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Stock Ratings / Materials / ERO
USAR (39) AUGO (52) NEXA (47) BVN (45) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$29.16 +0.38% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.12

Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.03B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ERO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ERO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Ero Copper Corp. (NYSE: ERO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $29.16 (+0.38% 1D, market cap $3.03B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, ERO ranks #117 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ERO compare to USAR and AUGO in the Materials sector?
▼

Within the Materials sector (Metal Mining), ERO carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, USAR (USA Rare Earth Inc.) holds a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -14.9%, cap $3.61B) and AUGO (Aura Minerals Inc.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $5.55B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AUGO leads on earnings multiple (32.8x) while AUGO leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ERO?
▼

For Ero Copper Corp. (ERO), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity and sector rank #117 in Materials, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.13 (-0.12%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510046
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D · Rk D
Cash (12)Whales (6)SEC (13)Macro (6)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.4% Base Target
$43 Bull$28 Base$22 Bear
📬 FREE ERO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ERO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ERO SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 2.1% FCF Margin ($84.8M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (37) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
54
Grade C-$36.65-10.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
51
Grade C-$32.90-1.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
49
Grade D$32.52-10.3% Next Q
Current
46
Grade D$29.16-6.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (54) → D (46)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ERO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ERO currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($35.12) and Max Pain ($30.62) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $42.87.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ERO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ERO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
3730 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
7 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE46% OF RANGE
L: $19$29.16H: $41
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 15 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 19 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground) on ERO

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (60)

14.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (35)

15/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 6/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ERO
  • ✓Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ERO)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ERO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ERO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +19.22%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $31.12H $31.12L $29.05C $29.16VOL 2.36M
RES: $37.65SUP: $28.66SMA50: $35.12SMA200: $30.64
$42.08$36.89$31.70$26.51$21.32RES $37.65SUP $28.66$29.162026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ERO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ERO Butterfly Map → + Track ERO →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ERO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ERO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ERO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ERO)

Materials Rank #117 of 270 ⚔️ USAR vs ERO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (ERO vs. USAR, AUGO, NEXA, BVN)

Industry: Metal Mining (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) ranks #117 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #93 by equity capitalization ($3.03B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AUGO leads on earnings valuation at 32.8x trailing P/E, while AUGO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. AUGO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with ERO at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ERO ACTIVE
Ero Copper Corp.
D 46/100 — — — +0.38% $3.03B Benchmark Subject
USAR
USA Rare Earth Inc.
D- 39/100 — 11.9% -14.9% -7.95% $3.61B /usar-vs-ero →
AUGO
Aura Minerals Inc.
D+ 52/100 32.8x — 9.9% +0.03% $5.55B /augo-vs-ero →
NEXA
Nexa Resources S.A.
D 47/100 — — — +3.16% $1.47B /nexa-vs-ero →
BVN
Buenaventura Mining Company Inc.
D 45/100 — — — +1.63% $6.71B /bvn-vs-ero →

2. ERO Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) operates in Metal Mining (Materials) with an equity capitalization of $3.03B, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.

3. ERO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ERO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Ero Copper Corp. (NYSE: ERO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $29.16 (+0.38% 1D, market cap $3.03B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, ERO ranks #117 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ERO compare to USAR and AUGO in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Metal Mining), ERO carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, USAR (USA Rare Earth Inc.) holds a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -14.9%, cap $3.61B) and AUGO (Aura Minerals Inc.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $5.55B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AUGO leads on earnings multiple (32.8x) while AUGO leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ERO?

For Ero Copper Corp. (ERO), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity and sector rank #117 in Materials, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ERO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ERO last traded at $29.16 (+0.38% on volume of 1,964,505 shares), positioning the stock -16.97% below its 50-day simple moving average ($35.12) and -4.83% below its 200-day simple moving average ($30.64). Across its 52-week range of $19.09 to $40.83, ERO sits at the 46.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 37.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.5% ($26.39 to $31.93).

Direct Sub-Reports: ERO RQD Cockpit ERO 12M Forecast ERO Earnings & Move ERO Dividends & DRIP ERO Insiders & 13F ERO Whale Options ERO Profit Sankey ERO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 46/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ERO — Ero Copper Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-11-03

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 46/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $29.16 (+0.38% 1D, market capitalization $3.03B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of N/A, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Ero Copper Corp. Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Materials sector and the Metal Mining industry..2B. — Customers, products sold, and revenue model are not described in the source data.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 46/100): Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $19.09 – $40.83 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector context provided is Materials / Metal Mining, and the market data shows a beta of 1.0.

  • Key Question #1: Can ERO sustain or expand its — operating margin and — ROIC against Metal Mining peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Will free cash flow conversion (— FCF yield) strengthen balance-sheet liquidity (Altman Z-Score N/A) toward the $40.83 52-week high?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ERO's equity valuation to Materials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ERO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ERO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ERO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $29.16?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ERO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ERO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $35.44 (+22.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The stock is up 134% and carries a raised $40.14 price target implying 17% upside, with a Forensic Balance Sheet pillar score of 13/20

Picked up a starter position in ERO in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $29.05. The stock is up 134% and carries a raised $40.14 price target implying 17% upside, with a Forensic Balance Sheet pillar score of 13/20 reflecting Altman Z 2.5 and Piotroski F 6/9.. Trading inside a $19.09–$40.83 52-week range with 0.0% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Metal Mining multiples expand this quarter.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@CashFlowKing Agree on the RQD 46/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $29.05 and keeping dry powder in case we test $27.02.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $24.40 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $29.05

The RQD rating of 52 (D+, Roarable Sell) is driven by 0% ROIC, 0% FCF yield, and a Whale 13F Flow score of only 7/20, with no reported

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on ERO: The RQD rating of 52 (D+, Roarable Sell) is driven by 0% ROIC, 0% FCF yield, and a Whale 13F Flow score of only 7/20, with no reported financials to support the cash-generation case.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Metal Mining triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

LIVE TAPE