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Why BUR Stock surged +10.29% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$3.75 +10.29% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.81

Burford Capital Limited (BUR) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 33/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $744.0M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BUR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Burford Capital Limited (NYSE: BUR) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $3.75 (+10.29% 1D, market cap $744.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BUR ranks #995 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BUR compare to CGBD and CD in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), BUR carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.7%. By comparison, CGBD (Carlyle Secured Lending Inc.) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E 10.6x, ROIC 6.0%, cap $741.7M) and CD (Chaince Digital Holdings Inc.) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -7.2%, cap $739.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CGBD leads on earnings multiple (10.6x) while WRLD leads on capital efficiency (9.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BUR?
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Per BUR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001714174), Burford Capital Limited generated $413.4M in revenue (-24.3% YoY), $62.6M in net income, and -$29.3M in free cash flow against $6.64B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.81 (+1.66%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (33/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510033
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (6)Whales (5)SEC (10)Macro (5)CEO (7)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.2% Base Target
$11 Bull$3 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE BUR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BUR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (33/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BUR SCORES 33/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+7/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 35% Net Buy • Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (46.8) create a -15 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
25
Grade E$3.44-10.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
28
Grade E$3.08+7.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
30
Grade E$3.32+13% Next Q
Current
33
Grade E$3.75-8.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (25) → E (33)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BUR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While BUR currently carries a cautious 33/100 (E) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.78) and Max Pain ($3.94) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.61.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BUR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BUR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 33%NO 67%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why BUR Stock surged +10.29% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Burford Capital Limited (BUR) surged +10.29% to $3.75, trading at 12% of its 52-week range ($2.86 – $10.1). Stretched risk/reward at 12x P/E (10% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 12% of its 52-week range ($2.86 – $10.1) with RSI-14 at 46.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±10.7% around $3.75 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live BUR Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BUR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of BUR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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BUR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -28.71%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $3.49H $3.75L $3.40C $3.75VOL 2.62M
RES: $4.37SUP: $2.63SMA50: $3.78SMA200: $5.31
$10.25$8.25$6.25$4.24$2.24RES $4.37SUP $2.63$3.752026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BUR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BUR Butterfly Map → + Track BUR →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
2.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -24.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BUR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BUR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BUR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BUR)

Financials Rank #995 of 1097 ⚔️ CGBD vs BUR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BUR vs. CGBD, CD, WRLD, LU)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Burford Capital Limited (BUR) ranks #995 by composite RQD confidence (33/100, grade E) and #609 by equity capitalization ($744.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CGBD leads on earnings valuation at 10.6x trailing P/E, while WRLD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.8% ROIC and — gross margin. WRLD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 55/100 (D+) compared with BUR at 33/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BUR ACTIVE
Burford Capital Limited
E 33/100 12.2x — 9.7% +10.29% $744.0M Benchmark Subject
CGBD
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc.
D- 38/100 10.6x — 6.0% +1.86% $741.7M /cgbd-vs-bur →
CD
Chaince Digital Holdings Inc.
D- 38/100 — — -7.2% -14.14% $739.2M /cd-vs-bur →
WRLD
World Acceptance Corporation
D+ 55/100 23.7x — 9.8% +0.58% $767.0M /wrld-vs-bur →
LU
Lufax Holding Ltd (each representing twenty (20) )
D 44/100 — — — +0.97% $715.9M /lu-vs-bur →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001714174 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Burford Capital Limited (BUR) reported GAAP revenue of $413.4M (-24.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $546.1M , and -62.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $62.6M, operating cash flow of -$29.0M, and free cash flow of -$29.3M (-113.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, BUR closed FY2025 with $6.64B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $413.4M $62.6M -$29.0M -$29.3M $6.64B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $546.1M $146.5M $216.7M $216.1M $6.18B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.09B $610.5M -$274.7M -$274.7M — —

3. BUR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BUR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Burford Capital Limited (NYSE: BUR) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $3.75 (+10.29% 1D, market cap $744.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BUR ranks #995 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BUR compare to CGBD and CD in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), BUR carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.7%. By comparison, CGBD (Carlyle Secured Lending Inc.) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E 10.6x, ROIC 6.0%, cap $741.7M) and CD (Chaince Digital Holdings Inc.) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -7.2%, cap $739.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CGBD leads on earnings multiple (10.6x) while WRLD leads on capital efficiency (9.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BUR?

Per BUR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001714174), Burford Capital Limited generated $413.4M in revenue (-24.3% YoY), $62.6M in net income, and -$29.3M in free cash flow against $6.64B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BUR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BUR last traded at $3.75 (+10.29% on volume of 2,588,433 shares), positioning the stock -0.79% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.78) and -29.38% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.31). Across its 52-week range of $2.86 to $10.10, BUR sits at the 12.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.7% ($3.35 to $4.15).

Direct Sub-Reports: BUR RQD Cockpit BUR 12M Forecast BUR Earnings & Move BUR Dividends & DRIP BUR Insiders & 13F BUR Whale Options BUR Profit Sankey BUR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 33/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BUR — Burford Capital Limited: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Burford Capital Limited (BUR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 33/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $3.75 (+10.29% 1D, market capitalization $744.0M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.7%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 56.2%, and free cash flow yield of -3.84%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (7/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

And profile, Burford Capital Limited is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Finance: Consumer Services industry. The profile does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model beyond the sector and industry classification. Per the financials, the company reported revenue of $413.4M for FY 2025 and $546.1M for FY 2024, with operating income that is large relative to revenue.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Burford Capital Limited (BUR) reported $413.4M in annual revenue (up from $546.1M in FY2024, -24.3% YoY) and $62.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.09B revenue, $610.5M net income) through FY2025, BUR scaled operating cash flow to -$29.0M and free cash flow to -$29.3M, backed by $6.64B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 33/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -3.84% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.86 – $10.10 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 12.2x trailing P/E against 56.2% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies are — Sector correlations beyond the Financials classification are — The main second-order watch item from available data is the interaction between the stock's Beta of 1.0 and the sector sensitivity referenced in the Macro Regime Fit pillar; the source does not quantify that sensitivity further.

  • Key Question #1: Can BUR sustain or expand its 56.2% operating margin and 9.7% ROIC against Finance: Consumer Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $413.4M and free cash flow of -$29.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BUR's 11.3x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

BUR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Burford Capital Limited (BUR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BUR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BUR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $3.75?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BUR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BUR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $4.45 (+30.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Reported operating margin of 56.2% and a forward P/E of 11.3 suggest substantial earnings power if cash conversion improves.

Don't sleep on BUR's setup in Financials. Reported operating margin of 56.2% and a forward P/E of 11.3 suggest substantial earnings power if cash conversion improves.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (33/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — BUR's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.89 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $3.40

A negative FCF yield of -3.84%, a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and an RQD score of 33 (grade E) indicate weak cash generation and forensic

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short BUR above $3.40. A negative FCF yield of -3.84%, a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and an RQD score of 33 (grade E) indicate weak cash generation and forensic balance-sheet risk.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20) and FCF yield (-3.84%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $10.10.

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