How profitable is Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NERV)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), NERV converted $42.3M of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Health Care / NERV / financials

HURA (32) NKTX (26) EQ (31) CATX (33) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NERV) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$2.35 +1.08% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.35

Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NERV) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 31/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $112.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NERV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NASDAQ: NERV) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $2.35 (+1.08% 1D, market cap $112.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, NERV ranks #762 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NERV compare to HURA and NKTX in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), NERV carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, HURA (TuHURA Biosciences Inc.) holds a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $109.6M) and NKTX (Nkarta Inc.) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $108.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NERV leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NERV leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NERV?

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Per NERV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001598646), Minerva Neurosciences Inc generated $42.3M in revenue (-30.9% YoY), -$293.4M in net income, and -$13.5M in free cash flow against $98.0M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.35 (+0.00%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (31/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-12.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NERV)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (31/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NERV SCORES 31/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (32% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$2.35+1.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$2.39-7.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$2.21+6.3% Next Q

Current

Grade E$2.35-9.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (23) → E (31)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NERV Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NERV currently carries a cautious 31/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.34) and Max Pain ($2.47) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.24.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NERV• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NERV Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 31%NO 69%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How NERV Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $64.7M

FY24

Rev $61.2M

FY25

Rev $42.3M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$42.3M	52%	-35.7%	-$293.4M	-$13.5M	-45%
FY 2024	$61.2M	52%	-35.7%	$1.4M	-$19.6M	-45%
FY 2023	$64.7M	52%	-35.7%	-$30.0M	-$14.8M	-35%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NERV)

✓Walkthrough of NERV's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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NERV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -62.40%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-04O $2.32H $2.35L $2.32C $2.35VOL 230.6K

RES: $5.37SUP: $1.87SMA50: $3.34SMA200: $4.87

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NERV Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NERV Butterfly Map → + Track NERV →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -30.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NERV today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NERV. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NERV today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NERV)

Health Care Rank #762 of 1015 ⚔️ HURA vs NERV Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (NERV vs. HURA, NKTX, EQ, CATX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NERV) ranks #762 by composite RQD confidence (31/100, grade E) and #630 by equity capitalization ($112.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NERV leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while NERV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CATX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 33/100 (E) compared with NERV at 31/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NERV ACTIVE Minerva Neurosciences Inc	E	31/100	—	—	-35.0%	+1.08%	$112.0M	Benchmark Subject
HURA TuHURA Biosciences Inc.	E	32/100	—	—	-35.0%	-10.88%	$109.6M	/hura-vs-nerv →
NKTX Nkarta Inc.	E	26/100	—	—	-35.0%	-2.56%	$108.9M	/nktx-vs-nerv →
EQ Equillium Inc.	E	31/100	—	—	-35.0%	+0.73%	$108.1M	/eq-vs-nerv →
CATX Perspective Therapeutics Inc.	E	33/100	—	—	-35.0%	-9.56%	$118.7M	/catx-vs-nerv →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001598646 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NERV) reported GAAP revenue of $42.3M (-30.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $61.2M , and -34.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$293.4M, operating cash flow of -$13.5M, and free cash flow of -$13.5M (+30.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, NERV closed FY2025 with $98.0M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$42.3M	-$293.4M	-$13.5M	-$13.5M	$98.0M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$61.2M	$1.4M	-$19.6M	-$19.6M	$37.1M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$64.7M	-$30.0M	-$14.8M	-$14.8M	—	—

3. NERV Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NERV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does NERV compare to HURA and NKTX in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NERV?

Where is NERV trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NERV last traded at $2.35 (+1.08% on volume of 230,604 shares), positioning the stock -29.64% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.34) and -51.75% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.87). Across its 52-week range of $1.96 to $8.80, NERV sits at the 5.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.06 to $2.64).

Direct Sub-Reports: NERV RQD Cockpit NERV 12M Forecast NERV Earnings & Move NERV Dividends & DRIP NERV Insiders & 13F NERV Whale Options NERV Profit Sankey NERV News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 31/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NERV — Minerva Neurosciences Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NERV) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 31/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $2.35 (+1.08% 1D, market capitalization $112.0M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of -12.63%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NERV) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry..1B. Per the FY 2025 financials, reported revenue is —.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NERV) reported $42.3M in annual revenue (up from $61.2M in FY2024, -30.9% YoY) and -$293.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($64.7M revenue, -$30.0M net income) through FY2025, NERV scaled operating cash flow to -$13.5M and free cash flow to -$13.5M, backed by $98.0M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 31/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -12.63% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.96 – $8.80 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— for upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or 2nd-order bottlenecks beyond the sector and industry classification already noted.

Key Question #1: Can NERV sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $42.3M and free cash flow of -$13.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is NERV's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NERV Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NERV) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 1d ago

Minerva Neurosciences, Inc. (NERV) Seasonal Returns Chart

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NERV) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Barron's • 1d ago

Minerva Neurosciences Inc. Research & Ratings | NERV

Barron's report covering Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NERV) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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Stock Titan report covering Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NERV) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 2d ago

Minerva Neurosciences to Participate in 2026 Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference in London

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 2d ago

A live webcast will carry Minerva's Nov. 16 talk from London.

Stock Titan report covering Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NERV) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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Minerva Neurosciences (NERV) Holds Near $2.40 as Traders Eye Resistance - Institutional Volume

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Minerva (NERV) Advances +9.05% as Buying Pressure Builds 2026-10-21 - Sector Sentiment

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NERV Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.35?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NERV 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.81 (+21.1%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Cash rose to $82.3M at FY 2025 from $21.4M at FY 2024, giving the balance sheet a larger cushion.

Cash rose to $82.3M at FY 2025 from $21.4M at FY 2024, giving the balance sheet a larger cushion.. When you look under the hood at NERV, Fundamental Cash Engine is 9/20 with 0.0% gross margins and -35.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (3/20) has been quietly accumulating below $8.80. My 12M target is $2.81.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — NERV's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.90 (-18.1%)

Spot @ $2.32

ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -12.63% show the business is not currently generating returns or cash flow.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on NERV: ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -12.63% show the business is not currently generating returns or cash flow.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations triggers a 12-15% air pocket.