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Stock Ratings / Health Care / NAGE
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Niagen Bioscience Inc. (NAGE) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$2.40 +3.00% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.41

Niagen Bioscience Inc. (NAGE) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $184.4M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NAGE Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NAGE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Niagen Bioscience Inc. (NASDAQ: NAGE) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $2.40 (+3.00% 1D, market cap $184.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BEARISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NAGE compare to GLAS and MDWD in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Medicinal Chemicals and Botanical Products), NAGE carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.4x, gross margin of 64.3%, and ROIC of 16.8%. By comparison, GLAS (Glass House Brands Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares) holds a E grade (18/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -9.2%, cap $191.8M) and MDWD (MediWound Ltd.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $171.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NAGE leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while NAGE leads on capital efficiency (16.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NAGE?
▼

Per NAGE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001386570), Niagen Bioscience Inc. generated $129.4M in revenue (+29.9% YoY), $17.4M in net income, and $13.5M in free cash flow against $106.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.41 (+0.35%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 10.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510057
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Cash (13)Whales (3)SEC (14)Macro (9)CEO (18)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.4% Base Target
$8 Bull$2 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE NAGE RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NAGE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NAGE SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (32% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.40 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
65
Grade C+$2.58-2.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
62
Grade C+$2.51-0.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
60
Grade C$2.50-4% Next Q
Current
57
Grade D+$2.40-0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (65) → D+ (57)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NAGE Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, NAGE faces multiple-compression risk if 11.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 61.8% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($2.83) or 200D SMA ($3.88) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($2.39) toward Bear Floor ($1.86).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NAGE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NAGE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
35.930 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
4.40>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
7 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE2% OF RANGE
L: $2$2.40H: $8
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (64.3% gross margin), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: CRQD 13 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground) on NAGE

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (65)

16.8% ROIC with 64.3% gross margin and 6.83% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (70)

Altman-Z 4.40 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (50)

21/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 9/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like NAGE
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NAGE)

  • ✓Walkthrough of NAGE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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NAGE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -51.32%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $2.50H $2.50L $2.33C $2.40VOL 526.4K
RES: $2.67SUP: $2.30SMA50: $2.83SMA200: $3.88
$7.26$5.92$4.58$3.24$1.90RES $2.67SUP $2.30$2.402026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NAGE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NAGE Butterfly Map → + Track NAGE →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
1.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +29.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NAGE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NAGE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NAGE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NAGE)

Health Care Rank #193 of 1015 ⚔️ GLAS vs NAGE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (NAGE vs. GLAS, MDWD, ACB, USNA)

Industry: Medicinal Chemicals and Botanical Products (23 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Niagen Bioscience Inc. (NAGE) ranks #193 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #586 by equity capitalization ($184.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NAGE leads on earnings valuation at 11.4x trailing P/E, while NAGE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.8% ROIC and 64.3% gross margin. NAGE currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NAGE ACTIVE
Niagen Bioscience Inc.
D+ 57/100 11.4x 64.3% 16.8% +3.00% $184.4M Benchmark Subject
GLAS
Glass House Brands Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares
E 18/100 — 42.3% -9.2% +8.26% $191.8M /glas-vs-nage →
MDWD
MediWound Ltd.
D 48/100 — — — +1.50% $171.7M /mdwd-vs-nage →
ACB
Aurora Cannabis Inc.
D+ 54/100 — — — +3.94% $251.5M /acb-vs-nage →
USNA
USANA Health Sciences Inc.
D 50/100 24.6x 78.3% 7.9% +2.87% $264.4M /usna-vs-nage →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001386570 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Niagen Bioscience Inc. (NAGE) reported GAAP revenue of $129.4M (+29.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $99.6M , and +54.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $17.4M, operating cash flow of $13.5M, and free cash flow of $13.5M (+11.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, NAGE closed FY2025 with $106.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.40, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $129.4M $17.4M $13.5M $13.5M $106.4M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $99.6M $8.6M $12.1M $12.1M $68.3M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $83.6M -$4.9M $7.1M $7.1M — —

3. NAGE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NAGE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Niagen Bioscience Inc. (NASDAQ: NAGE) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $2.40 (+3.00% 1D, market cap $184.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BEARISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

How does NAGE compare to GLAS and MDWD in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medicinal Chemicals and Botanical Products), NAGE carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.4x, gross margin of 64.3%, and ROIC of 16.8%. By comparison, GLAS (Glass House Brands Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares) holds a E grade (18/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -9.2%, cap $191.8M) and MDWD (MediWound Ltd.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $171.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NAGE leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while NAGE leads on capital efficiency (16.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NAGE?

Per NAGE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001386570), Niagen Bioscience Inc. generated $129.4M in revenue (+29.9% YoY), $17.4M in net income, and $13.5M in free cash flow against $106.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NAGE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NAGE last traded at $2.40 (+3.00% on volume of 557,601 shares), positioning the stock -15.19% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.83) and -38.14% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.88). Across its 52-week range of $2.32 to $7.95, NAGE sits at the 1.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.7% ($2.22 to $2.58).

Direct Sub-Reports: NAGE RQD Cockpit NAGE 12M Forecast NAGE Earnings & Move NAGE Dividends & DRIP NAGE Insiders & 13F NAGE Whale Options NAGE Profit Sankey NAGE News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 57/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NAGE — Niagen Bioscience Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Niagen Bioscience Inc. (NAGE) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 57/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $2.40 (+3.00% 1D, market capitalization $184.4M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 16.8%, gross margin of 64.3%, operating margin of 12.6%, and free cash flow yield of 6.83%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (18/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.40, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Niagen Bioscience Inc. (NAGE) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Medicinal Chemicals and Botanical Products industry..2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Niagen Bioscience Inc. (NAGE) reported $129.4M in annual revenue (up from $99.6M in FY2024, +29.9% YoY) and $17.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($83.6M revenue, -$4.9M net income) through FY2025, NAGE scaled operating cash flow to $13.5M and free cash flow to $13.5M, backed by $106.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 57/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 6.83% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.32 – $7.95 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 11.4x trailing P/E and 12.2x EV/EBITDA against 12.6% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

A second-order watch item is that a tightening in the liquidity index would, per the signal's framing, weigh more heavily on NAGE than on the broader market.

  • Key Question #1: Can NAGE sustain or expand its 12.6% operating margin and 16.8% ROIC against Medicinal Chemicals and Botanical Products peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $129.4M and free cash flow of $13.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is NAGE's 9.6x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NAGE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Niagen Bioscience Inc. (NAGE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NAGE Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NAGE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.40?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NAGE 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NAGE:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.68 (+15.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider cluster flow scores 18/20 and FY 2025 net income reached $17.4M on $129.4M revenue, with a 16.8% ROIC.

Insider cluster flow scores 18/20 and FY 2025 net income reached $17.4M on $129.4M revenue, with a 16.8% ROIC.. When you look under the hood at NAGE, Fundamental Cash Engine is 13/20 with 64.3% gross margins and 16.8% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (3/20) has been quietly accumulating below $7.95. My 12M target is $2.68.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — NAGE's 14/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.89 (-18.9%)
Spot @ $2.33

Institutional 13F flow scores only 3/20, and the Butterfly liquidity signal rates NAGE's 2.64x net-liquidity beta as bearish with a 25/

Careful chasing NAGE at $2.33. Institutional 13F flow scores only 3/20, and the Butterfly liquidity signal rates NAGE's 2.64x net-liquidity beta as bearish with a 25/100 macro tailwind score.. Gross margin is 64.3%, but operating margin is 12.6%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $1.89 on multiple compression.

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