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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / TPVG
FC (52) ABLV (66) WW (45) KLC (24) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$4.60 +1.55% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.60

TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $184.4M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TPVG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TPVG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (NYSE: TPVG) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $4.60 (+1.55% 1D, market cap $184.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TPVG ranks #726 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TPVG compare to FC and ABLV in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
▼

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Other Consumer Services), TPVG carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 3.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.9%. By comparison, FC (Franklin Covey Company) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 68.0x, ROIC 12.4%, cap $204.4M) and ABLV (Able View Global Inc. (Class B)) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.5%, cap $155.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TPVG leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while WW leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TPVG?
▼

Per TPVG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001580345), TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. generated $352.7M in revenue (+10.0% YoY), $49.2M in net income, and -$57.0M in free cash flow against $839.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.60 (+0.09%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510040
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk D-
Cash (8)Whales (5)SEC (10)Macro (6)CEO (11)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8% Base Target
$7 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE TPVG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TPVG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TPVG SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+11/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 55% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
32
Grade E$4.48-4.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
35
Grade E$4.29+1.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
37
Grade E$4.36+5.5% Next Q
Current
40
Grade D-$4.60-7.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (32) → D- (40)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TPVG Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TPVG currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.83) and Max Pain ($4.83) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $7.30.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TPVG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TPVG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 40%NO 60%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
47.130 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
2 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE16% OF RANGE
L: $4$4.60H: $7
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 8 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 16 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 16 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning on TPVG

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (40)

13.9% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (37)

16/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 6/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like TPVG
  • ✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TPVG)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TPVG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TPVG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -18.00%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $4.55H $4.60L $4.53C $4.60VOL 155.5K
RES: $5.26SUP: $4.12SMA50: $4.83SMA200: $5.18
$6.16$5.62$5.07$4.53$3.98RES $5.26SUP $4.12$4.602026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TPVG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TPVG Butterfly Map → + Track TPVG →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-15.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +10.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TPVG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TPVG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TPVG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TPVG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #726 of 1009 ⚔️ FC vs TPVG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TPVG vs. FC, ABLV, WW, KLC)

Industry: Other Consumer Services (73 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG) ranks #726 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #699 by equity capitalization ($184.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TPVG leads on earnings valuation at 3.8x trailing P/E, while WW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. ABLV currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with TPVG at 40/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TPVG ACTIVE
TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp.
D- 40/100 3.8x — 13.9% +1.55% $184.4M Benchmark Subject
FC
Franklin Covey Company
D+ 52/100 68.0x 76.2% 12.4% -4.14% $204.4M /fc-vs-tpvg →
ABLV
Able View Global Inc. (Class B)
C+ 66/100 — 11.3% -5.5% -8.18% $155.2M /ablv-vs-tpvg →
WW
WW International Inc.
D 45/100 — — 85.0% -10.13% $149.0M /ww-vs-tpvg →
KLC
KinderCare Learning Companies Inc.
E 24/100 — — -1.0% +0.99% $240.6M /klc-vs-tpvg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001580345 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG) reported GAAP revenue of $352.7M (+10.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $320.5M , and -12.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $49.2M, operating cash flow of -$57.0M, and free cash flow of -$57.0M (-137.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, TPVG closed FY2025 with $839.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $352.7M $49.2M -$57.0M -$57.0M $839.6M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $320.5M $32.0M $152.9M $152.9M $763.0M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $403.4M -$39.8M $106.1M $106.1M — —

3. TPVG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TPVG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (NYSE: TPVG) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $4.60 (+1.55% 1D, market cap $184.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TPVG ranks #726 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TPVG compare to FC and ABLV in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Other Consumer Services), TPVG carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 3.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.9%. By comparison, FC (Franklin Covey Company) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 68.0x, ROIC 12.4%, cap $204.4M) and ABLV (Able View Global Inc. (Class B)) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.5%, cap $155.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TPVG leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while WW leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TPVG?

Per TPVG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001580345), TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. generated $352.7M in revenue (+10.0% YoY), $49.2M in net income, and -$57.0M in free cash flow against $839.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TPVG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TPVG last traded at $4.60 (+1.55% on volume of 266,056 shares), positioning the stock -4.76% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.83) and -11.20% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.18). Across its 52-week range of $4.15 to $6.95, TPVG sits at the 16.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.3% ($4.31 to $4.89).

Direct Sub-Reports: TPVG RQD Cockpit TPVG 12M Forecast TPVG Earnings & Move TPVG Dividends & DRIP TPVG Insiders & 13F TPVG Whale Options TPVG Profit Sankey TPVG News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 40/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TPVG — TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 40/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $4.60 (+1.55% 1D, market capitalization $184.4M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 13.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (11/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. (TPVG) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Other Consumer Services industry. The profile states the company has a market capitalization of $0.2B. — The products or services sold, the customer base, and the specific revenue model are not described in the source data beyond the sector and industry classification.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG) reported $352.7M in annual revenue (up from $320.5M in FY2024, +10.0% YoY) and $49.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($403.4M revenue, -$39.8M net income) through FY2025, TPVG scaled operating cash flow to -$57.0M and free cash flow to -$57.0M, backed by $839.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 40/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $4.15 – $6.95 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 3.8x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Other Consumer Services (Consumer Discretionary), TPVG carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can TPVG sustain or expand its — operating margin and 13.9% ROIC against Other Consumer Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $352.7M and free cash flow of -$57.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TPVG's 3.5x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TPVG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TPVG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TPVG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.60?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TPVG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TPVG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $5.30 (+17.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

ROIC of 13.9% and a P/E of 3.8 (TTM) sit alongside a $0.23 declared quarterly distribution and an expected earnings beat.

The street is overcomplicating TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG). ROIC of 13.9% and a P/E of 3.8 (TTM) sit alongside a $0.23 declared quarterly distribution and an expected earnings beat.. With an RQD score of 40/100 (D-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $4.89.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@FadeTheHype Shorting a 5/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $4.53 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.81 (-15.9%)
Spot @ $4.53

A 0% FCF yield, -$57.0M FY 2025 free cash flow, and a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicate weak cash generation and a vulnerable balance s

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short TPVG above $4.53. A 0% FCF yield, -$57.0M FY 2025 free cash flow, and a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicate weak cash generation and a vulnerable balance sheet.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20) and FCF yield (0.0%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $6.95.

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