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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ALGT
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Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$76.58 +7.35% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $77.45

Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $1.95B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ALGT Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ALGT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Allegiant Travel Company (NASDAQ: ALGT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $76.58 (+7.35% 1D, market cap $1.95B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ALGT ranks #788 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ALGT compare to AERO and ULCC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
▼

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), ALGT carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 1.1%. By comparison, AERO (Grupo Aeromexico S.A.B. de C.V. (each representing ten (10) )) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.18B) and ULCC (Frontier Group Holdings Inc.) posts a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.49B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SKYW leads on earnings multiple (8.8x) while SKYW leads on capital efficiency (10.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALGT?
▼

Per ALGT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001362468), Allegiant Travel Company generated $2.32B in revenue (+4.8% YoY), -$44.7M in net income, and $75.1M in free cash flow against $4.21B in total assets and $1.68B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $77.45 (+1.13%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 3.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510035
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk E
Cash (10)Whales (6)SEC (8)Macro (3)CEO (8)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.4% Base Target
$130 Bull$69 Base$54 Bear
📬 FREE ALGT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALGT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ALGT SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.2% FCF Margin ($75.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.26 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (46.7) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
27
Grade E$72.34-4.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
30
Grade E$69.03+6.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
32
Grade E$73.59+4.1% Next Q
Current
35
Grade D-$76.58-8.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (27) → D- (35)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ALGT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ALGT currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($75.16) and Max Pain ($80.41) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $129.81.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALGT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ALGT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 35%NO 65%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
46.730 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)
1.26>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)
5 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE29% OF RANGE
L: $57$76.58H: $124
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 10 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 14 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: ERQD 11 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning on ALGT

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (50)

1.1% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 3.77% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (40)

Altman-Z 1.26 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (28)

14/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 3/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ALGT
  • ✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ALGT)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ALGT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ALGT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.41%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $72.86H $76.58L $71.34C $76.58VOL 358.4K
RES: $129.1SUP: $63.01SMA50: $75.16SMA200: $87.36
$127.7$110.8$93.79$76.82$59.85RES $129.1SUP $63.01$76.582026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALGT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ALGT Butterfly Map → + Track ALGT →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
6.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALGT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALGT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALGT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALGT)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #788 of 1009 ⚔️ AERO vs ALGT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ALGT vs. AERO, ULCC, SKYW, JBLU)

Industry: Air Freight/Delivery Services (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) ranks #788 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #419 by equity capitalization ($1.95B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SKYW leads on earnings valuation at 8.8x trailing P/E, while SKYW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.9% ROIC and — gross margin. SKYW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 56/100 (D+) compared with ALGT at 35/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ALGT ACTIVE
Allegiant Travel Company
D- 35/100 — — 1.1% +7.35% $1.95B Benchmark Subject
AERO
Grupo Aeromexico S.A.B. de C.V. (each representing ten (10) )
D 45/100 — — — +1.60% $2.18B /aero-vs-algt →
ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings Inc.
E 32/100 — — -35.0% +15.19% $1.49B /ulcc-vs-algt →
SKYW
SkyWest Inc.
D+ 56/100 8.8x — 10.9% -0.79% $3.20B /skyw-vs-algt →
JBLU
JetBlue Airways Corporation
E 22/100 — — -35.0% +11.23% $1.08B /jblu-vs-algt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001362468 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) reported GAAP revenue of $2.32B (+4.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.22B , and -0.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$44.7M, operating cash flow of $389.8M, and free cash flow of $75.1M (+96.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALGT closed FY2025 with $4.21B in total assets against $1.68B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.26, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.32B -$44.7M $389.8M $75.1M $4.21B $1.68B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.22B -$240.2M $338.5M $38.3M $4.43B $1.61B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.32B $117.6M $423.1M $423.1M — —

3. ALGT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALGT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Allegiant Travel Company (NASDAQ: ALGT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $76.58 (+7.35% 1D, market cap $1.95B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ALGT ranks #788 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ALGT compare to AERO and ULCC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), ALGT carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 1.1%. By comparison, AERO (Grupo Aeromexico S.A.B. de C.V. (each representing ten (10) )) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.18B) and ULCC (Frontier Group Holdings Inc.) posts a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.49B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SKYW leads on earnings multiple (8.8x) while SKYW leads on capital efficiency (10.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALGT?

Per ALGT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001362468), Allegiant Travel Company generated $2.32B in revenue (+4.8% YoY), -$44.7M in net income, and $75.1M in free cash flow against $4.21B in total assets and $1.68B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ALGT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALGT last traded at $76.58 (+7.35% on volume of 642,702 shares), positioning the stock +1.89% above its 50-day simple moving average ($75.16) and -12.34% below its 200-day simple moving average ($87.36). Across its 52-week range of $57.11 to $123.63, ALGT sits at the 29.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.9% ($68.23 to $84.93).

Direct Sub-Reports: ALGT RQD Cockpit ALGT 12M Forecast ALGT Earnings & Move ALGT Dividends & DRIP ALGT Insiders & 13F ALGT Whale Options ALGT Profit Sankey ALGT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 35/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ALGT — Allegiant Travel Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 35/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $76.58 (+7.35% 1D, market capitalization $1.95B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 1.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 1.6%, and free cash flow yield of 3.77%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (8/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.26, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.60x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Allegiant Travel Company is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Air Freight/Delivery Services industry,. The company carries a market capitalization of $2.0B. FY 2025 revenue was $2.32B, indicating a sizable revenue base.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) reported $2.32B in annual revenue (up from $2.22B in FY2024, +4.8% YoY) and -$44.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.32B revenue, $117.6M net income) through FY2025, ALGT scaled operating cash flow to $389.8M and free cash flow to $75.1M, backed by $4.21B in total assets against $1.68B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 35/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 3.77% and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $57.11 – $123.63 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation and 11.5x EV/EBITDA against 1.6% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists no upstream or downstream links and no proprietary signals. The only sector context in the source is the Consumer Discretionary sector and Air Freight/Delivery Services industry classification, along with the Macro Regime Fit pillar's note of sector sensitivity at beta 1.0.

  • Key Question #1: Can ALGT sustain or expand its 1.6% operating margin and 1.1% ROIC against Air Freight/Delivery Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.32B and free cash flow of $75.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.68B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ALGT's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ALGT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ALGT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ALGT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $76.58?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ALGT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ALGT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $85.61 (+20.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Price sits far below the $123.63 52-week high with a 3.77% FCF yield and FY 2025 operating income swinging back to $37.2M.

Long ALGT at $71.34 targeting $85.61. Price sits far below the $123.63 52-week high with a 3.77% FCF yield and FY 2025 operating income swinging back to $37.2M.. Institutional whale score is 6/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $57.11 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@FadeTheHype Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Air Freight/Delivery Services. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $57.79 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $71.34

Altman Z of 1.26, Debt/Equity of 1.6, and debt rising to $1.68B against $172.7M cash leave the balance sheet financially stressed.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on ALGT: Altman Z of 1.26, Debt/Equity of 1.6, and debt rising to $1.68B against $172.7M cash leave the balance sheet financially stressed.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Air Freight/Delivery Services triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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