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Zenas BioPharma Inc. (ZBIO) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$27.62 -2.71% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $27.43

Zenas BioPharma Inc. (ZBIO) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $1.85B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ZBIO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Zenas BioPharma Inc. (NASDAQ: ZBIO) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $27.62 (-2.71% 1D, market cap $1.85B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ZBIO ranks #499 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ZBIO compare to GENB and AGIO in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ZBIO carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, GENB (Generate Biomedicines Inc.) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.86B) and AGIO (Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -33.8%, cap $1.82B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ZBIO leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AGIO leads on capital efficiency (-33.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ZBIO?
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Per ZBIO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001953926), Zenas BioPharma Inc. generated $10.0M in revenue (+100.0% YoY), -$377.7M in net income, and -$172.4M in free cash flow against $383.6M in total assets and $78.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $27.43 (-0.68%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510038
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (9)SEC (7)Macro (11)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9% Base Target
$47 Bull$25 Base$20 Bear
📬 FREE ZBIO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ZBIO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (38/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ZBIO SCORES 38/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (29% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 45% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 52 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
30
Grade E$25.16+12% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
33
Grade E$28.18-3.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
35
Grade E$27.30+1.2% Next Q
Current
38
Grade D-$27.62-7.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (30) → D- (38)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ZBIO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ZBIO currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($29.34) and Max Pain ($29.00) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $46.83.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ZBIO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ZBIO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 38%NO 62%Trade / Inspect Odds →
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How ZBIO Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)
Revenue$10.0MGross Profit $5.2M (52%)Cost of Sales $4.8MOp Profit $0 (0%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $5.2MNet Profit$0 (0%)Tax/Other $0

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $50.0M
FY24
Rev $5.0M
FY25
Rev $10.0M
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$10.0M52%-80%-$377.7M-$172.4M-45%
FY 2024$5.0M52%-80%-$157.0M-$119.8M-45%
FY 2023$50.0M52%-74.3%-$37.1M-$30.5M-35%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ZBIO)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ZBIO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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ZBIO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +28.11%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $28.76H $28.76L $27.62C $27.62VOL 358.1K
RES: $33.70SUP: $23.20SMA50: $29.34SMA200: $25.04
$35.28$30.17$25.05$19.94$14.82RES $33.70SUP $23.20$27.622026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ZBIO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ZBIO Butterfly Map → + Track ZBIO →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +100.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ZBIO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ZBIO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ZBIO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ZBIO)

Health Care Rank #499 of 1015 ⚔️ GENB vs ZBIO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ZBIO vs. GENB, AGIO, ADRX, TRAX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Zenas BioPharma Inc. (ZBIO) ranks #499 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #270 by equity capitalization ($1.85B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ZBIO leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while AGIO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -33.8% ROIC and 88.3% gross margin. GENB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with ZBIO at 38/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ZBIO ACTIVE
Zenas BioPharma Inc.
D- 38/100 — — -35.0% -2.71% $1.85B Benchmark Subject
GENB
Generate Biomedicines Inc.
D+ 52/100 — — — -8.64% $1.86B /genb-vs-zbio →
AGIO
Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D- 35/100 — 88.3% -33.8% -1.96% $1.82B /agio-vs-zbio →
ADRX
ADARx Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D 48/100 — — — -7.29% $1.82B /adrx-vs-zbio →
TRAX
First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc.
D 44/100 — — -35.0% -0.07% $1.89B /trax-vs-zbio →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001953926 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Zenas BioPharma Inc. (ZBIO) reported GAAP revenue of $10.0M (+100.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.0M , and -80.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$377.7M, operating cash flow of -$172.3M, and free cash flow of -$172.4M (-43.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ZBIO closed FY2025 with $383.6M in total assets against $78.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.79, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $10.0M -$377.7M -$172.3M -$172.4M $383.6M $78.6M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $5.0M -$157.0M -$119.7M -$119.8M $370.0M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $50.0M -$37.1M -$30.5M -$30.5M — —

3. ZBIO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ZBIO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Zenas BioPharma Inc. (NASDAQ: ZBIO) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $27.62 (-2.71% 1D, market cap $1.85B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ZBIO ranks #499 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ZBIO compare to GENB and AGIO in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ZBIO carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, GENB (Generate Biomedicines Inc.) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.86B) and AGIO (Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -33.8%, cap $1.82B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ZBIO leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AGIO leads on capital efficiency (-33.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ZBIO?

Per ZBIO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001953926), Zenas BioPharma Inc. generated $10.0M in revenue (+100.0% YoY), -$377.7M in net income, and -$172.4M in free cash flow against $383.6M in total assets and $78.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ZBIO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ZBIO last traded at $27.62 (-2.71% on volume of 408,299 shares), positioning the stock -5.86% below its 50-day simple moving average ($29.34) and +10.30% above its 200-day simple moving average ($25.04). Across its 52-week range of $13.50 to $44.60, ZBIO sits at the 45.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($24.17 to $31.07).

Direct Sub-Reports: ZBIO RQD Cockpit ZBIO 12M Forecast ZBIO Earnings & Move ZBIO Dividends & DRIP ZBIO Insiders & 13F ZBIO Whale Options ZBIO Profit Sankey ZBIO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 38/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ZBIO — Zenas BioPharma Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Zenas BioPharma Inc. (ZBIO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 38/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $27.62 (-2.71% 1D, market capitalization $1.85B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -9.19%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (7/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.79, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.32x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Zenas BioPharma Inc. (ZBIO) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. The company has a market capitalization of $1.9B. Reported FY 2025 revenue of $10.0M is the only revenue-side detail available.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Zenas BioPharma Inc. (ZBIO) reported $10.0M in annual revenue (up from $5.0M in FY2024, +100.0% YoY) and -$377.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($50.0M revenue, -$37.1M net income) through FY2025, ZBIO scaled operating cash flow to -$172.3M and free cash flow to -$172.4M, backed by $383.6M in total assets against $78.6M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 38/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -9.19% and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $13.50 – $44.60 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be mapped from the provided sources.

  • Key Question #1: Can ZBIO sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $10.0M and free cash flow of -$172.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $78.6M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ZBIO's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ZBIO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Zenas BioPharma Inc. (ZBIO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ZBIO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ZBIO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $27.62?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ZBIO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ZBIO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $32.65 (+15.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Positive long-term trial data and a 77.61% analyst upside headline have drawn investor attention to the stock.

Positive long-term trial data and a 77.61% analyst upside headline have drawn investor attention to the stock.. When you look under the hood at ZBIO, Fundamental Cash Engine is 8/20 with 0.0% gross margins and -35.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (9/20) has been quietly accumulating below $44.60. My 12M target is $32.65.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — ZBIO's 7/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $21.86 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $28.39

Deeply negative ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -9.19%, with cash falling from $319.7M to $110.6M, leave the company burning capital with

Careful chasing ZBIO at $28.39. Deeply negative ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -9.19%, with cash falling from $319.7M to $110.6M, leave the company burning capital without current earnings support.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is -60.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $21.86 on multiple compression.

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