Should I buy, hold, or sell ALK stock right now?

Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 42/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 40x P/E (3% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is ALK's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ALK's 12-month base price target is $35.53 (range $27.71 to $63.66), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ALK

SKYW (56) CPA (54) AERO (45) ALGT (35) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$38.29 +7.23% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.72

Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.99B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ALK Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ALK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Alaska Air Group Inc. (NYSE: ALK) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $38.29 (+7.23% 1D, market cap $3.99B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ALK ranks #695 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ALK compare to SKYW and CPA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), ALK carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 40.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 2.9%. By comparison, SKYW (SkyWest Inc.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 8.8x, ROIC 10.9%, cap $3.20B) and CPA (Copa Holdings S.A.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $5.30B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SKYW leads on earnings multiple (8.8x) while SKYW leads on capital efficiency (10.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALK?

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Per ALK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000766421), Alaska Air Group Inc. generated $14.24B in revenue (+21.3% YoY), $100.0M in net income, and $608.2M in free cash flow against $20.36B in total assets and $4.77B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.72 (+1.11%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 4.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (42/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ALK SCORES 42/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.3% FCF Margin ($608.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (43.3) create a -15 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$35.73-6.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$33.54+6.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$35.58+7.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$38.29-7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (34) → D- (42)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ALK Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ALK currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($38.77) and Max Pain ($40.20) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $63.66.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ALK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 42%NO 58%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

43.330 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

1.15>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

6 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE21% OF RANGE

L: $32$38.29H: $61

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 10 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 17 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 15 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on ALK

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (50)

2.9% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 15.08% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 1.15 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (37)

17/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 5/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ALK

✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Priced at 40x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ALK)

✓Walkthrough of ALK's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ALK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.60%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $36.15H $38.29L $35.71C $38.29VOL 2.98M

RES: $52.02SUP: $30.79SMA50: $38.77SMA200: $43.82

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ALK Butterfly Map → + Track ALK →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

30.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +21.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALK)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #695 of 1009 ⚔️ SKYW vs ALK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ALK vs. SKYW, CPA, AERO, ALGT)

Industry: Air Freight/Delivery Services (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) ranks #695 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #310 by equity capitalization ($3.99B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SKYW leads on earnings valuation at 8.8x trailing P/E, while SKYW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.9% ROIC and — gross margin. SKYW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 56/100 (D+) compared with ALK at 42/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ALK ACTIVE Alaska Air Group Inc.	D-	42/100	40.3x	—	2.9%	+7.23%	$3.99B	Benchmark Subject
SKYW SkyWest Inc.	D+	56/100	8.8x	—	10.9%	-0.79%	$3.20B	/skyw-vs-alk →
CPA Copa Holdings S.A.	D+	54/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	+6.53%	$5.30B	/cpa-vs-alk →
AERO Grupo Aeromexico S.A.B. de C.V. (each representing ten (10) )	D	45/100	—	—	—	+1.60%	$2.18B	/aero-vs-alk →
ALGT Allegiant Travel Company	D-	35/100	—	—	1.1%	+7.35%	$1.95B	/algt-vs-alk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000766421 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) reported GAAP revenue of $14.24B (+21.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $11.73B , and +36.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $100.0M, operating cash flow of $1.25B, and free cash flow of $608.2M (-35.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALK closed FY2025 with $20.36B in total assets against $4.77B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.15, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$14.24B	$100.0M	$1.25B	$608.2M	$20.36B	$4.77B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$11.73B	$395.0M	$1.46B	$935.9M	$19.77B	$4.49B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$10.43B	$235.0M	$1.05B	$580.8M	$12.51B	$2.93B

3. ALK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ALK compare to SKYW and CPA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALK?

Where is ALK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALK last traded at $38.29 (+7.23% on volume of 4,512,230 shares), positioning the stock -1.24% below its 50-day simple moving average ($38.77) and -12.62% below its 200-day simple moving average ($43.82). Across its 52-week range of $32.33 to $60.63, ALK sits at the 21.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.9% ($34.88 to $41.70).

Direct Sub-Reports: ALK RQD Cockpit ALK 12M Forecast ALK Earnings & Move ALK Dividends & DRIP ALK Insiders & 13F ALK Whale Options ALK Profit Sankey ALK News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 42/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ALK — Alaska Air Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 42/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $38.29 (+7.23% 1D, market capitalization $3.99B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 2.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 2.1%, and free cash flow yield of 15.08%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 0.92x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.15, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.16x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) is a NYSE-listed company classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Air Freight/Delivery Services industry. The profile describes the company as a Consumer Discretionary issuer with a market capitalization of $4.0B. — for specific product lines, customer segments, or revenue model details.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) reported $14.24B in annual revenue (up from $11.73B in FY2024, +21.3% YoY) and $100.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($10.43B revenue, $235.0M net income) through FY2025, ALK scaled operating cash flow to $1.25B and free cash flow to $608.2M, backed by $20.36B in total assets against $4.77B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 42/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 15.08% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $32.33 – $60.63 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 40.3x trailing P/E and 9.6x EV/EBITDA against 2.1% operating margins and a 0.92x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists no upstream or downstream dependencies, no sector correlations, and no proprietary signals for ALK. The only stated sector-level linkage is the Consumer Discretionary / Air Freight/Delivery Services classification, and the Q3 headline's reference to fuel fears is the one indirect cost-sensitivity signal in the source data.

Key Question #1: Can ALK sustain or expand its 2.1% operating margin and 2.9% ROIC against Air Freight/Delivery Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $14.24B and free cash flow of $608.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $4.77B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is ALK's 33.9x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.92x)?

ALK Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ALK Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 21h ago

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE GuruFocus • 1d ago

Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK) Stock Down 3.3% -- Now Undervalued? G

GuruFocus report covering Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Alaska Air Group (ALK) Stock Dropped, So What Is Driving Attention Now?