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Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$33.95 -0.23% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $33.87

Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.12B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on BOW Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BOW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BOW) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $33.95 (-0.23% 1D, market cap $1.12B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BOW ranks #309 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BOW compare to ASIC and HRTG in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), BOW carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.0%. By comparison, ASIC (Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 15.8x, ROIC 12.0%, cap $1.14B) and HRTG (Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc.) posts a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 5.5x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $1.06B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HRTG leads on earnings multiple (5.5x) while HRTG leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BOW?
▼

Per BOW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002002473), Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. generated $551.6M in revenue (+29.6% YoY), $53.8M in net income, and $326.0M in free cash flow against $2.37B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $33.87 (-0.23%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 59.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510063
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C · Rk C
Cash (13)Whales (12)SEC (13)Macro (13)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.2% Base Target
$41 Bull$35 Base$27 Bear
📬 FREE BOW RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BOW)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BOW SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 59.1% FCF Margin ($326.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 8 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
71
Grade B$34.00+0.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
68
Grade B-$34.03+0.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$34.29-1% Next Q
Current
63
Grade C$33.95+0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (71) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BOW Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, BOW faces multiple-compression risk if 20.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($33.86) or 200D SMA ($28.63) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($34.71) toward Bear Floor ($27.07).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BOW• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BOW Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
52.130 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)
6 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE92% OF RANGE
L: $21$33.95H: $35
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: CRQD 13 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 24 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground) on BOW

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (65)

12.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (62)

24/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like BOW
  • ✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (BOW Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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BOW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +45.83%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-03O $34.13H $34.13L $33.95C $33.95VOL 123.5K
RES: $34.67SUP: $36.40SMA50: $33.86SMA200: $28.63
$35.90$32.47$29.03$25.60$22.16RES $34.67SUP $36.40$33.952026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BOW Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BOW Butterfly Map → + Track BOW →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
14.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +29.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BOW today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BOW. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BOW today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BOW)

Financials Rank #309 of 1097 ⚔️ ASIC vs BOW Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BOW vs. ASIC, HRTG, IGIC, HIPO)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) ranks #309 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #528 by equity capitalization ($1.12B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HRTG leads on earnings valuation at 5.5x trailing P/E, while HRTG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. HRTG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 77/100 (B+) compared with BOW at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BOW ACTIVE
Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.
C 63/100 20.9x — 12.0% -0.23% $1.12B Benchmark Subject
ASIC
Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings
C+ 66/100 15.8x — 12.0% +2.02% $1.14B /asic-vs-bow →
HRTG
Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc.
B+ 77/100 5.5x — 85.0% +0.84% $1.06B /hrtg-vs-bow →
IGIC
International General Insurance Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Share
D+ 53/100 8.3x — 17.9% +1.97% $1.04B /igic-vs-bow →
HIPO
Hippo Holdings Inc.
C- 60/100 15.7x — 14.4% -2.54% $975.2M /hipo-vs-bow →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002002473 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) reported GAAP revenue of $551.6M (+29.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $425.7M , and +94.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $53.8M, operating cash flow of $331.6M, and free cash flow of $326.0M (+12.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, BOW closed FY2025 with $2.37B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $551.6M $53.8M $331.6M $326.0M $2.37B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $425.7M $38.2M $294.3M $291.2M $1.65B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $283.4M $25.0M $236.2M $236.2M — —

3. BOW Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BOW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BOW) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $33.95 (-0.23% 1D, market cap $1.12B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BOW ranks #309 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BOW compare to ASIC and HRTG in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), BOW carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.0%. By comparison, ASIC (Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 15.8x, ROIC 12.0%, cap $1.14B) and HRTG (Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc.) posts a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 5.5x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $1.06B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HRTG leads on earnings multiple (5.5x) while HRTG leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BOW?

Per BOW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002002473), Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. generated $551.6M in revenue (+29.6% YoY), $53.8M in net income, and $326.0M in free cash flow against $2.37B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BOW trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BOW last traded at $33.95 (-0.23% on volume of 218,277 shares), positioning the stock +0.27% above its 50-day simple moving average ($33.86) and +18.58% above its 200-day simple moving average ($28.63). Across its 52-week range of $21.21 to $35.07, BOW sits at the 91.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($33.34 to $34.56).

Direct Sub-Reports: BOW RQD Cockpit BOW 12M Forecast BOW Earnings & Move BOW Dividends & DRIP BOW Insiders & 13F BOW Whale Options BOW Profit Sankey BOW News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BOW — Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 63/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $33.95 (-0.23% 1D, market capitalization $1.12B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 12.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Property-Casualty Insurers industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $1.12B. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 12% (free cash flow yield of 0%). Within the Property-Casualty Insurers peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) reported $551.6M in annual revenue (up from $425.7M in FY2024, +29.6% YoY) and $53.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($283.4M revenue, $25.0M net income) through FY2025, BOW scaled operating cash flow to $331.6M and free cash flow to $326.0M, backed by $2.37B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 63/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 12/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $21.21 – $35.07 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 20.9x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Property-Casualty Insurers (Financials), BOW carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can BOW sustain or expand its — operating margin and 12.0% ROIC against Property-Casualty Insurers peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $551.6M and free cash flow of $326.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BOW's 17.6x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

BOW Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc. (BOW) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BOW Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BOW Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $33.95?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BOW 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BOW:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $44.58 (+31.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue grew from $283.4M to $551.6M across FY 2023–FY 2025 while net income rose from $25.0M to $53.8M, and the forward P/E of 17.6 si

Don't sleep on BOW's setup in Financials. Revenue grew from $283.4M to $551.6M across FY 2023–FY 2025 while net income rose from $25.0M to $53.8M, and the forward P/E of 17.6 sits below the TTM P/E of 20.9.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (63/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — BOW's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $28.93 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $34.03

The RQD rating's insider conviction pillar scored 12 of 20, and the 0% FCF yield and 0% dividend yield provide no current cash return t

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short BOW above $34.03. The RQD rating's insider conviction pillar scored 12 of 20, and the 0% FCF yield and 0% dividend yield provide no current cash return to shareholders.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20) and FCF yield (0.0%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $35.07.

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