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Stock Ratings / Health Care / NERV
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Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NERV) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$2.35 +1.08% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.35

Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NERV) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 31/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $112.0M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NERV Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NERV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NASDAQ: NERV) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $2.35 (+1.08% 1D, market cap $112.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, NERV ranks #762 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NERV compare to HURA and NKTX in the Health Care sector?
▼

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), NERV carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, HURA (TuHURA Biosciences Inc.) holds a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $109.6M) and NKTX (Nkarta Inc.) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $108.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NERV leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NERV leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NERV?
▼

Per NERV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001598646), Minerva Neurosciences Inc generated $42.3M in revenue (-30.9% YoY), -$293.4M in net income, and -$13.5M in free cash flow against $98.0M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.35 (+0.00%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (31/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510031
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (9)Whales (3)SEC (10)Macro (6)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-12.3% Base Target
$9 Bull$2 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE NERV RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NERV)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (31/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NERV SCORES 31/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (32% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
23
Grade E$2.35+1.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
26
Grade E$2.39-7.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
28
Grade E$2.21+6.3% Next Q
Current
31
Grade E$2.35-9.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (23) → E (31)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NERV Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NERV currently carries a cautious 31/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.34) and Max Pain ($2.47) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.24.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NERV• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NERV Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 31%NO 69%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
36.330 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
2 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE6% OF RANGE
L: $2$2.35H: $9
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 6 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 16 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning on NERV

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (45)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -12.63% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (20)

6/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 6/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like NERV
  • ✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NERV)

  • ✓Walkthrough of NERV's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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NERV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -62.40%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-04O $2.32H $2.35L $2.32C $2.35VOL 230.6K
RES: $5.37SUP: $1.87SMA50: $3.34SMA200: $4.87
$6.85$5.52$4.20$2.87$1.55RES $5.37SUP $1.87$2.352026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NERV Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NERV Butterfly Map → + Track NERV →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -30.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NERV today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NERV. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NERV today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NERV)

Health Care Rank #762 of 1015 ⚔️ HURA vs NERV Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (NERV vs. HURA, NKTX, EQ, CATX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NERV) ranks #762 by composite RQD confidence (31/100, grade E) and #630 by equity capitalization ($112.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NERV leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while NERV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CATX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 33/100 (E) compared with NERV at 31/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NERV ACTIVE
Minerva Neurosciences Inc
E 31/100 — — -35.0% +1.08% $112.0M Benchmark Subject
HURA
TuHURA Biosciences Inc.
E 32/100 — — -35.0% -10.88% $109.6M /hura-vs-nerv →
NKTX
Nkarta Inc.
E 26/100 — — -35.0% -2.56% $108.9M /nktx-vs-nerv →
EQ
Equillium Inc.
E 31/100 — — -35.0% +0.73% $108.1M /eq-vs-nerv →
CATX
Perspective Therapeutics Inc.
E 33/100 — — -35.0% -9.56% $118.7M /catx-vs-nerv →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001598646 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NERV) reported GAAP revenue of $42.3M (-30.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $61.2M , and -34.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$293.4M, operating cash flow of -$13.5M, and free cash flow of -$13.5M (+30.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, NERV closed FY2025 with $98.0M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $42.3M -$293.4M -$13.5M -$13.5M $98.0M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $61.2M $1.4M -$19.6M -$19.6M $37.1M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $64.7M -$30.0M -$14.8M -$14.8M — —

3. NERV Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NERV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NASDAQ: NERV) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $2.35 (+1.08% 1D, market cap $112.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, NERV ranks #762 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NERV compare to HURA and NKTX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), NERV carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, HURA (TuHURA Biosciences Inc.) holds a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $109.6M) and NKTX (Nkarta Inc.) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $108.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NERV leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NERV leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NERV?

Per NERV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001598646), Minerva Neurosciences Inc generated $42.3M in revenue (-30.9% YoY), -$293.4M in net income, and -$13.5M in free cash flow against $98.0M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NERV trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NERV last traded at $2.35 (+1.08% on volume of 230,604 shares), positioning the stock -29.64% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.34) and -51.75% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.87). Across its 52-week range of $1.96 to $8.80, NERV sits at the 5.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.06 to $2.64).

Direct Sub-Reports: NERV RQD Cockpit NERV 12M Forecast NERV Earnings & Move NERV Dividends & DRIP NERV Insiders & 13F NERV Whale Options NERV Profit Sankey NERV News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 31/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NERV — Minerva Neurosciences Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NERV) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 31/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $2.35 (+1.08% 1D, market capitalization $112.0M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of -12.63%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NERV) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry..1B. Per the FY 2025 financials, reported revenue is —.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NERV) reported $42.3M in annual revenue (up from $61.2M in FY2024, -30.9% YoY) and -$293.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($64.7M revenue, -$30.0M net income) through FY2025, NERV scaled operating cash flow to -$13.5M and free cash flow to -$13.5M, backed by $98.0M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 31/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -12.63% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.96 – $8.80 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— for upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or 2nd-order bottlenecks beyond the sector and industry classification already noted.

  • Key Question #1: Can NERV sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $42.3M and free cash flow of -$13.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is NERV's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NERV Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NERV) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NERV Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NERV Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.35?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NERV 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NERV:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.81 (+21.1%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Cash rose to $82.3M at FY 2025 from $21.4M at FY 2024, giving the balance sheet a larger cushion.

Cash rose to $82.3M at FY 2025 from $21.4M at FY 2024, giving the balance sheet a larger cushion.. When you look under the hood at NERV, Fundamental Cash Engine is 9/20 with 0.0% gross margins and -35.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (3/20) has been quietly accumulating below $8.80. My 12M target is $2.81.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — NERV's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.90 (-18.1%)
Spot @ $2.32

ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -12.63% show the business is not currently generating returns or cash flow.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on NERV: ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -12.63% show the business is not currently generating returns or cash flow.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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