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GLAS (18) MDWD (48) ACB (54) USNA (50) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Niagen Bioscience Inc. (NAGE) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$2.40 +3.00% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.41

Niagen Bioscience Inc. (NAGE) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $184.4M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NAGE Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NAGE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Niagen Bioscience Inc. (NASDAQ: NAGE) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $2.40 (+3.00% 1D, market cap $184.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BEARISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NAGE compare to GLAS and MDWD in the Health Care sector?
β–Ό

Within the Health Care sector (Medicinal Chemicals and Botanical Products), NAGE carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.4x, gross margin of 64.3%, and ROIC of 16.8%. By comparison, GLAS (Glass House Brands Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares) holds a E grade (18/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -9.2%, cap $191.8M) and MDWD (MediWound Ltd.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC β€”, cap $171.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NAGE leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while NAGE leads on capital efficiency (16.8% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NAGE?
β–Ό

Per NAGE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001386570), Niagen Bioscience Inc. generated $129.4M in revenue (+29.9% YoY), $17.4M in net income, and $13.5M in free cash flow against $106.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.41 (+0.35%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) β€’ 10.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 52.2% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D+
025507510057
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ Β· Rk D+
Cash (13)Whales (3)SEC (14)Macro (9)CEO (18)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.4% Base Target
$8 Bull$2 Base$2 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE NAGE RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NAGE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±7.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY NAGE SCORES 57/100 (D+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (32% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.40 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 7/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
65
Grade C+$2.58-2.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
62
Grade C+$2.51-0.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
60
Grade C$2.50-4% Next Q
Current
57
Grade D+$2.40-0.2% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C+ (65) β†’ D+ (57)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NAGE Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, NAGE faces multiple-compression risk if 11.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 61.8% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($2.83) or 200D SMA ($3.88) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($2.39) toward Bear Floor ($1.86).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NAGEβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œNAGE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL β€’ FY 2025 (10-K)

How NAGE Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$13.5M (10.4% FCF Margin)
Revenue$129.4MGross Profit $83.2M (64.3%)Cost of Sales $46.2MOp Profit $16.3M (12.6%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $66.9MNet Profit$17.4M (13.4%)Tax/Other $0

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

β–  Revenueβ–  Net Profitβ–  Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $83.6M
FY24
Rev $99.6M
FY25
Rev $129.4M
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$129.4M64.3%12.6%$17.4M$13.5M16.8%
FY 2024$99.6M61.8%7.8%$8.6M$12.1M95%
FY 2023$83.6M64.3%-6.7%-$4.9M$7.1M16.8%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NAGE)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of NAGE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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NAGE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -51.32%πŸ›‘οΈ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $2.50H $2.50L $2.33C $2.40VOL 526.4K
RES: $2.67SUP: $2.30SMA50: $2.83SMA200: $3.88
$7.26$5.92$4.58$3.24$1.90RES $2.67SUP $2.30$2.402026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NAGE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ NAGE Butterfly Map β†’ + Track NAGE β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
1.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +29.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NAGE today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NAGE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NAGE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NAGE)

Health Care Rank #193 of 1015 βš”οΈ GLAS vs NAGE Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (NAGE vs. GLAS, MDWD, ACB, USNA)

Industry: Medicinal Chemicals and Botanical Products (23 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Niagen Bioscience Inc. (NAGE) ranks #193 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #586 by equity capitalization ($184.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NAGE leads on earnings valuation at 11.4x trailing P/E, while NAGE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.8% ROIC and 64.3% gross margin. NAGE currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NAGE ACTIVE
Niagen Bioscience Inc.
D+ 57/100 11.4x 64.3% 16.8% +3.00% $184.4M Benchmark Subject
GLAS
Glass House Brands Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares
E 18/100 β€” 42.3% -9.2% +8.26% $191.8M /glas-vs-nage β†’
MDWD
MediWound Ltd.
D 48/100 β€” β€” β€” +1.50% $171.7M /mdwd-vs-nage β†’
ACB
Aurora Cannabis Inc.
D+ 54/100 β€” β€” β€” +3.94% $251.5M /acb-vs-nage β†’
USNA
USANA Health Sciences Inc.
D 50/100 24.6x 78.3% 7.9% +2.87% $264.4M /usna-vs-nage β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001386570 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Niagen Bioscience Inc. (NAGE) reported GAAP revenue of $129.4M (+29.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $99.6M , and +54.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $17.4M, operating cash flow of $13.5M, and free cash flow of $13.5M (+11.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, NAGE closed FY2025 with $106.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.40, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $129.4M $17.4M $13.5M $13.5M $106.4M β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $99.6M $8.6M $12.1M $12.1M $68.3M β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $83.6M -$4.9M $7.1M $7.1M β€” β€”

3. NAGE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NAGE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Niagen Bioscience Inc. (NASDAQ: NAGE) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $2.40 (+3.00% 1D, market cap $184.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BEARISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

How does NAGE compare to GLAS and MDWD in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medicinal Chemicals and Botanical Products), NAGE carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.4x, gross margin of 64.3%, and ROIC of 16.8%. By comparison, GLAS (Glass House Brands Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares) holds a E grade (18/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -9.2%, cap $191.8M) and MDWD (MediWound Ltd.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC β€”, cap $171.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NAGE leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while NAGE leads on capital efficiency (16.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NAGE?

Per NAGE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001386570), Niagen Bioscience Inc. generated $129.4M in revenue (+29.9% YoY), $17.4M in net income, and $13.5M in free cash flow against $106.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NAGE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NAGE last traded at $2.40 (+3.00% on volume of 557,601 shares), positioning the stock -15.19% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.83) and -38.14% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.88). Across its 52-week range of $2.32 to $7.95, NAGE sits at the 1.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±7.7% ($2.22 to $2.58).

Direct Sub-Reports: NAGE RQD Cockpit NAGE 12M Forecast NAGE Earnings & Move NAGE Dividends & DRIP NAGE Insiders & 13F NAGE Whale Options NAGE Profit Sankey NAGE News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 57/100 (D+) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NAGE β€” Niagen Bioscience Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Niagen Bioscience Inc. (NAGE) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 57/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $2.40 (+3.00% 1D, market capitalization $184.4M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 16.8%, gross margin of 64.3%, operating margin of 12.6%, and free cash flow yield of 6.83%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (18/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.40, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Niagen Bioscience Inc. (NAGE) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Medicinal Chemicals and Botanical Products industry..2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Niagen Bioscience Inc. (NAGE) reported $129.4M in annual revenue (up from $99.6M in FY2024, +29.9% YoY) and $17.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($83.6M revenue, -$4.9M net income) through FY2025, NAGE scaled operating cash flow to $13.5M and free cash flow to $13.5M, backed by $106.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D+ β€’ RQD 57/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 6.83% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.32 – $7.95 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 11.4x trailing P/E and 12.2x EV/EBITDA against 12.6% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

A second-order watch item is that a tightening in the liquidity index would, per the signal's framing, weigh more heavily on NAGE than on the broader market.

  • Key Question #1: Can NAGE sustain or expand its 12.6% operating margin and 16.8% ROIC against Medicinal Chemicals and Botanical Products peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $129.4M and free cash flow of $13.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is NAGE's 9.6x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NAGE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Niagen Bioscience Inc. (NAGE) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to NAGE Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NAGE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $2.40?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NAGE 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NAGE:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Cross-Asset Macro Desk πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.68 (+15.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Insider cluster flow scores 18/20 and FY 2025 net income reached $17.4M on $129.4M revenue, with a 16.8% ROIC.

Insider cluster flow scores 18/20 and FY 2025 net income reached $17.4M on $129.4M revenue, with a 16.8% ROIC.. When you look under the hood at NAGE, Fundamental Cash Engine is 13/20 with 64.3% gross margins and 16.8% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (3/20) has been quietly accumulating below $7.95. My 12M target is $2.68.

VolSurface_Trader πŸ‚ BULL

Both sides have a point here β€” NAGE's 14/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.89 (-18.9%)
Spot @ $2.33

Institutional 13F flow scores only 3/20, and the Butterfly liquidity signal rates NAGE's 2.64x net-liquidity beta as bearish with a 25/

Careful chasing NAGE at $2.33. Institutional 13F flow scores only 3/20, and the Butterfly liquidity signal rates NAGE's 2.64x net-liquidity beta as bearish with a 25/100 macro tailwind score.. Gross margin is 64.3%, but operating margin is 12.6%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $1.89 on multiple compression.

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