ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

USAR // USA Rare Earth Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001970622 ↗
Materials • Metal Mining
$8.86 ▼ -0.76 (-7.95%)
MKT CAP: $3.61B • VOL: 10.18M
USAR // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 39/100 [D-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D-
RQD CONFIDENCE
39 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
8 / 20
WARNING
FCF -120% vs NI -120% • ROIC-WACC -23.8% • Z 11.88
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
5 / 20
CRITICAL
52W RANGE 3% • VS 200D -48.8% • RSI 36.4
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
7 / 20
WARNING
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=-0.05 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.10
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
ALERT

Why did USAR's Insider & Capital Conviction & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever USAR is Upgraded or Downgraded.

USAR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -65.36%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $10.52H $10.52L $8.86C $8.86VOL 15.90M
RES: $10.70SUP: $8.43SMA50: $13.78SMA200: $18.78
$34.48$27.53$20.59$13.65$6.71RES $10.70SUP $8.43$8.862026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
USAR // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 31/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

USA Rare Earth Inc. (USAR) exhibits 11.9% gross margins and -14.9% return on invested capital within Materials (Metal Mining), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 11.9% gross profitability converts into -60.0% operating margin and -14.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -14.9% // GM: 11.9%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +6.6% paired with -1.24% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +6.6% // FCF YLD: -1.24%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 11.88 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 11.88 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (29.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $8.86 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Metal Mining require continuous execution to defend -60.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -60.0% // D/E: 0.16x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 29.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.91).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 29.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -1.24%
GROSS MARGIN 11.9%
OPERATING MARGIN -60.0%
NET MARGIN -60.0%
ROIC % -14.9%
REV GROWTH YOY +6.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-0.79
DEBT / EQUITY 0.16x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 36.4
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.91
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // USARPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $8.11
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for USAR & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>