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Stock Ratings / Health Care / NAUT
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Nautilus Biotechnology Inc. (NAUT) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$2.34 -14.47% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.27

Nautilus Biotechnology Inc. (NAUT) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $347.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NAUT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Nautilus Biotechnology Inc. (NASDAQ: NAUT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $2.34 (-14.47% 1D, market cap $347.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, NAUT ranks #407 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NAUT compare to LAB and CTKB in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Laboratory Analytical Instruments), NAUT carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, LAB (Standard BioTools Inc.) holds a E grade (27/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -28.7%, cap $240.7M) and CTKB (Cytek Biosciences Inc.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.7%, cap $796.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NAUT leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while CTKB leads on capital efficiency (-12.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NAUT?
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Per NAUT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001808805), Nautilus Biotechnology Inc. generated $80.3M in revenue (-21.3% YoY), -$59.0M in net income, and -$52.0M in free cash flow against $191.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.27 (-2.79%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
025507510043
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (7)Whales (14)SEC (10)Macro (9)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.8% Base Target
$5 Bull$2 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE NAUT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NAUT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NAUT SCORES 43/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (33% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
35
Grade E$2.05+24.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
38
Grade E$2.55+13.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
40
Grade D$2.89-19% Next Q
Current
43
Grade D-$2.34-6.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (35) → D- (43)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NAUT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NAUT currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.67) and Max Pain ($2.46) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $4.53.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NAUT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NAUT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 43%NO 57%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM
55.530 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
3 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE43% OF RANGE
L: $1$2.34H: $4
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 7 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 17 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 19 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on NAUT

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (35)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -12.99% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 3/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (43)

17/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 9/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like NAUT
  • ✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NAUT)

  • ✓Walkthrough of NAUT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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NAUT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -19.03%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $3.14H $3.14L $2.34C $2.34VOL 8.07M
RES: $3.47SUP: $0.93SMA50: $1.67SMA200: $2.13
$3.60$2.85$2.10$1.36$0.61RES $3.47SUP $0.93$2.342026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NAUT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NAUT Butterfly Map → + Track NAUT →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -21.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NAUT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NAUT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NAUT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NAUT)

Health Care Rank #407 of 1015 ⚔️ LAB vs NAUT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (NAUT vs. LAB, CTKB, PACB, QTRX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Laboratory Analytical Instruments (21 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Nautilus Biotechnology Inc. (NAUT) ranks #407 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #498 by equity capitalization ($347.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NAUT leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while CTKB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -12.7% ROIC and 51.8% gross margin. CTKB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 45/100 (D) compared with NAUT at 43/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NAUT ACTIVE
Nautilus Biotechnology Inc.
D- 43/100 — — -35.0% -14.47% $347.7M Benchmark Subject
LAB
Standard BioTools Inc.
E 27/100 — 49.9% -28.7% -0.02% $240.7M /lab-vs-naut →
CTKB
Cytek Biosciences Inc.
D 45/100 — 51.8% -12.7% -5.87% $796.8M /ctkb-vs-naut →
PACB
Pacific Biosciences of California Inc.
D 44/100 — 28.6% -35.0% -9.98% $809.7M /pacb-vs-naut →
QTRX
Quanterix Corporation
E 22/100 — 46.8% -35.0% -3.27% $137.4M /qtrx-vs-naut →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001808805 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Nautilus Biotechnology Inc. (NAUT) reported GAAP revenue of $80.3M (-21.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $102.0M , and -72.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$59.0M, operating cash flow of -$50.7M, and free cash flow of -$52.0M (+15.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, NAUT closed FY2025 with $191.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $80.3M -$59.0M -$50.7M -$52.0M $191.1M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $102.0M -$70.8M -$59.1M -$61.3M $242.7M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $286.5M -$63.7M -$51.7M -$51.7M — —

3. NAUT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NAUT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Nautilus Biotechnology Inc. (NASDAQ: NAUT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $2.34 (-14.47% 1D, market cap $347.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, NAUT ranks #407 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NAUT compare to LAB and CTKB in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Laboratory Analytical Instruments), NAUT carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, LAB (Standard BioTools Inc.) holds a E grade (27/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -28.7%, cap $240.7M) and CTKB (Cytek Biosciences Inc.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.7%, cap $796.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NAUT leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while CTKB leads on capital efficiency (-12.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NAUT?

Per NAUT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001808805), Nautilus Biotechnology Inc. generated $80.3M in revenue (-21.3% YoY), -$59.0M in net income, and -$52.0M in free cash flow against $191.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NAUT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NAUT last traded at $2.34 (-14.47% on volume of 7,309,062 shares), positioning the stock +40.12% above its 50-day simple moving average ($1.67) and +9.86% above its 200-day simple moving average ($2.13). Across its 52-week range of $0.84 to $4.31, NAUT sits at the 43.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.05 to $2.63).

Direct Sub-Reports: NAUT RQD Cockpit NAUT 12M Forecast NAUT Earnings & Move NAUT Dividends & DRIP NAUT Insiders & 13F NAUT Whale Options NAUT Profit Sankey NAUT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 43/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NAUT — Nautilus Biotechnology Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Nautilus Biotechnology Inc. (NAUT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 43/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $2.34 (-14.47% 1D, market capitalization $347.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of -12.99%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Nautilus Biotechnology Inc. (NAUT) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating within the Biotechnology: Laboratory Analytical Instruments industry. The market capitalization is $0.4B. Reported revenue is — in each period provided.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Nautilus Biotechnology Inc. (NAUT) reported $80.3M in annual revenue (up from $102.0M in FY2024, -21.3% YoY) and -$59.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($286.5M revenue, -$63.7M net income) through FY2025, NAUT scaled operating cash flow to -$50.7M and free cash flow to -$52.0M, backed by $191.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 43/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -12.99% and institutional whale pillar of 14/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.84 – $4.31 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Laboratory Analytical Instruments (Health Care), NAUT carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can NAUT sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Laboratory Analytical Instruments peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $80.3M and free cash flow of -$52.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is NAUT's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NAUT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Nautilus Biotechnology Inc. (NAUT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NAUT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NAUT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.34?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NAUT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NAUT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.55 (+30.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional accumulation and options positioning (14/20 whale flow pillar) show market interest despite negative cash flow.

Here is why I am bullish on NAUT here at $2.73: Institutional accumulation and options positioning (14/20 whale flow pillar) show market interest despite negative cash flow.. Compare NAUT's 0.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against the rest of Biotechnology: Laboratory Analytical Instruments. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $2.59 are getting bought.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@TapeReader_Pro Agree on the RQD 43/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $2.73 and keeping dry powder in case we test $2.54.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.16 (-20.9%)
Spot @ $2.73

Reported revenue is $0.0M across all periods while net losses of -$59.0M to -$70.8M and FCF of -$52.0M persist, with ROIC at -35%.

Reported revenue is $0.0M across all periods while net losses of -$59.0M to -$70.8M and FCF of -$52.0M persist, with ROIC at -35%.. Look at the math on NAUT: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -35.0% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Biotechnology: Laboratory Analytical Instruments demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $2.40 before getting long.

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