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Stock Ratings / Financials / MARA
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MARA Holdings Inc. (MARA) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$6.43 -5.02% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.36

MARA Holdings Inc. (MARA) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $2.62B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MARA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MARA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, MARA Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: MARA) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $6.43 (-5.02% 1D, market cap $2.62B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MARA ranks #1035 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MARA compare to SII and UWMC in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), MARA carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -15.8%. By comparison, SII (Sprott Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.61B) and UWMC (UWM Holdings Corporation (Class A)) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 9.8x, ROIC 15.3%, cap $2.52B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UWMC leads on earnings multiple (9.8x) while ASST leads on capital efficiency (18.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MARA?
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Per MARA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001507605), MARA Holdings Inc. generated $58.7M in revenue (-39.2% YoY), -$1.31B in net income, and -$1.21B in free cash flow against $7.29B in total assets and $3.20B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.36 (-1.09%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510028
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (7)Whales (5)SEC (8)Macro (3)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.5% Base Target
$20 Bull$6 Base$4 Bear
📬 FREE MARA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MARA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (28/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MARA SCORES 28/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+7/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (30.6) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
36
Grade E$8.23-5.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
33
Grade E$7.79-5.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
31
Grade E$7.35-12.5% Next Q
Current
28
Grade E$6.43-10% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (36) → E (28)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MARA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MARA currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.11) and Max Pain ($6.75) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $19.62.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MARA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MARA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 28%NO 72%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERSOLD (<32)
30.630 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
4 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE2% OF RANGE
L: $6$6.43H: $19
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 7 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 10 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: ERQD 11 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on MARA

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (35)

-15.8% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -18.00% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (40)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (22)

10/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 3/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like MARA
  • ✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MARA)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MARA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MARA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -45.65%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $7.16H $7.16L $6.43C $6.43VOL 43.14M
RES: $14.62SUP: $6.24SMA50: $10.11SMA200: $10.74
$17.13$14.23$11.33$8.43$5.53RES $14.62SUP $6.24$6.432026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MARA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MARA Butterfly Map → + Track MARA →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
20.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -39.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MARA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →
IBIT → MARA Confirmed Filing
Spot ETF inflows into IBIT support USD Bitcoin price after the April 2024 block-reward halving cut miner BTC issuance by 50% (3.125 BTC/block), prompting MARA Holdings to pair energized EH/s mining with convertible-funded BTC purchases.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MARA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MARA)

Financials Rank #1035 of 1097 ⚔️ SII vs MARA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MARA vs. SII, UWMC, ASST, IOND)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MARA Holdings Inc. (MARA) ranks #1035 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #386 by equity capitalization ($2.62B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UWMC leads on earnings valuation at 9.8x trailing P/E, while ASST leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.8% ROIC and — gross margin. ASST currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with MARA at 28/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MARA ACTIVE
MARA Holdings Inc.
E 28/100 — — -15.8% -5.02% $2.62B Benchmark Subject
SII
Sprott Inc.
D- 43/100 — — — +1.17% $2.61B /sii-vs-mara →
UWMC
UWM Holdings Corporation (Class A)
D 49/100 9.8x — 15.3% 0.00% $2.52B /uwmc-vs-mara →
ASST
Strive Inc.
C+ 66/100 32.8x — 18.8% -6.28% $2.83B /asst-vs-mara →
IOND
Ionic Digital Inc. (Class A)
D 45/100 — — — -4.65% $2.98B /iond-vs-mara →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001507605 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MARA Holdings Inc. (MARA) reported GAAP revenue of $58.7M (-39.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $96.5M , and +1.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$1.31B, operating cash flow of -$802.7M, and free cash flow of -$1.21B (-30.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, MARA closed FY2025 with $7.29B in total assets against $3.20B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $58.7M -$1.31B -$802.7M -$1.21B $7.29B $3.20B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $96.5M $541.3M -$677.0M -$927.8M $6.80B $2.45B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $57.7M $259.1M -$315.7M -$318.2M $1.52B $356.2M

3. MARA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MARA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, MARA Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: MARA) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $6.43 (-5.02% 1D, market cap $2.62B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MARA ranks #1035 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MARA compare to SII and UWMC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), MARA carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -15.8%. By comparison, SII (Sprott Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.61B) and UWMC (UWM Holdings Corporation (Class A)) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 9.8x, ROIC 15.3%, cap $2.52B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UWMC leads on earnings multiple (9.8x) while ASST leads on capital efficiency (18.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MARA?

Per MARA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001507605), MARA Holdings Inc. generated $58.7M in revenue (-39.2% YoY), -$1.31B in net income, and -$1.21B in free cash flow against $7.29B in total assets and $3.20B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MARA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MARA last traded at $6.43 (-5.02% on volume of 30,383,966 shares), positioning the stock -36.40% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.11) and -40.13% below its 200-day simple moving average ($10.74). Across its 52-week range of $6.45 to $18.69, MARA sits at the 0.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 30.6 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($5.63 to $7.23).

Direct Sub-Reports: MARA RQD Cockpit MARA 12M Forecast MARA Earnings & Move MARA Dividends & DRIP MARA Insiders & 13F MARA Whale Options MARA Profit Sankey MARA News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 28/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MARA — MARA Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

MARA Holdings Inc. (MARA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 28/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $6.43 (-5.02% 1D, market capitalization $2.62B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -15.8%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -18.00%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.03x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

MARA Holdings Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, classified under Finance: Consumer Services. The company is positioned around Bitcoin mining and high-compute power, with its mechanism tied to energized mining capacity paired with Bitcoin treasury purchases. Per the market data, gross margin is 0% and operating margin is -60%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), MARA Holdings Inc. (MARA) reported $58.7M in annual revenue (up from $96.5M in FY2024, -39.2% YoY) and -$1.31B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($57.7M revenue, $259.1M net income) through FY2025, MARA scaled operating cash flow to -$802.7M and free cash flow to -$1.21B, backed by $7.29B in total assets against $3.20B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 28/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -18.00% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $6.45 – $18.69 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.03x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The graph states that global network difficulty rising above 100T+ compresses USD hashprice when Bitcoin spot consolidates, forcing fleet upgrades toward <17 J/TH ASICs. A competing explanation in the same graph is that investors may prefer zero-dilution ETF shares over miners carrying share-count dilution and ASIC depreciation, which could compress miner multiples. Sector correlation data is — beyond the 1.03 beta.

  • Key Question #1: Can MARA sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -15.8% ROIC against Finance: Consumer Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $58.7M and free cash flow of -$1.21B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $3.20B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MARA's 27.0x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.03x)?

MARA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for MARA Holdings Inc. (MARA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MARA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MARA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $6.43?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MARA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MARA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $8.12 (+19.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The stock has a forward P/E of 27 and a GREEN catalyst headline citing the CEO's description of the company as no longer simply a Bitco

Long MARA at $6.77 targeting $8.12. The stock has a forward P/E of 27 and a GREEN catalyst headline citing the CEO's description of the company as no longer simply a Bitcoin miner.. Institutional whale score is 5/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $6.45 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@ShortSeller_Dan Shorting a 5/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $6.77 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $5.69 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $6.77

The RQD score is 28 (E), with ROIC at -15.8%, FCF of -$1.21B in FY 2025, and debt rising to $3.20B.

I respect the product at MARA Holdings Inc., but the stock at $6.77 is a different story. The RQD score is 28 (E), with ROIC at -15.8%, FCF of -$1.21B in FY 2025, and debt rising to $3.20B.. FCF yield is -18.0% and RQD sits at 28/100 (E) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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