ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

LCID // Lucid Group Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001811210 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Auto Manufacturing
$3.00 ▼ -0.02 (-0.66%)
MKT CAP: $1.19B • VOL: 12.71M
LCID // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 16/100 [E] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE E
RQD CONFIDENCE
16 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
4 / 20
CRITICAL
52W RANGE 4% • VS 200D -55.3% • RSI 35.5
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
4 / 20
CRITICAL
FCF YIELD -18% • P/E 23x • F-SCORE 3/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
3 / 20
CRITICAL
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=-0.11 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.18
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

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LCID // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -55.16%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $3.20H $3.20L $3.00C $3.00VOL 14.36M
RES: $3.51SUP: $2.93SMA50: $3.93SMA200: $6.76
$15.89$12.23$8.56$4.90$1.23RES $3.51SUP $2.93$3.002026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
LCID // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 48/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Lucid Group Inc. (LCID) exhibits -30.0% gross margins and -35.0% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Auto Manufacturing), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained -30.0% gross profitability converts into -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -35.0% // GM: -30.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +67.6% paired with -18.00% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +67.6% // FCF YLD: -18.00%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.45 and Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.45 // F-SCORE: 3/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (23.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $3.00 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Auto Manufacturing require continuous execution to defend -60.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -60.0% // D/E: 2.85x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 23.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.12).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 23.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -18.00%
GROSS MARGIN -30.0%
OPERATING MARGIN -60.0%
NET MARGIN -60.0%
ROIC % -35.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +67.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-6.85
DEBT / EQUITY 2.85x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 35.5
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.12
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // LCIDPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $2.75
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>