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Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$38.29 +7.23% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.72

Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $3.99B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ALK Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ALK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Alaska Air Group Inc. (NYSE: ALK) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $38.29 (+7.23% 1D, market cap $3.99B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ALK ranks #695 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ALK compare to SKYW and CPA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
β–Ό

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), ALK carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 40.3x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 2.9%. By comparison, SKYW (SkyWest Inc.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 8.8x, ROIC 10.9%, cap $3.20B) and CPA (Copa Holdings S.A.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $5.30B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SKYW leads on earnings multiple (8.8x) while SKYW leads on capital efficiency (10.9% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALK?
β–Ό

Per ALK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000766421), Alaska Air Group Inc. generated $14.24B in revenue (+21.3% YoY), $100.0M in net income, and $608.2M in free cash flow against $20.36B in total assets and $4.77B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.72 (+1.11%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) β€’ 4.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 Β· D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D-
025507510042
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D Β· Rk D-
Cash (10)Whales (5)SEC (10)Macro (5)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.2% Base Target
$64 Bull$36 Base$28 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE ALK RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±8.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (42/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY ALK SCORES 42/100 (D-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.3% FCF Margin ($608.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (43.3) create a -15 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
34
Grade E$35.73-6.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
37
Grade E$33.54+6.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
39
Grade E$35.58+7.6% Next Q
Current
42
Grade D-$38.29-7% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (34) β†’ D- (42)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ALK Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While ALK currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($38.77) and Max Pain ($40.20) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $63.66.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALKβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œALK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 42%NO 58%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±8.9%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ALK)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ALK.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ALK)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of ALK's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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ALK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.60%β–Ό DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $36.15H $38.29L $35.71C $38.29VOL 2.98M
RES: $52.02SUP: $30.79SMA50: $38.77SMA200: $43.82
$55.86$49.48$43.11$36.73$30.35RES $52.02SUP $30.79$38.292026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ ALK Butterfly Map β†’ + Track ALK β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
30.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +21.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALK today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALK)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #695 of 1009 βš”οΈ SKYW vs ALK Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ALK vs. SKYW, CPA, AERO, ALGT)

Industry: Air Freight/Delivery Services (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) ranks #695 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #310 by equity capitalization ($3.99B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SKYW leads on earnings valuation at 8.8x trailing P/E, while SKYW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.9% ROIC and β€” gross margin. SKYW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 56/100 (D+) compared with ALK at 42/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ALK ACTIVE
Alaska Air Group Inc.
D- 42/100 40.3x β€” 2.9% +7.23% $3.99B Benchmark Subject
SKYW
SkyWest Inc.
D+ 56/100 8.8x β€” 10.9% -0.79% $3.20B /skyw-vs-alk β†’
CPA
Copa Holdings S.A.
D+ 54/100 32.8x β€” 9.9% +6.53% $5.30B /cpa-vs-alk β†’
AERO
Grupo Aeromexico S.A.B. de C.V. (each representing ten (10) )
D 45/100 β€” β€” β€” +1.60% $2.18B /aero-vs-alk β†’
ALGT
Allegiant Travel Company
D- 35/100 β€” β€” 1.1% +7.35% $1.95B /algt-vs-alk β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0000766421 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) reported GAAP revenue of $14.24B (+21.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $11.73B , and +36.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $100.0M, operating cash flow of $1.25B, and free cash flow of $608.2M (-35.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALK closed FY2025 with $20.36B in total assets against $4.77B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.15, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $14.24B $100.0M $1.25B $608.2M $20.36B $4.77B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $11.73B $395.0M $1.46B $935.9M $19.77B $4.49B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $10.43B $235.0M $1.05B $580.8M $12.51B $2.93B

3. ALK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Alaska Air Group Inc. (NYSE: ALK) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $38.29 (+7.23% 1D, market cap $3.99B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ALK ranks #695 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ALK compare to SKYW and CPA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), ALK carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 40.3x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 2.9%. By comparison, SKYW (SkyWest Inc.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 8.8x, ROIC 10.9%, cap $3.20B) and CPA (Copa Holdings S.A.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $5.30B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SKYW leads on earnings multiple (8.8x) while SKYW leads on capital efficiency (10.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALK?

Per ALK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000766421), Alaska Air Group Inc. generated $14.24B in revenue (+21.3% YoY), $100.0M in net income, and $608.2M in free cash flow against $20.36B in total assets and $4.77B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ALK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALK last traded at $38.29 (+7.23% on volume of 4,512,230 shares), positioning the stock -1.24% below its 50-day simple moving average ($38.77) and -12.62% below its 200-day simple moving average ($43.82). Across its 52-week range of $32.33 to $60.63, ALK sits at the 21.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±8.9% ($34.88 to $41.70).

Direct Sub-Reports: ALK RQD Cockpit ALK 12M Forecast ALK Earnings & Move ALK Dividends & DRIP ALK Insiders & 13F ALK Whale Options ALK Profit Sankey ALK News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 42/100 (D-) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ALK β€” Alaska Air Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 42/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $38.29 (+7.23% 1D, market capitalization $3.99B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 2.9%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of 2.1%, and free cash flow yield of 15.08%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 0.92x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.15, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.16x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) is a NYSE-listed company classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Air Freight/Delivery Services industry. The profile describes the company as a Consumer Discretionary issuer with a market capitalization of $4.0B. β€” for specific product lines, customer segments, or revenue model details.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) reported $14.24B in annual revenue (up from $11.73B in FY2024, +21.3% YoY) and $100.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($10.43B revenue, $235.0M net income) through FY2025, ALK scaled operating cash flow to $1.25B and free cash flow to $608.2M, backed by $20.36B in total assets against $4.77B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D- β€’ RQD 42/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 15.08% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $32.33 – $60.63 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 40.3x trailing P/E and 9.6x EV/EBITDA against 2.1% operating margins and a 0.92x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

β€” The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists no upstream or downstream dependencies, no sector correlations, and no proprietary signals for ALK. The only stated sector-level linkage is the Consumer Discretionary / Air Freight/Delivery Services classification, and the Q3 headline's reference to fuel fears is the one indirect cost-sensitivity signal in the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can ALK sustain or expand its 2.1% operating margin and 2.9% ROIC against Air Freight/Delivery Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $14.24B and free cash flow of $608.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $4.77B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ALK's 33.9x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.92x)?

ALK Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to ALK Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ALK Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $38.29?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ALK 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ALK:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Institutional Buy-Side πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $46.07 (+29.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Cash generation is strong relative to market value, with a 15.08% FCF yield and a 0.92 beta.

The street is overcomplicating Alaska Air Group Inc. (ALK). Cash generation is strong relative to market value, with a 15.08% FCF yield and a 0.92 beta.. With an RQD score of 42/100 (D-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $38.57.

ArenaChamp_24 πŸ‚ BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on 40.3x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Air Freight/Delivery Services. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $30.35 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $35.71

Leverage and distress signals dominate, with an Altman Z-Score of 1.15, Debt/Equity of 1.16, and a 2.9% ROIC.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short ALK above $35.71. Leverage and distress signals dominate, with an Altman Z-Score of 1.15, Debt/Equity of 1.16, and a 2.9% ROIC.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20) and FCF yield (15.08%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $60.63.

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