Should I buy, hold, or sell BUR stock right now?

Burford Capital Limited (BUR) currently earns a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell — SELL) with 33/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 12x P/E (10% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is BUR's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

BUR's 12-month base price target is $3.33 (range $2.6 to $10.61), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Financials / BUR

CGBD (38) CD (38) WRLD (55) LU (44) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Burford Capital Limited (BUR) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$3.75 +10.29% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.81

Burford Capital Limited (BUR) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 33/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $744.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on BUR Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BUR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Burford Capital Limited (NYSE: BUR) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $3.75 (+10.29% 1D, market cap $744.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BUR ranks #995 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BUR compare to CGBD and CD in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), BUR carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.7%. By comparison, CGBD (Carlyle Secured Lending Inc.) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E 10.6x, ROIC 6.0%, cap $741.7M) and CD (Chaince Digital Holdings Inc.) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -7.2%, cap $739.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CGBD leads on earnings multiple (10.6x) while WRLD leads on capital efficiency (9.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BUR?

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Per BUR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001714174), Burford Capital Limited generated $413.4M in revenue (-24.3% YoY), $62.6M in net income, and -$29.3M in free cash flow against $6.64B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.81 (+1.66%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (33/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BUR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (33/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BUR SCORES 33/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+7/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 35% Net Buy • Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (46.8) create a -15 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$3.44-10.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$3.08+7.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$3.32+13% Next Q

Current

Grade E$3.75-8.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (25) → E (33)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BUR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While BUR currently carries a cautious 33/100 (E) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.78) and Max Pain ($3.94) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.61.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BUR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BUR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 33%NO 67%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

46.830 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

2 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE12% OF RANGE

L: $3$3.75H: $10

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 6 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 12 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 15 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on BUR

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (30)

9.7% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -3.84% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (28)

12/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 5/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like BUR

✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BUR)

✓Walkthrough of BUR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

BUR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -28.71%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $3.49H $3.75L $3.40C $3.75VOL 2.62M

RES: $4.37SUP: $2.63SMA50: $3.78SMA200: $5.31

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BUR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BUR Butterfly Map → + Track BUR →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

2.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -24.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BUR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BUR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BUR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BUR)

Financials Rank #995 of 1097 ⚔️ CGBD vs BUR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BUR vs. CGBD, CD, WRLD, LU)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Burford Capital Limited (BUR) ranks #995 by composite RQD confidence (33/100, grade E) and #609 by equity capitalization ($744.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CGBD leads on earnings valuation at 10.6x trailing P/E, while WRLD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.8% ROIC and — gross margin. WRLD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 55/100 (D+) compared with BUR at 33/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BUR ACTIVE Burford Capital Limited	E	33/100	12.2x	—	9.7%	+10.29%	$744.0M	Benchmark Subject
CGBD Carlyle Secured Lending Inc.	D-	38/100	10.6x	—	6.0%	+1.86%	$741.7M	/cgbd-vs-bur →
CD Chaince Digital Holdings Inc.	D-	38/100	—	—	-7.2%	-14.14%	$739.2M	/cd-vs-bur →
WRLD World Acceptance Corporation	D+	55/100	23.7x	—	9.8%	+0.58%	$767.0M	/wrld-vs-bur →
LU Lufax Holding Ltd (each representing twenty (20) )	D	44/100	—	—	—	+0.97%	$715.9M	/lu-vs-bur →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001714174 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Burford Capital Limited (BUR) reported GAAP revenue of $413.4M (-24.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $546.1M , and -62.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $62.6M, operating cash flow of -$29.0M, and free cash flow of -$29.3M (-113.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, BUR closed FY2025 with $6.64B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$413.4M	$62.6M	-$29.0M	-$29.3M	$6.64B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$546.1M	$146.5M	$216.7M	$216.1M	$6.18B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.09B	$610.5M	-$274.7M	-$274.7M	—	—

3. BUR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BUR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does BUR compare to CGBD and CD in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BUR?

Where is BUR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BUR last traded at $3.75 (+10.29% on volume of 2,588,433 shares), positioning the stock -0.79% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.78) and -29.38% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.31). Across its 52-week range of $2.86 to $10.10, BUR sits at the 12.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.7% ($3.35 to $4.15).

Direct Sub-Reports: BUR RQD Cockpit BUR 12M Forecast BUR Earnings & Move BUR Dividends & DRIP BUR Insiders & 13F BUR Whale Options BUR Profit Sankey BUR News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 33/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BUR — Burford Capital Limited: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Burford Capital Limited (BUR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 33/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $3.75 (+10.29% 1D, market capitalization $744.0M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.7%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 56.2%, and free cash flow yield of -3.84%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (7/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

And profile, Burford Capital Limited is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Finance: Consumer Services industry. The profile does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model beyond the sector and industry classification. Per the financials, the company reported revenue of $413.4M for FY 2025 and $546.1M for FY 2024, with operating income that is large relative to revenue.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Burford Capital Limited (BUR) reported $413.4M in annual revenue (up from $546.1M in FY2024, -24.3% YoY) and $62.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.09B revenue, $610.5M net income) through FY2025, BUR scaled operating cash flow to -$29.0M and free cash flow to -$29.3M, backed by $6.64B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 33/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -3.84% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.86 – $10.10 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 12.2x trailing P/E against 56.2% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies are — Sector correlations beyond the Financials classification are — The main second-order watch item from available data is the interaction between the stock's Beta of 1.0 and the sector sensitivity referenced in the Macro Regime Fit pillar; the source does not quantify that sensitivity further.

Key Question #1: Can BUR sustain or expand its 56.2% operating margin and 9.7% ROIC against Finance: Consumer Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $413.4M and free cash flow of -$29.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is BUR's 11.3x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

BUR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Burford Capital Limited (BUR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BUR Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stocktwits • 22h ago

BUR: Burford Capital Limited Latest Stock Price, Analysis, News and Trading Ideas

Stocktwits report covering Burford Capital Limited (BUR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo! Finance Canada • 1d ago

Burford Capital Limited (BUR) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Burford Capital Limited (BUR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

REG - Burford Capital Ltd - Notice of 3Q26 Results & Results Call Details

TradingView report covering Burford Capital Limited (BUR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Burford Capital Limited $BUR Stock: Cooke & Bieler LP Lowers Stake