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Stock Ratings / Energy / AR
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Antero Resources Corporation (AR) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$40.64 -3.42% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.49

Antero Resources Corporation (AR) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 75/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 10% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $12.92B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AR Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Antero Resources Corporation (NYSE: AR) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $40.64 (-3.42% 1D, market cap $12.92B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 17/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, AR ranks #12 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AR compare to RRC and SSL in the Energy sector?
▼

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), AR carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.5%. By comparison, RRC (Range Resources Corporation) holds a A- grade (85/100 RQD, P/E 19.1x, ROIC 11.5%, cap $12.77B) and SSL (Sasol Ltd.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $11.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SM leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while SM leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AR?
▼

Per AR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001433270), Antero Resources Corporation generated $5.28B in revenue (+22.0% YoY), $675.0M in net income, and $1.39B in free cash flow against $13.25B in total assets and $1.40B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.49 (-0.38%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 26.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
025507510075
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B+ · Rk B-
Cash (13)Whales (17)SEC (11)Macro (17)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.7% Base Target
$52 Bull$44 Base$33 Bear
📬 FREE AR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (75/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AR SCORES 75/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.9% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+17/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 65% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 67.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 9 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
67
Grade B-$36.63+5.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
70
Grade B$38.51+9.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
72
Grade B$42.11-3.5% Next Q
Current
75
Grade B$40.64+7.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (67) → B (75)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AR Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 75/100 (B) score, AR faces multiple-compression risk if 18.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($37.77) or 200D SMA ($36.95) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($43.75) toward Bear Floor ($33.32).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 75%NO 25%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM
67.330 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDWATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)
2.11>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
8 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE65% OF RANGE
L: $31$40.64H: $46
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: CRQD 13 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: A-RQD 34 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 28 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground) on AR

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (65)

9.5% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 11.01% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (55)

Altman-Z 2.11 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BULLISH (85)

34/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 17/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like AR
  • ✓Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (AR Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +2.81%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $41.20H $42.08L $40.64C $40.64VOL 5.48M
RES: $43.08SUP: $33.34SMA50: $37.77SMA200: $36.95
$43.46$40.51$37.56$34.61$31.66RES $43.08SUP $33.34$40.642026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AR Butterfly Map → + Track AR →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
12.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +22.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AR)

Energy Rank #12 of 211 ⚔️ RRC vs AR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (AR vs. RRC, SSL, VNOM, SM)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Antero Resources Corporation (AR) ranks #12 by composite RQD confidence (75/100, grade B) and #53 by equity capitalization ($12.92B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SM leads on earnings valuation at 14.5x trailing P/E, while SM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.5% ROIC and — gross margin. RRC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 85/100 (A-) compared with AR at 75/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AR ACTIVE
Antero Resources Corporation
B 75/100 18.7x — 9.5% -3.42% $12.92B Benchmark Subject
RRC
Range Resources Corporation
A- 85/100 19.1x 93.8% 11.5% -0.29% $12.77B /rrc-vs-ar →
SSL
Sasol Ltd.
B 72/100 32.8x — 9.9% -8.19% $11.15B /ssl-vs-ar →
VNOM
Viper Energy Inc.
C 64/100 — — -1.7% -4.11% $17.13B /vnom-vs-ar →
SM
SM Energy Company
A- 82/100 14.5x — 12.5% -7.28% $9.60B /sm-vs-ar →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001433270 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Antero Resources Corporation (AR) reported GAAP revenue of $5.28B (+22.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.33B , and +12.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $675.0M, operating cash flow of $1.63B, and free cash flow of $1.39B (+112.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, AR closed FY2025 with $13.25B in total assets against $1.40B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.11, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $5.28B $675.0M $1.63B $1.39B $13.25B $1.40B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $4.33B $94.0M $849.3M $654.6M $13.01B $1.49B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $4.68B $297.0M $994.7M $784.0M $6.96B $1.63B

3. AR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Antero Resources Corporation (NYSE: AR) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $40.64 (-3.42% 1D, market cap $12.92B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 17/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, AR ranks #12 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AR compare to RRC and SSL in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), AR carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.5%. By comparison, RRC (Range Resources Corporation) holds a A- grade (85/100 RQD, P/E 19.1x, ROIC 11.5%, cap $12.77B) and SSL (Sasol Ltd.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $11.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SM leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while SM leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AR?

Per AR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001433270), Antero Resources Corporation generated $5.28B in revenue (+22.0% YoY), $675.0M in net income, and $1.39B in free cash flow against $13.25B in total assets and $1.40B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AR last traded at $40.64 (-3.42% on volume of 4,290,565 shares), positioning the stock +7.60% above its 50-day simple moving average ($37.77) and +9.99% above its 200-day simple moving average ($36.95). Across its 52-week range of $31.08 to $45.75, AR sits at the 65.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 67.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.9% ($37.84 to $43.44).

Direct Sub-Reports: AR RQD Cockpit AR 12M Forecast AR Earnings & Move AR Dividends & DRIP AR Insiders & 13F AR Whale Options AR Profit Sankey AR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 75/100 (B) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AR — Antero Resources Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Antero Resources Corporation (AR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 75/100, corresponding to a B letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $40.64 (-3.42% 1D, market capitalization $12.92B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.5%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 16.7%, and free cash flow yield of 11.01%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (17/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (17/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.09x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.11, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.19x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Antero Resources Corporation (AR) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Oil & Gas Production industry (Energy sector) with an equity market capitalization of $12.92B. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 16.7%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.5% (free cash flow yield of 11.01%). Within the Oil & Gas Production peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Antero Resources Corporation (AR) reported $5.28B in annual revenue (up from $4.33B in FY2024, +22.0% YoY) and $675.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($4.68B revenue, $297.0M net income) through FY2025, AR scaled operating cash flow to $1.63B and free cash flow to $1.39B, backed by $13.25B in total assets against $1.40B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B • RQD 75/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 17/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $31.08 – $45.75 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Investors must weigh 18.7x trailing P/E and 11.5x EV/EBITDA against 16.7% operating margins and a 1.09x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The one sector-level observation the source supports is that the Energy sector's market sensitivity is reflected in AR's Beta of 1.09, meaning the stock has historically been modestly more volatile than the broad market per the RQD model input.

  • Key Question #1: Can AR sustain or expand its 16.7% operating margin and 9.5% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $5.28B and free cash flow of $1.39B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.40B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AR's 15.7x forward P/E multiple to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.09x)?

AR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Antero Resources Corporation (AR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $40.64?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $51.76 (+23.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Strong cash-flow yield (FCF yield 11.01%), a high macro-regime fit score, and debt reduced from $1.63B to $1.40B over three years.

The street is overcomplicating Antero Resources Corporation (AR). Strong cash-flow yield (FCF yield 11.01%), a high macro-regime fit score, and debt reduced from $1.63B to $1.40B over three years.. With an RQD score of 75/100 (B) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 11/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $45.45.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@MidwestValue Agree on the RQD 75/100 quality, though with 1.09 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $42.08 and keeping dry powder in case we test $39.13.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $34.93 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $42.08

Balance-sheet pillar scores only 11/20 and cash, analyst, and ownership data are missing, leaving the rating's flow signals unverifiabl

Balance-sheet pillar scores only 11/20 and cash, analyst, and ownership data are missing, leaving the rating's flow signals unverifiable.. Look at the math on AR: paying 18.7x trailing P/E for 9.5% ROIC and 16.7% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Oil & Gas Production demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $37.03 before getting long.

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