MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 1d ago
Weekly Closed-End Fund Roundup (October 25, 2026)Weekly CEF update: sector performance, muni resilience, commodity weakness, HERZ tender results, and CLO equity selloff. Read the full analysis here.
Why EARN Stock dropped -4.31% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$3.33 -4.31% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.30
Ellington Credit Company of (EARN) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $130.7M
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Is EARN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Ellington Credit Company of (NYSE: EARN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $3.33 (-4.31% 1D, market cap $130.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, EARN ranks #658 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does EARN compare to NLOP and ONL in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), EARN carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, NLOP (Net Lease Office Properties of) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $132.7M) and ONL (Orion Properties Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -22.4%, cap $135.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SEVN leads on earnings multiple (9.8x) while SEVN leads on capital efficiency (4.7% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EARN?
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Per EARN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2024, filed 2024-12-31, CIK 0001560672), Ellington Credit Company of generated $346.1M in revenue (+808.8% YoY), $6.6M in net income, and $9.1M in free cash flow against $824.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.30 (-0.97%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for EARN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY EARN SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (30% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (26% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$3.42+2.9% Next Q
58
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$3.52+6% Next Q
55
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C-$3.73-10.7% Next Q
53
CurrentGrade D$3.33-1.4% Hist 90D α
50
Trajectory: C (58) → D (50)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a EARN Turnaround Squeeze
While EARN currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.96) and Max Pain ($3.50) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.01.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $EARN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “EARN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why EARN Stock dropped -4.31% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Ellington Credit Company of (EARN) dropped -4.31% to $3.33, trading at 4% of its 52-week range ($3.22 – $5.72). Stretched risk/reward at 21x P/E (3% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 4% of its 52-week range ($3.22 – $5.72) with RSI-14 at 38.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±10.4% around $3.33 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $9.1M annual free cash flow.
Live EARN Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREFintel • 7d ago
Ellington Credit Company Enters into $125,000,000 Equity Distribution AgreementMARKET WIREBenzinga • 15d ago
Piper Sandler Maintains Overweight on Ellington Credit, Lowers Price Target to $4.5Piper Sandler analyst Crispin Love maintains Ellington Credit (NYSE:EARN) with a Overweight and lowers the price target from $5 to $4.5.
MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 17d ago
Weekly Closed-End Fund Roundup (October 11, 2026)CEFs were mixed this week, with 10 of 26 sectors rising on price, 15 of 26 on NAV, and MLPs leading while Senior Loans lagging.
CATALYSTBenzinga • 18d ago
Ellington Credit Announces $20M Buyback PlanSEC.
MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 27d ago
Ellington Credit Declares Monthly Common DistributionOLD GREENWICH, Conn., October 07, 2026--Ellington Credit Company (NYSE: EARN) ("we" or the "Fund") today announced that its Board of Trustees has declared a monthly common distribution of $0.08 per share, payable on Nove
MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 82d ago
Ellington Credit Q2 Earnings Call HighlightsEllington Credit (NYSE:EARN) reported an 8.1% economic return for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, as the company expanded and repositioned its collateralized loan obligation portfolio following market volatility earlier
MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 92d ago
Ellington Credit Company Announces Release Date of Earnings, Conference Call, and Investor PresentationOLD GREENWICH, Conn., August 03, 2026--Ellington Credit Company (NYSE: EARN) (the "Company") today announced that it will release financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 after market close on Wednesday, Aug
MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 82d ago
Ellington Credit Company Q1 2027 Earnings Call SummaryMoby summary of Ellington Credit Company's Q1 2027 earnings call
CATALYSTYahoo Finance • 148d ago
Ellington Credit Declares Monthly Common DividendOLD GREENWICH, Conn., June 08, 2026--Ellington Credit Company (NYSE: EARN) ("we" or the "Fund") today announced that its Board of Trustees has declared a monthly common dividend of $0.08 per share, payable on July 31, 20
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring EARN)
- ✓Walkthrough of EARN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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EARN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -29.45%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $3.64H $3.64L $3.33C $3.33VOL 455.5K
RES: $4.15SUP: $3.05SMA50: $3.96SMA200: $4.52
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
EARN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
14.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +808.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on EARN today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for EARN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for EARN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (EARN)
Financials Rank #658 of 1097
⚔️ NLOP vs EARN Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (EARN vs. NLOP, ONL, SEVN, RC)
Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ellington Credit Company of (EARN) ranks #658 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #939 by equity capitalization ($130.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SEVN leads on earnings valuation at 9.8x trailing P/E, while SEVN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 4.7% ROIC and — gross margin. EARN currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 50/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EARN
ACTIVE
Ellington Credit Company of | D | 50/100 | 20.8x | — | 3.4% | -4.31% | $130.7M | Benchmark Subject |
| NLOP Net Lease Office Properties of | E | 30/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -0.78% | $132.7M | /nlop-vs-earn → |
| ONL Orion Properties Inc. | D- | 43/100 | — | — | -22.4% | +2.95% | $135.2M | /onl-vs-earn → |
| SEVN Seven Hills Realty Trust | D | 48/100 | 9.8x | — | 4.7% | +1.07% | $149.5M | /sevn-vs-earn → |
| RC Ready Capital Corporation | D- | 41/100 | — | — | -14.3% | 0.00% | $176.8M | /rc-vs-earn → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2024)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2024-12-31 • CIK 0001560672 ↗In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2024, filed 2024-12-31), Ellington Credit Company of (EARN) reported GAAP revenue of $346.1M (+808.8% vs. FY2023 revenue of $38.1M ) , GAAP net income of $6.6M, operating cash flow of $9.1M, and free cash flow of $9.1M (+190.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, EARN closed FY2024 with $824.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $346.1M | $6.6M | $9.1M | $9.1M | $824.1M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $38.1M | $4.6M | -$10.0M | -$10.0M | — | — |
3. EARN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs EARN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, Ellington Credit Company of (NYSE: EARN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $3.33 (-4.31% 1D, market cap $130.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, EARN ranks #658 in composite RQD confidence.
How does EARN compare to NLOP and ONL in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), EARN carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, NLOP (Net Lease Office Properties of) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $132.7M) and ONL (Orion Properties Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -22.4%, cap $135.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SEVN leads on earnings multiple (9.8x) while SEVN leads on capital efficiency (4.7% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EARN?
Per EARN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2024, filed 2024-12-31, CIK 0001560672), Ellington Credit Company of generated $346.1M in revenue (+808.8% YoY), $6.6M in net income, and $9.1M in free cash flow against $824.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is EARN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
EARN last traded at $3.33 (-4.31% on volume of 538,882 shares), positioning the stock -15.91% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.96) and -26.33% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.52). Across its 52-week range of $3.22 to $5.72, EARN sits at the 4.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.4% ($2.98 to $3.68).
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 50/100 (D)
✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED
EARN — Ellington Credit Company of: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2024-12-31
1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Ellington Credit Company of (EARN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 50/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $3.33 (-4.31% 1D, market capitalization $130.7M).
- Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.4%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 6.66%.
- Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
- Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.
2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory
Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, specifically the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry. The source profile describes the company's market capitalization as $0.1B.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2024 (filed 2024-12-31), Ellington Credit Company of (EARN) reported $346.1M in annual revenue (up from $38.1M in FY2023, +808.8% YoY) and $6.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($38.1M revenue, $4.6M net income) through FY2024, EARN scaled operating cash flow to $9.1M and free cash flow to $9.1M, backed by $824.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt.
3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff
- 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 50/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 6.66% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.22 – $5.72 52-week range.
- 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 20.8x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.
4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch
Operating in Real Estate Investment Trusts (Financials), EARN carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.
- Key Question #1: Can EARN sustain or expand its — operating margin and 3.4% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
- Key Question #2: Following FY2024 revenue of $346.1M and free cash flow of $9.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
- Key Question #3: How sensitive is EARN's 19.3x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?
EARN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ellington Credit Company of (EARN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
🟡 MARKET WIRE SeekingAlpha • 1d ago
Weekly Closed-End Fund Roundup (October 25, 2026) Weekly CEF update: sector performance, muni resilience, commodity weakness, HERZ tender results, and CLO equity selloff. Read the full analysis here.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Fintel • 7d ago
Ellington Credit Company Enters into $125,000,000 Equity Distribution Agreement 🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 15d ago
Piper Sandler Maintains Overweight on Ellington Credit, Lowers Price Target to $4.5 Piper Sandler analyst Crispin Love maintains Ellington Credit (NYSE:EARN) with a Overweight and lowers the price target from $5 to $4.5.
🟡 MARKET WIRE SeekingAlpha • 17d ago
Weekly Closed-End Fund Roundup (October 11, 2026) CEFs were mixed this week, with 10 of 26 sectors rising on price, 15 of 26 on NAV, and MLPs leading while Senior Loans lagging.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 27d ago
Ellington Credit Declares Monthly Common Distribution OLD GREENWICH, Conn., October 07, 2026--Ellington Credit Company (NYSE: EARN) ("we" or the "Fund") today announced that its Board of Trustees has declared a monthly common distribution of $0.08 per share, payable on Nove
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 82d ago
Ellington Credit Q2 Earnings Call Highlights Ellington Credit (NYSE:EARN) reported an 8.1% economic return for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, as the company expanded and repositioned its collateralized loan obligation portfolio following market volatility earlier
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 92d ago
Ellington Credit Company Announces Release Date of Earnings, Conference Call, and Investor Presentation OLD GREENWICH, Conn., August 03, 2026--Ellington Credit Company (NYSE: EARN) (the "Company") today announced that it will release financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 after market close on Wednesday, Aug
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE
3 Active Posts & Replies
EARN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $3.33?
🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON EARN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH
🎯 Target: $4.52 (+29.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate Insider Conviction scores 15/20 and the stock carries a 6.66% FCF yield, the strongest pillar and cash-generation signal in the RQD rat
Here is why I am bullish on EARN here at $3.48: Insider Conviction scores 15/20 and the stock carries a 6.66% FCF yield, the strongest pillar and cash-generation signal in the RQD rating.. Compare EARN's 0.0% operating margin and 3.4% ROIC against the rest of Real Estate Investment Trusts. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $3.31 are getting bought.
CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL
@MeanReversion_88 Fair point on 20.8x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Real Estate Investment Trusts. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.
ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH
🎯 Target: $2.68 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $3.48 The RQD rating assigns a D+ grade with a 58 score and a verdict of Roarable Sell, with Whale 13F Flow scoring only 6/20.
I respect the product at Ellington Credit Company of, but the stock at $3.48 is a different story. The RQD rating assigns a D+ grade with a 58 score and a verdict of Roarable Sell, with Whale 13F Flow scoring only 6/20.. FCF yield is 6.66% and RQD sits at 50/100 (D) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?