Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-02, Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: XPOF) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $4.46 (+19.25% 1D, market cap $184.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, XPOF ranks #737 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), XPOF carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.8%. By comparison, AIBZ (Bitzero Holdings Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $202.8M) and SEG (Seaport Entertainment Group Inc.) posts a E grade (20/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.6%, cap $295.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, XPOF leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while XPOF leads on capital efficiency (6.8% ROIC).
Per XPOF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001802156), Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) generated $314.9M in revenue (-1.7% YoY), -$38.7M in net income, and $24.7M in free cash flow against $345.6M in total assets and $500.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 7.9% FCF Margin ($24.7M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 55% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)
While XPOF currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.46) and Max Pain ($4.68) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.71.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) surged +19.25% to $4.46, trading at 16% of its 52-week range ($3.57 – $9.25). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (7% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stocktwits report covering Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Benzinga report covering Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-30/investor-said-to-look-to-bid-on-club-pilates-owner-xponential
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of +20.43% and +2.25%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. -1.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on XPOF today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for XPOF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) ranks #737 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #706 by equity capitalization ($184.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, XPOF leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while XPOF leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 6.8% ROIC and — gross margin. TP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 50/100 (D) compared with XPOF at 40/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XPOF
ACTIVE
Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) | D- | 40/100 | — | — | 6.8% | +19.25% | $184.5M | Benchmark Subject |
| AIBZ Bitzero Holdings Inc. | D | 47/100 | — | — | — | -11.66% | $202.8M | /aibz-vs-xpof → |
| SEG Seaport Entertainment Group Inc. | E | 20/100 | — | — | -24.6% | -2.13% | $295.3M | /seg-vs-xpof → |
| TP Ticketplus Ltd. | D | 50/100 | — | — | — | +4.21% | $103.1M | /tp-vs-xpof → |
| CDRO Codere Online Luxembourg S.A. | D | 48/100 | — | — | — | +1.53% | $387.4M | /cdro-vs-xpof → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) reported GAAP revenue of $314.9M (-1.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $320.3M , and -1.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$38.7M, operating cash flow of $28.3M, and free cash flow of $24.7M (+255.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, XPOF closed FY2025 with $345.6M in total assets against $500.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $314.9M | -$38.7M | $28.3M | $24.7M | $345.6M | $500.5M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $320.3M | -$67.7M | $11.7M | $7.0M | $403.4M | $341.7M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $317.9M | -$4.0M | $32.7M | $32.7M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-02, Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: XPOF) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $4.46 (+19.25% 1D, market cap $184.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, XPOF ranks #737 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), XPOF carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.8%. By comparison, AIBZ (Bitzero Holdings Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $202.8M) and SEG (Seaport Entertainment Group Inc.) posts a E grade (20/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.6%, cap $295.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, XPOF leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while XPOF leads on capital efficiency (6.8% ROIC).
Per XPOF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001802156), Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) generated $314.9M in revenue (-1.7% YoY), -$38.7M in net income, and $24.7M in free cash flow against $345.6M in total assets and $500.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
XPOF last traded at $4.46 (+19.25% on volume of 1,880,691 shares), positioning the stock 0.00% above its 50-day simple moving average ($4.46) and -25.79% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.01). Across its 52-week range of $3.57 to $9.25, XPOF sits at the 15.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($3.90 to $5.02).
Why XPOF Stock surged +19.25% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (7% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Per the Roarable RQD rating, XPOF scores 40 out of 100, a letter grade of D-, with the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The five pillars are:
For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the upside case rests on the cash-flow yield and a possible strategic catalyst (see news section). The valuation tradeoff is that the enterprise-value-to-EBITDA multiple of 29.9 is elevated relative to the operating margin of 6.3% and the net margin of -12.3%, meaning the market is paying for earnings recovery that the reported financials do not yet show. The forensic pillars indicate balance-sheet fragility, so downside sensitivity to any operating shortfall is high. This is an analytical framing, not personalized advice.
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS | FCF | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $314.9M | $19.8M | $-38.7M | N/A | $24.7M | N/A | $500.5M |
| FY 2024 | $320.3M | $-53.6M | $-67.7M | N/A | $7.0M | N/A | $341.7M |
| FY 2023 | $317.9M | $34.9M | $-4.0M | N/A | $32.7M | N/A | N/A |
Per the SEC financials, revenue has been broadly flat across the three reported years, ranging from $314.9M to $320.3M. Operating income swung from $34.9M in FY 2023 to $-53.6M in FY 2024 before recovering to $19.8M in FY 2025, and net income was negative in all three periods. Per the market data, the operating margin is 6.3%, the net margin is -12.3%, and ROIC is 6.8%. Per the RQD forensic pillar, the Altman Z-Score is 0.2 and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, both weak, and Debt/Equity is 0.5; reported debt rose from $341.7M in FY 2024 to $500.5M in FY 2025.
Per the recent news and catalysts section, six items were reported:
Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.
Risk watch items: the reported share-price move of -6.73% on the current data, the proximity of the price to the bottom of its 52-week range ($3.57 - $9.25), and the unresolved status of the takeover and acquisition reports.
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stocktwits report covering Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Benzinga report covering Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Welcome to the XPOF (Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A)) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 40/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on XPOF, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on XPOF, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $3.74 (52-wk range $3.57 - $9.25), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.
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