash flow of $819.1M, and free cash flow of $569.3M (+54.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, WMS closed FY2025 with $4.14B in total assets against $1.28B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.15, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-03-31 $3.05B $429.0M $819.1M $569.3M $4.14B $1.28B
FY2024 (FY) 2025-03-31 $2.90B $453.0M $581.5M $368.5M $3.60B $1.25B
FY2023 (FY) 2024-03-31 $2.87B $513.0M $717.9M $588.6M $5.66B $1.32B

3. WMS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is WMS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. (NYSE: WMS) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $135.43 (-0.80% 1D, market cap $10.21B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, WMS ranks #129 in composite RQD confidence.

How does WMS compare to AVY and REYN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Containers/Packaging), WMS carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.0x, gross margin of 38.3%, and ROIC of 22.3%. By comparison, AVY (Avery Dennison Corporation) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 20.1x, ROIC 17.4%, cap $13.81B) and REYN (Reynolds Consumer Products Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 16.5x, ROIC 13.4%, cap $4.98B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SON leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while WMS leads on capital efficiency (22.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for WMS?

Per WMS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0001604028), Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. generated $3.05B in revenue (+5.0% YoY), $429.0M in net income, and $569.3M in free cash flow against $4.14B in total assets and $1.28B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (38% profit margin)β€”profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is WMS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

WMS last traded at $135.43 (-0.80% on volume of 563,525 shares), positioning the stock +3.83% above its 50-day simple moving average ($130.44) and -5.43% below its 200-day simple moving average ($143.21). Across its 52-week range of $122.84 to $179.32, WMS sits at the 22.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±5.8% ($127.58 to $143.28).

WMS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

How profitable is Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. (WMS)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), WMS converted $3.1B of revenue into a 38.3% gross margin, 20.3% operating margin, and $569.3M in free cash flow (18.7% FCF margin).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 71/100 (B-) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

WMS β€” Advanced Drainage Systems Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:16:27Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, WMS scores 72 out of 100, graded B, with the verdict label "Roarable Buy β€” Good Risk/Reward." The five pillars break down as follows. Fundamental cash engine scores 19 of 20, supported by ROIC of 22.3% and an FCF yield of 5.53%; this is the strongest pillar and points to a business that converts capital into cash efficiently. Whale 13F flow scores 11 of 20, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning; this is a middling reading. Insider conviction scores 16 of 20, based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Macro regime fit scores 8 of 20, tied to a beta of 1.13 and sector sensitivity; this is the weakest pillar and signals that the stock is likely to amplify broader market moves. Forensic balance sheet scores 18 of 20, supported by an Altman Z-Score of 5.15, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.66.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the rating suggests a company with strong cash generation and a healthy balance sheet, offset by macro sensitivity and only moderate institutional conviction. The valuation tradeoff is visible in the market data: trailing P/E of 24 and forward P/E of 22.3 are not low, so the upside case depends on continued cash generation rather than multiple expansion. The rating itself is an analytical score derived from the source data and is not a recommendation.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
$136.52$10.29B2422.312.75.690.55%1.13$122.84 - $179.3222.3%

Business

Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Containers/Packaging industry, per the company profile. Per the SEC financials, the company reported FY 2025 revenue of $3050.4M. Not available in source data for detailed product lines, customer segments, or the specific revenue mechanics.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$3050.4M$619.2M$429.0MN/A$569.3M$1008.2M$1275.7M
FY 2024$2904.2M$657.4M$453.0MN/A$368.5M$488.9M$1253.1M
FY 2023$2874.5M$732.1M$513.0MN/A$588.6MN/A$1324.9M

Per the market data, gross margin is 38.3%, operating margin 20.3%, and net margin 14.1%, with ROIC of 22.3%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 5.15 and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, with Debt/Equity of 0.66. Reported net income declined from $513.0M in FY 2023 to $453.0M in FY 2024 and $429.0M in FY 2025, while revenue increased across the same periods. Cash rose to $1008.2M in FY 2025 from $488.9M in FY 2024, while debt stayed near $1.25B–$1.32B across all three periods.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news data, the headlines include an Oppenheimer note titled that the company is well positioned to meet its outlook and accelerate growth (tagged GREEN / CATALYST). Other items are tagged YELLOW / MARKET WIRE and include a report that the stock hit a 52-week low at 123.97 USD, analyst earnings-estimate coverage pointing to an expected earnings decline, a Simply Wall St piece questioning whether the stock is fully priced after a $530 Million deal, and a MarketBeat report of a "Buy" rating from DA Davidson. The 52-week-low headline is a risk watch item; the Oppenheimer and DA Davidson items are positive analyst signals; the earnings-decline estimate is a risk item. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is marked NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Analyst View & Smart Money Ownership

Analyst data is not available in source data. Holder data is not available in source data. Per the news data, DA Davidson is reported to have assigned a "Buy" rating, but no consensus rating or price targets are provided.

Open Questions

  • What is the detailed product and customer mix driving revenue, and how does it relate to the reported margins?
  • What is driving the decline in net income from FY 2023 to FY 2025 while revenue rose?
  • What do the 13F, Form 4, and Congressional trade records specifically show, and who are the holders behind the 11/20 and 16/20 pillar scores?
  • What is the $530 Million deal referenced in the news, and how is it expected to affect the balance sheet and outlook?
  • What are the EPS figures for each reported period, since they are listed as N/A in the financials?

WMS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. (WMS) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to WMS Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

WMS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $135.43?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON WMS 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on WMS:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $161.09 (+18.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is WMS (B β€’ RQD 72/100) a Buy at $136.52?

Welcome to the WMS (Advanced Drainage Systems Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 72/100 (Roarable Buy β€” Good Risk/Reward) in Containers/Packaging. Bulls point to capital efficiency (22.3% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $105.12 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $136.52

Pump the brakes on WMS β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on WMS, but look at what you are paying: 24.0x trailing P/E with 38.3% gross margins. Unless Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $158.36 (+16.0%)
Spot @ $136.52

WMS cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on WMS, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Containers/Packaging and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $136.52 (52-wk range $122.84 - $179.32), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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