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Stock Ratings / Financials / EARN
NLOP (30) ONL (43) SEVN (48) RC (41) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Ellington Credit Company of (EARN) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$3.33 -4.31% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.30

Ellington Credit Company of (EARN) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $130.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on EARN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is EARN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Ellington Credit Company of (NYSE: EARN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $3.33 (-4.31% 1D, market cap $130.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, EARN ranks #658 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does EARN compare to NLOP and ONL in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), EARN carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, NLOP (Net Lease Office Properties of) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $132.7M) and ONL (Orion Properties Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -22.4%, cap $135.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SEVN leads on earnings multiple (9.8x) while SEVN leads on capital efficiency (4.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EARN?
▼

Per EARN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2024, filed 2024-12-31, CIK 0001560672), Ellington Credit Company of generated $346.1M in revenue (+808.8% YoY), $6.6M in net income, and $9.1M in free cash flow against $824.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.30 (-0.97%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510050
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D · Rk D
Cash (12)Whales (3)SEC (13)Macro (7)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target
$6 Bull$3 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE EARN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for EARN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY EARN SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
58
Grade C$3.42+2.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
55
Grade C$3.52+6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
53
Grade C-$3.73-10.7% Next Q
Current
50
Grade D$3.33-1.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (58) → D (50)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a EARN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While EARN currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.96) and Max Pain ($3.50) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.01.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $EARN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “EARN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
38.430 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)
5 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE4% OF RANGE
L: $3$3.33H: $6
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground) on EARN

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (60)

3.4% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 6.66% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (42)

18/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 7/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like EARN
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring EARN)

  • ✓Walkthrough of EARN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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EARN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -29.45%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $3.64H $3.64L $3.33C $3.33VOL 455.5K
RES: $4.15SUP: $3.05SMA50: $3.96SMA200: $4.52
$5.38$4.80$4.21$3.62$3.04RES $4.15SUP $3.05$3.332026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

EARN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 EARN Butterfly Map → + Track EARN →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
14.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +808.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on EARN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for EARN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for EARN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (EARN)

Financials Rank #658 of 1097 ⚔️ NLOP vs EARN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (EARN vs. NLOP, ONL, SEVN, RC)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ellington Credit Company of (EARN) ranks #658 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #939 by equity capitalization ($130.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SEVN leads on earnings valuation at 9.8x trailing P/E, while SEVN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 4.7% ROIC and — gross margin. EARN currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
EARN ACTIVE
Ellington Credit Company of
D 50/100 20.8x — 3.4% -4.31% $130.7M Benchmark Subject
NLOP
Net Lease Office Properties of
E 30/100 — — -35.0% -0.78% $132.7M /nlop-vs-earn →
ONL
Orion Properties Inc.
D- 43/100 — — -22.4% +2.95% $135.2M /onl-vs-earn →
SEVN
Seven Hills Realty Trust
D 48/100 9.8x — 4.7% +1.07% $149.5M /sevn-vs-earn →
RC
Ready Capital Corporation
D- 41/100 — — -14.3% 0.00% $176.8M /rc-vs-earn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2024)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2024-12-31 • CIK 0001560672 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2024, filed 2024-12-31), Ellington Credit Company of (EARN) reported GAAP revenue of $346.1M (+808.8% vs. FY2023 revenue of $38.1M ) , GAAP net income of $6.6M, operating cash flow of $9.1M, and free cash flow of $9.1M (+190.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, EARN closed FY2024 with $824.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $346.1M $6.6M $9.1M $9.1M $824.1M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $38.1M $4.6M -$10.0M -$10.0M — —

3. EARN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is EARN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Ellington Credit Company of (NYSE: EARN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $3.33 (-4.31% 1D, market cap $130.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, EARN ranks #658 in composite RQD confidence.

How does EARN compare to NLOP and ONL in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), EARN carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, NLOP (Net Lease Office Properties of) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $132.7M) and ONL (Orion Properties Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -22.4%, cap $135.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SEVN leads on earnings multiple (9.8x) while SEVN leads on capital efficiency (4.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EARN?

Per EARN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2024, filed 2024-12-31, CIK 0001560672), Ellington Credit Company of generated $346.1M in revenue (+808.8% YoY), $6.6M in net income, and $9.1M in free cash flow against $824.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is EARN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

EARN last traded at $3.33 (-4.31% on volume of 538,882 shares), positioning the stock -15.91% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.96) and -26.33% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.52). Across its 52-week range of $3.22 to $5.72, EARN sits at the 4.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.4% ($2.98 to $3.68).

Direct Sub-Reports: EARN RQD Cockpit EARN 12M Forecast EARN Earnings & Move EARN Dividends & DRIP EARN Insiders & 13F EARN Whale Options EARN Profit Sankey EARN News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 50/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

EARN — Ellington Credit Company of: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2024-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Ellington Credit Company of (EARN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 50/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $3.33 (-4.31% 1D, market capitalization $130.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.4%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 6.66%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, specifically the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry. The source profile describes the company's market capitalization as $0.1B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2024 (filed 2024-12-31), Ellington Credit Company of (EARN) reported $346.1M in annual revenue (up from $38.1M in FY2023, +808.8% YoY) and $6.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($38.1M revenue, $4.6M net income) through FY2024, EARN scaled operating cash flow to $9.1M and free cash flow to $9.1M, backed by $824.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 50/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 6.66% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.22 – $5.72 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 20.8x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Real Estate Investment Trusts (Financials), EARN carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can EARN sustain or expand its — operating margin and 3.4% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2024 revenue of $346.1M and free cash flow of $9.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is EARN's 19.3x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

EARN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ellington Credit Company of (EARN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to EARN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 82d ago
Ellington Credit Q2 Earnings Call Highlights

Ellington Credit (NYSE:EARN) reported an 8.1% economic return for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, as the company expanded and repositioned its collateralized loan obligation portfolio following market volatility earlier

Read Full Source ↗
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

EARN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $3.33?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON EARN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on EARN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $4.52 (+29.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider Conviction scores 15/20 and the stock carries a 6.66% FCF yield, the strongest pillar and cash-generation signal in the RQD rat

Here is why I am bullish on EARN here at $3.48: Insider Conviction scores 15/20 and the stock carries a 6.66% FCF yield, the strongest pillar and cash-generation signal in the RQD rating.. Compare EARN's 0.0% operating margin and 3.4% ROIC against the rest of Real Estate Investment Trusts. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $3.31 are getting bought.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Fair point on 20.8x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Real Estate Investment Trusts. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.68 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $3.48

The RQD rating assigns a D+ grade with a 58 score and a verdict of Roarable Sell, with Whale 13F Flow scoring only 6/20.

I respect the product at Ellington Credit Company of, but the stock at $3.48 is a different story. The RQD rating assigns a D+ grade with a 58 score and a verdict of Roarable Sell, with Whale 13F Flow scoring only 6/20.. FCF yield is 6.66% and RQD sits at 50/100 (D) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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