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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / CTM
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Castellum Inc. (CTM) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$0.48 -1.86% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.48

Castellum Inc. (CTM) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 32/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $46.0M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CTM Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CTM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Castellum Inc. (NYSE: CTM) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 32/100 at a spot price of $0.48 (-1.86% 1D, market cap $46.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CTM ranks #849 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CTM compare to BGSF and DLHC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Professional Services), CTM carries a Roarable E (32/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 36.6%, and ROIC of -6.2%. By comparison, BGSF (BGSF Inc.) holds a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.2%, cap $45.3M) and DLHC (DLH Holdings Corp.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 5.8%, cap $52.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACCL leads on earnings multiple (35.4x) while DLHC leads on capital efficiency (5.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CTM?
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Per CTM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001877939), Castellum Inc. generated $52.9M in revenue (+18.1% YoY), -$2.4M in net income, and -$2.1M in free cash flow against $41.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.48 (-0.52%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (32/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510032
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (5)Whales (9)SEC (11)Macro (4)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-12.5% Base Target
$1 Bull$0 Base$0 Bear
📬 FREE CTM RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CTM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (32/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CTM SCORES 32/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (34% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.37 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (28% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
40
Grade D$0.59-3.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
37
Grade E$0.57-10.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
35
Grade E$0.51-5.9% Next Q
Current
32
Grade E$0.48-9.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (40) → E (32)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CTM Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CTM currently carries a cautious 32/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($0.59) and Max Pain ($0.50) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $1.42.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CTM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CTM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 32%NO 68%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
33.230 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
4.37>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)
5 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE2% OF RANGE
L: $0$0.48H: $1
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 5 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 12 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 15 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on CTM

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (25)

-6.2% ROIC with 36.6% gross margin and -4.39% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (55)

Altman-Z 4.37 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (27)

12/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 4/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like CTM
  • ✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CTM)

  • ✓Walkthrough of CTM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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CTM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -29.41%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $0.51H $0.51L $0.48C $0.48VOL 499.5K
RES: $0.56SUP: $0.48SMA50: $0.59SMA200: $0.71
$1.03$0.88$0.73$0.58$0.43RES $0.56SUP $0.48$0.482026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CTM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CTM Butterfly Map → + Track CTM →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +18.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CTM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CTM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CTM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CTM)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #849 of 1009 ⚔️ BGSF vs CTM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CTM vs. BGSF, DLHC, STRR, ACCL)

Industry: Professional Services (48 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Castellum Inc. (CTM) ranks #849 by composite RQD confidence (32/100, grade E) and #818 by equity capitalization ($46.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ACCL leads on earnings valuation at 35.4x trailing P/E, while DLHC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.8% ROIC and — gross margin. ACCL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with CTM at 32/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CTM ACTIVE
Castellum Inc.
E 32/100 — 36.6% -6.2% -1.86% $46.0M Benchmark Subject
BGSF
BGSF Inc.
D- 41/100 — 35.7% -24.2% -5.90% $45.3M /bgsf-vs-ctm →
DLHC
DLH Holdings Corp.
D- 40/100 — — 5.8% +0.55% $52.6M /dlhc-vs-ctm →
STRR
Star Equity Holdings Inc.
E 18/100 — 46.4% -5.3% -1.99% $36.2M /strr-vs-ctm →
ACCL
Acco Group Holdings Limited (Class A)
C+ 66/100 35.4x 44.1% — +3.20% $34.9M /accl-vs-ctm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001877939 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Castellum Inc. (CTM) reported GAAP revenue of $52.9M (+18.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $44.8M , and +16.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$2.4M, operating cash flow of -$1.9M, and free cash flow of -$2.1M (-288.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, CTM closed FY2025 with $41.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.37, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $52.9M -$2.4M -$1.9M -$2.1M $41.9M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $44.8M -$10.0M $1.1M $1.1M $37.8M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $45.2M -$17.8M -$2.3M -$2.3M — —

3. CTM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CTM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Castellum Inc. (NYSE: CTM) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 32/100 at a spot price of $0.48 (-1.86% 1D, market cap $46.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CTM ranks #849 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CTM compare to BGSF and DLHC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Professional Services), CTM carries a Roarable E (32/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 36.6%, and ROIC of -6.2%. By comparison, BGSF (BGSF Inc.) holds a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.2%, cap $45.3M) and DLHC (DLH Holdings Corp.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 5.8%, cap $52.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACCL leads on earnings multiple (35.4x) while DLHC leads on capital efficiency (5.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CTM?

Per CTM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001877939), Castellum Inc. generated $52.9M in revenue (+18.1% YoY), -$2.4M in net income, and -$2.1M in free cash flow against $41.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CTM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CTM last traded at $0.48 (-1.86% on volume of 454,130 shares), positioning the stock -18.64% below its 50-day simple moving average ($0.59) and -32.39% below its 200-day simple moving average ($0.71). Across its 52-week range of $0.48 to $1.35, CTM sits at the 0.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.5% ($1.00 to $0.53).

Direct Sub-Reports: CTM RQD Cockpit CTM 12M Forecast CTM Earnings & Move CTM Dividends & DRIP CTM Insiders & 13F CTM Whale Options CTM Profit Sankey CTM News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 32/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CTM — Castellum Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Castellum Inc. (CTM) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 32/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $0.48 (-1.86% 1D, market capitalization $46.0M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -6.2%, gross margin of 36.6%, operating margin of -5.3%, and free cash flow yield of -4.39%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (4/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.37, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Castellum Inc. (CTM) is listed on the NYSE and classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and Professional Services industry,. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 36.6%, which indicates the service-based revenue structure.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Castellum Inc. (CTM) reported $52.9M in annual revenue (up from $44.8M in FY2024, +18.1% YoY) and -$2.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($45.2M revenue, -$17.8M net income) through FY2025, CTM scaled operating cash flow to -$1.9M and free cash flow to -$2.1M, backed by $41.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 32/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -4.39% and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.48 – $1.35 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -5.3% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are — A prospective investor should note that the absence of graph linkages means no second-order ripple effects can be sourced from this dataset.

  • Key Question #1: Can CTM sustain or expand its -5.3% operating margin and -6.2% ROIC against Professional Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $52.9M and free cash flow of -$2.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CTM's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

CTM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Castellum Inc. (CTM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CTM Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CTM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $0.48?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CTM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CTM:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $0.60 (+22.4%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Net loss narrowed from -$17.8M in FY 2023 to -$2.4M in FY 2025 while revenue grew to $52.9M, and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 with an A

Picked up a starter position in CTM in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $0.49. Net loss narrowed from -$17.8M in FY 2023 to -$2.4M in FY 2025 while revenue grew to $52.9M, and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 with an Altman Z of 4.37.. Trading inside a $0.48–$1.35 52-week range with -4.39% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Professional Services multiples expand this quarter.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — CTM's 11/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.38 (-22.4%)
Spot @ $0.49

ROIC of -6.2%, FCF yield of -4.39%, and an RQD score of 33 (grade E) indicate weak cash generation and insider conviction at 3/20.

Careful chasing CTM at $0.49. ROIC of -6.2%, FCF yield of -4.39%, and an RQD score of 33 (grade E) indicate weak cash generation and insider conviction at 3/20.. Gross margin is 36.6%, but operating margin is -5.3%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $0.38 on multiple compression.

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