ROARABLE
FREE $100K
My Trading Account →
▾
Trading Profile Active
Active Trader
Verified Trader
⚡ My $100K Trading Account → ★ My Saved Watchlist →
🟢 My $100K Account → Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Financials / TWFG
STC (57) GSHD (59) OIG (51) LIFE (70) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

TWFG Inc. (Class A) (TWFG) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$28.60 +6.08% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.86

TWFG Inc. (Class A) (TWFG) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.46B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TWFG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TWFG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, TWFG Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: TWFG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $28.60 (+6.08% 1D, market cap $1.46B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, TWFG ranks #156 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TWFG compare to STC and GSHD in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), TWFG carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 39.8%. By comparison, STC (Stewart Information Services Corporation) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 5.6%, cap $1.36B) and GSHD (Goosehead Insurance Inc. (Class A)) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 60.7x, ROIC 36.9%, cap $1.69B). Among the 5-stock peer group, STC leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while LIFE leads on capital efficiency (40.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TWFG?
▼

Per TWFG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002007596), TWFG Inc. (Class A) generated $248.5M in revenue (+22.0% YoY), $0 in net income, and $53.1M in free cash flow against $372.3M in total assets and $2.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.86 (+0.90%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 21.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510068
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B · Rk D+
Cash (18)Whales (12)SEC (10)Macro (13)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target
$35 Bull$30 Base$23 Bear
📬 FREE TWFG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TWFG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TWFG SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 21.4% FCF Margin ($53.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 10 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
60
Grade C$24.26+6.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
63
Grade C+$25.74+5.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
65
Grade C+$27.25+5% Next Q
Current
68
Grade C+$28.60+1.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TWFG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, TWFG faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($26.64) or 200D SMA ($23.11) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($29.89) toward Bear Floor ($23.31).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TWFG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TWFG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 68%NO 32%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
53.730 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
4 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE82% OF RANGE
L: $17$28.60H: $31
1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: ARQD 18 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish on TWFG

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BULLISH (90)

39.8% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 3.62% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BULLISH (67)

27/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like TWFG
  • ✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TWFG Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
TWFG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +53.43%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $27.15H $28.60L $26.96C $28.60VOL 227.1K
RES: $28.96SUP: $22.71SMA50: $26.64SMA200: $23.11
$32.27$28.25$24.23$20.21$16.19RES $28.96SUP $22.71$28.602026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TWFG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TWFG Butterfly Map → + Track TWFG →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
32.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +22.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TWFG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TWFG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TWFG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TWFG)

Financials Rank #156 of 1097 ⚔️ STC vs TWFG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TWFG vs. STC, GSHD, OIG, LIFE)

Industry: Specialty Insurers (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TWFG Inc. (Class A) (TWFG) ranks #156 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #495 by equity capitalization ($1.46B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, STC leads on earnings valuation at 12.0x trailing P/E, while LIFE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 40.6% ROIC and — gross margin. LIFE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with TWFG at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TWFG ACTIVE
TWFG Inc. (Class A)
C+ 68/100 — — 39.8% +6.08% $1.46B Benchmark Subject
STC
Stewart Information Services Corporation
D+ 57/100 12.0x — 5.6% +2.76% $1.36B /stc-vs-twfg →
GSHD
Goosehead Insurance Inc. (Class A)
C- 59/100 60.7x — 36.9% +7.87% $1.69B /gshd-vs-twfg →
OIG
Orion180 Insurance Group Inc. (Class A)
D 51/100 — — — +2.04% $970.5M /oig-vs-twfg →
LIFE
Ethos Technologies Inc. (Class A)
B- 70/100 39.8x — 40.6% -1.77% $2.82B /life-vs-twfg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002007596 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TWFG Inc. (Class A) (TWFG) reported GAAP revenue of $248.5M (+22.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $203.8M , and +44.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $53.5M, and free cash flow of $53.1M (+42.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, TWFG closed FY2025 with $372.3M in total assets against $2.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $248.5M $0 $53.5M $53.1M $372.3M $2.0M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $203.8M $2.7M $40.5M $37.3M $323.4M $4.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $172.0M $0 $30.2M $30.2M — —

3. TWFG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TWFG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, TWFG Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: TWFG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $28.60 (+6.08% 1D, market cap $1.46B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, TWFG ranks #156 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TWFG compare to STC and GSHD in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), TWFG carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 39.8%. By comparison, STC (Stewart Information Services Corporation) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 5.6%, cap $1.36B) and GSHD (Goosehead Insurance Inc. (Class A)) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 60.7x, ROIC 36.9%, cap $1.69B). Among the 5-stock peer group, STC leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while LIFE leads on capital efficiency (40.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TWFG?

Per TWFG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002007596), TWFG Inc. (Class A) generated $248.5M in revenue (+22.0% YoY), $0 in net income, and $53.1M in free cash flow against $372.3M in total assets and $2.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TWFG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TWFG last traded at $28.60 (+6.08% on volume of 136,562 shares), positioning the stock +7.36% above its 50-day simple moving average ($26.64) and +23.76% above its 200-day simple moving average ($23.11). Across its 52-week range of $16.56 to $31.30, TWFG sits at the 81.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.0% ($26.03 to $31.17).

Direct Sub-Reports: TWFG RQD Cockpit TWFG 12M Forecast TWFG Earnings & Move TWFG Dividends & DRIP TWFG Insiders & 13F TWFG Whale Options TWFG Profit Sankey TWFG News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 68/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TWFG — TWFG Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

TWFG Inc. (Class A) (TWFG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 68/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $28.60 (+6.08% 1D, market capitalization $1.46B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (18/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 39.8%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 14.9%, and free cash flow yield of 3.62%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. (Class A) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating within the Specialty Insurers industry. — describes its specific products, customer base, or revenue model. The source data reports a market capitalization of $1.5B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), TWFG Inc. (Class A) (TWFG) reported $248.5M in annual revenue (up from $203.8M in FY2024, +22.0% YoY) and $0 in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($172.0M revenue, $0 net income) through FY2025, TWFG scaled operating cash flow to $53.5M and free cash flow to $53.1M, backed by $372.3M in total assets against $2.0M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 68/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 18/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $16.56 – $31.30 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Investors must weigh current valuation and 35.2x EV/EBITDA against 14.9% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies, butterfly links, or proprietary signals are mapped for TWFG. For a prospective investor, the practical 2nd-order watch item is the Q3 2026 earnings release, since the source data contains no supply-chain linkages through which other events could transmit to the company.

  • Key Question #1: Can TWFG sustain or expand its 14.9% operating margin and 39.8% ROIC against Specialty Insurers peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $248.5M and free cash flow of $53.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $2.0M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TWFG's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TWFG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for TWFG Inc. (Class A) (TWFG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TWFG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔴 RISK WATCH StocksToTrade • 2d ago
TWFG Inc. Falls 7%

StocksToTrade report covering TWFG Inc. (Class A) (TWFG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TWFG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $28.60?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TWFG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TWFG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $32.35 (+20.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Strong capital efficiency, with ROIC of 39.8% and an FCF yield of 3.62%, anchors the fundamental cash engine pillar at 18 of 20.

Long TWFG at $26.96 targeting $32.35. Strong capital efficiency, with ROIC of 39.8% and an FCF yield of 3.62%, anchors the fundamental cash engine pillar at 18 of 20.. Institutional whale score is 12/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $16.56 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — TWFG's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $21.84 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $26.96

Weakest pillar is the forensic balance sheet at 10 of 20, with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and an EV/EBITDA of 35.2.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short TWFG above $26.96. Weakest pillar is the forensic balance sheet at 10 of 20, with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and an EV/EBITDA of 35.2.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (18/20) and FCF yield (3.62%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $31.30.

LIVE TAPE