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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / NCLH
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Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$17.94 +2.11% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.97

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $8.07B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NCLH Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NCLH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: NCLH) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $17.94 (+2.11% 1D, market cap $8.07B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, NCLH ranks #750 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NCLH compare to KEX and MATX in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
▼

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Marine Transportation), NCLH carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 19.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.7%. By comparison, KEX (Kirby Corporation) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 21.7x, ROIC 9.3%, cap $7.60B) and MATX (Matson Inc.) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 15.3x, ROIC 13.5%, cap $6.69B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MATX leads on earnings multiple (15.3x) while MATX leads on capital efficiency (13.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NCLH?
▼

Per NCLH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001513761), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. generated $4.37B in revenue (+6.5% YoY), $423.2M in net income, and -$1.17B in free cash flow against $22.54B in total assets and $9.15B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.97 (+0.19%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510038
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D · Rk E
Cash (6)Whales (13)SEC (8)Macro (3)CEO (8)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9% Base Target
$26 Bull$16 Base$13 Bear
📬 FREE NCLH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NCLH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (38/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NCLH SCORES 38/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (34% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10.9% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.45 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (62.2) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
30
Grade E$14.87+4.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
33
Grade E$15.59+3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
35
Grade E$16.06+11.7% Next Q
Current
38
Grade D-$17.94-7.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (30) → D- (38)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NCLH Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NCLH currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($15.44) and Max Pain ($18.84) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $26.39.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NCLH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NCLH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 38%NO 62%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM
62.230 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)
0.45>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
4 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE37% OF RANGE
L: $14$17.94H: $25
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 6 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: ERQD 11 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning on NCLH

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (30)

11.7% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -13.98% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (40)

Altman-Z 0.45 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (40)

21/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 3/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like NCLH
  • ✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NCLH)

  • ✓Walkthrough of NCLH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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NCLH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.30%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $18.22H $18.22L $17.57C $17.94VOL 28.32M
RES: $18.30SUP: $11.20SMA50: $15.44SMA200: $18.64
$22.66$20.21$17.77$15.32$12.87RES $18.30SUP $11.20$17.942026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NCLH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NCLH Butterfly Map → + Track NCLH →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
13.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NCLH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NCLH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NCLH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NCLH)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #750 of 1009 ⚔️ KEX vs NCLH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (NCLH vs. KEX, MATX, INSW, CMBT)

Industry: Marine Transportation (67 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) ranks #750 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #192 by equity capitalization ($8.07B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MATX leads on earnings valuation at 15.3x trailing P/E, while MATX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.5% ROIC and — gross margin. INSW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 79/100 (B+) compared with NCLH at 38/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NCLH ACTIVE
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
D- 38/100 19.8x — 11.7% +2.11% $8.07B Benchmark Subject
KEX
Kirby Corporation
B 73/100 21.7x — 9.3% -2.29% $7.60B /kex-vs-nclh →
MATX
Matson Inc.
C+ 69/100 15.3x — 13.5% -1.25% $6.69B /matx-vs-nclh →
INSW
International Seaways Inc.
B+ 79/100 18.8x — 11.2% -5.60% $5.73B /insw-vs-nclh →
CMBT
CMB.TECH NV
D+ 58/100 — — — -5.65% $5.34B /cmbt-vs-nclh →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001513761 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) reported GAAP revenue of $4.37B (+6.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.10B , and +67.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $423.2M, operating cash flow of $2.09B, and free cash flow of -$1.17B (-239.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, NCLH closed FY2025 with $22.54B in total assets against $9.15B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.45, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $4.37B $423.2M $2.09B -$1.17B $22.54B $9.15B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $4.10B $910.3M $2.05B $838.9M $19.97B $8.34B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.61B $166.2M $2.01B $2.01B $4.60B $1.08B

3. NCLH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NCLH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: NCLH) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $17.94 (+2.11% 1D, market cap $8.07B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, NCLH ranks #750 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NCLH compare to KEX and MATX in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Marine Transportation), NCLH carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 19.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.7%. By comparison, KEX (Kirby Corporation) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 21.7x, ROIC 9.3%, cap $7.60B) and MATX (Matson Inc.) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 15.3x, ROIC 13.5%, cap $6.69B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MATX leads on earnings multiple (15.3x) while MATX leads on capital efficiency (13.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NCLH?

Per NCLH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001513761), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. generated $4.37B in revenue (+6.5% YoY), $423.2M in net income, and -$1.17B in free cash flow against $22.54B in total assets and $9.15B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NCLH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NCLH last traded at $17.94 (+2.11% on volume of 27,096,470 shares), positioning the stock +16.19% above its 50-day simple moving average ($15.44) and -3.76% below its 200-day simple moving average ($18.64). Across its 52-week range of $13.63 to $25.13, NCLH sits at the 37.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 62.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.9% ($15.98 to $19.90).

Direct Sub-Reports: NCLH RQD Cockpit NCLH 12M Forecast NCLH Earnings & Move NCLH Dividends & DRIP NCLH Insiders & 13F NCLH Whale Options NCLH Profit Sankey NCLH News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 38/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NCLH — Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 38/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $17.94 (+2.11% 1D, market capitalization $8.07B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11.7%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 66.6%, and free cash flow yield of -13.98%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (8/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.07x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.45, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of 3.86x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and Marine Transportation industry (per the company profile). — for further business detail.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) reported $4.37B in annual revenue (up from $4.10B in FY2024, +6.5% YoY) and $423.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.61B revenue, $166.2M net income) through FY2025, NCLH scaled operating cash flow to $2.09B and free cash flow to -$1.17B, backed by $22.54B in total assets against $9.15B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 38/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -13.98% and institutional whale pillar of 13/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $13.63 – $25.13 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 19.8x trailing P/E and 3.9x EV/EBITDA against 66.6% operating margins and a 1.07x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Supply_chain is NONE, butterfly_links is empty, and proprietary_signals is empty. The only sector-level context is the Marine Transportation classification and the peer-movement reference in one news headline.

  • Key Question #1: Can NCLH sustain or expand its 66.6% operating margin and 11.7% ROIC against Marine Transportation peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $4.37B and free cash flow of -$1.17B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $9.15B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is NCLH's 18.4x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.07x)?

NCLH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NCLH Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NCLH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $17.94?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NCLH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NCLH:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $22.49 (+28.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Whale 13F Flow scores 14 of 20, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning, and the stock is up 13.45% on the day.

Picked up a starter position in NCLH in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $17.57. Whale 13F Flow scores 14 of 20, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning, and the stock is up 13.45% on the day.. Trading inside a $13.63–$25.13 52-week range with -13.98% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Marine Transportation multiples expand this quarter.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — NCLH's 8/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $13.70 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $17.57

Free cash flow is -$1.17B in FY 2025 with an FCF yield of -13.98%, alongside an Altman Z-Score of 0.45 and Debt/Equity of 3.86.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on NCLH: Free cash flow is -$1.17B in FY 2025 with an FCF yield of -13.98%, alongside an Altman Z-Score of 0.45 and Debt/Equity of 3.86.. At 19.8x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Marine Transportation triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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