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Stock Ratings / Health Care / BCYC
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Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$3.66 -4.19% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.63

Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 20/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $256.5M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BCYC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Bicycle Therapeutics plc (NASDAQ: BCYC) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 20/100 at a spot price of $3.66 (-4.19% 1D, market cap $256.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, BCYC ranks #978 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BCYC compare to LRMR and GLSI in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), BCYC carries a Roarable E (20/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, LRMR (Larimar Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $256.6M) and GLSI (Greenwich LifeSciences Inc.) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $255.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCYC leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AMRN leads on capital efficiency (-12.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BCYC?
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Per BCYC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001761612), Bicycle Therapeutics plc generated $72.6M in revenue (+105.8% YoY), -$219.0M in net income, and -$252.0M in free cash flow against $717.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.63 (-0.94%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (20/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-11.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510020
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (3)Whales (5)SEC (5)Macro (5)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-17.2% Base Target
$9 Bull$3 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE BCYC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BCYC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (20/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BCYC SCORES 20/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+5/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.4% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+5/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
15
Grade E$3.63-0.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
16
Grade E$3.60+5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
18
Grade E$3.78-3.2% Next Q
Current
20
Grade E$3.66-11.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (15) → E (20)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BCYC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While BCYC currently carries a cautious 20/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.81) and Max Pain ($3.84) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.52.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BCYC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BCYC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 20%NO 80%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
48.130 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)
0.20>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
2 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE7% OF RANGE
L: $3$3.66H: $8
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 2 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 8 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: ERQD 10 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on BCYC

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (15)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (25)

Altman-Z 0.20 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (22)

8/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 5/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like BCYC
  • ✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BCYC)

  • ✓Walkthrough of BCYC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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BCYC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -25.91%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $3.82H $3.82L $3.66C $3.66VOL 348.6K
RES: $4.12SUP: $3.15SMA50: $3.81SMA200: $4.54
$6.86$5.90$4.95$3.99$3.03RES $4.12SUP $3.15$3.662026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BCYC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BCYC Butterfly Map → + Track BCYC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +105.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BCYC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BCYC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BCYC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BCYC)

Health Care Rank #978 of 1015 ⚔️ LRMR vs BCYC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (BCYC vs. LRMR, GLSI, AMRN, ABEO)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC) ranks #978 by composite RQD confidence (20/100, grade E) and #535 by equity capitalization ($256.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BCYC leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while AMRN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -12.2% ROIC and 56.6% gross margin. LRMR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 34/100 (E) compared with BCYC at 20/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BCYC ACTIVE
Bicycle Therapeutics plc
E 20/100 — — -35.0% -4.19% $256.5M Benchmark Subject
LRMR
Larimar Therapeutics Inc.
E 34/100 — — -35.0% -7.49% $256.6M /lrmr-vs-bcyc →
GLSI
Greenwich LifeSciences Inc.
E 31/100 — — -35.0% -8.37% $255.5M /glsi-vs-bcyc →
AMRN
Amarin Corporation plc
E 32/100 — 56.6% -12.2% -4.91% $249.9M /amrn-vs-bcyc →
ABEO
Abeona Therapeutics Inc.
E 23/100 — 73.7% -35.0% -4.61% $248.8M /abeo-vs-bcyc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001761612 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC) reported GAAP revenue of $72.6M (+105.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $35.3M , and +169.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$219.0M, operating cash flow of -$249.7M, and free cash flow of -$252.0M (-51.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, BCYC closed FY2025 with $717.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $72.6M -$219.0M -$249.7M -$252.0M $717.6M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $35.3M -$169.0M -$164.7M -$166.0M $956.9M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $27.0M -$180.7M -$60.6M -$60.6M — —

3. BCYC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BCYC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Bicycle Therapeutics plc (NASDAQ: BCYC) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 20/100 at a spot price of $3.66 (-4.19% 1D, market cap $256.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, BCYC ranks #978 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BCYC compare to LRMR and GLSI in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), BCYC carries a Roarable E (20/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, LRMR (Larimar Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $256.6M) and GLSI (Greenwich LifeSciences Inc.) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $255.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCYC leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AMRN leads on capital efficiency (-12.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BCYC?

Per BCYC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001761612), Bicycle Therapeutics plc generated $72.6M in revenue (+105.8% YoY), -$219.0M in net income, and -$252.0M in free cash flow against $717.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BCYC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BCYC last traded at $3.66 (-4.19% on volume of 348,594 shares), positioning the stock -3.94% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.81) and -19.38% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.54). Across its 52-week range of $3.33 to $8.11, BCYC sits at the 6.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.4% ($3.24 to $4.08).

Direct Sub-Reports: BCYC RQD Cockpit BCYC 12M Forecast BCYC Earnings & Move BCYC Dividends & DRIP BCYC Insiders & 13F BCYC Whale Options BCYC Profit Sankey BCYC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 20/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BCYC — Bicycle Therapeutics plc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 20/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $3.66 (-4.19% 1D, market capitalization $256.5M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (3/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (5/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Bicycle Therapeutics plc is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Health Care sector and the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC) reported $72.6M in annual revenue (up from $35.3M in FY2024, +105.8% YoY) and -$219.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($27.0M revenue, -$180.7M net income) through FY2025, BCYC scaled operating cash flow to -$249.7M and free cash flow to -$252.0M, backed by $717.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 20/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 3/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.33 – $8.11 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists no upstream or downstream links and no proprietary signals, so supply-chain dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the provided sources.

  • Key Question #1: Can BCYC sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $72.6M and free cash flow of -$252.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BCYC's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

BCYC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BCYC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BCYC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $3.66?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BCYC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BCYC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $4.21 (+15.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Reported revenue grew from $27.0M in FY 2023 to $72.6M in FY 2025 while cash of $628.1M remains substantial.

Reported revenue grew from $27.0M in FY 2023 to $72.6M in FY 2025 while cash of $628.1M remains substantial.. When you look under the hood at BCYC, Fundamental Cash Engine is 2/20 with 0.0% gross margins and -35.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (5/20) has been quietly accumulating below $8.11. My 12M target is $4.21.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@SkepticalCFA Shorting a 5/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $3.66 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.75 (-24.9%)
Spot @ $3.66

An Altman Z of 0.2, Piotroski F of 2/9, and ROIC of -35% signal forensic distress alongside a -60% operating margin.

Careful chasing BCYC at $3.66. An Altman Z of 0.2, Piotroski F of 2/9, and ROIC of -35% signal forensic distress alongside a -60% operating margin.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is -60.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $2.75 on multiple compression.

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