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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ULTA
JD (30) DKS (55) FCFS (57) BBWI (81) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$637.57 -0.45% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $638.58

Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) earns a Roarable Rating of A- (Buy) with 84/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (39.1% gross margin, 29% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE A- • STRONG BUY Cap $27.38B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ULTA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ULTA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Ulta Beauty Inc. (NASDAQ: ULTA) is rated A- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 84/100 at a spot price of $637.57 (-0.45% 1D, market cap $27.38B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ULTA ranks #4 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ULTA compare to JD and DKS in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
▼

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Other Specialty Stores), ULTA carries a Roarable A- (84/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.0x, gross margin of 39.1%, and ROIC of 29.2%. By comparison, JD (JD.com Inc.) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E 111.2x, ROIC 0.9%, cap $34.51B) and DKS (Dick's Sporting Goods Inc) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 14.9x, ROIC 11.2%, cap $12.79B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BBWI leads on earnings multiple (7.1x) while BBWI leads on capital efficiency (64.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ULTA?
▼

Per ULTA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0001403568), Ulta Beauty Inc. generated $12.39B in revenue (+9.7% YoY), $1.15B in net income, and $1.07B in free cash flow against $7.00B in total assets and $1.89B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (39.1% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $638.59 (+0.16%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 8.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 84/100 (A-) historically ranked in the Top 6% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 72.6% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSTRONG BUY • A-
025507510084
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw A · Rk B
Cash (19)Whales (18)SEC (18)Macro (12)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+11.7% Base Target
$840 Bull$712 Base$523 Bear
📬 FREE ULTA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ULTA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (84/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ULTA SCORES 84/100 (A-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 8.6% FCF Margin ($1.07B FCF) & 39.1% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+18/20 pts (21% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.4% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (65.8) create a -8 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
76
Grade B+$592.42+2.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
79
Grade A-$606.99+2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
81
Grade A-$619.24+3% Next Q
Current
84
Grade A-$637.57+8.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B+ (76) → A- (84)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ULTA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 84/100 (A-) score, ULTA faces multiple-compression risk if 24.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 36.6% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($571.63) or 200D SMA ($552.56) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($712.17) toward Bear Floor ($522.81).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ULTA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ULTA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 30, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 84%NO 16%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM
65.830 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
6.96>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
8 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE71% OF RANGE
L: $444$637.57H: $715
1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (39.1% gross margin and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: A+RQD 19 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: ARQD 35 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: BRQD 30 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish on ULTA

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BULLISH (95)

29.2% ROIC with 39.1% gross margin and 3.85% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (90)

Altman-Z 6.96 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BULLISH (78)

35/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ULTA
  • ✓Strong cash generator (39.1% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
  • ✓Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ULTA Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
ULTA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +23.08%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $648.3H $648.3L $637.6C $637.6VOL 548.2K
RES: $664.2SUP: $577.1SMA50: $571.6SMA200: $552.6
$674.6$612.0$549.4$486.8$424.2RES $664.2SUP $577.1$637.62026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ULTA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ULTA Butterfly Map → + Track ULTA →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
17.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ULTA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ULTA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ULTA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ULTA)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #4 of 1009 ⚔️ JD vs ULTA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ULTA vs. JD, DKS, FCFS, BBWI)

Industry: Other Specialty Stores (42 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) ranks #4 by composite RQD confidence (84/100, grade A-) and #71 by equity capitalization ($27.38B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BBWI leads on earnings valuation at 7.1x trailing P/E, while BBWI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 64.6% ROIC and 43.7% gross margin. ULTA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 84/100 (A-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ULTA ACTIVE
Ulta Beauty Inc.
A- 84/100 24.0x 39.1% 29.2% -0.45% $27.38B Benchmark Subject
JD
JD.com Inc.
E 30/100 111.2x 16.0% 0.9% +2.41% $34.51B /jd-vs-ulta →
DKS
Dick's Sporting Goods Inc
D+ 55/100 14.9x 32.9% 11.2% -1.11% $12.79B /dks-vs-ulta →
FCFS
FirstCash Holdings Inc.
D+ 57/100 24.4x 96.0% 7.3% +6.87% $7.77B /fcfs-vs-ulta →
BBWI
Bath & Body Works Inc.
A- 81/100 7.1x 43.7% 64.6% +1.85% $4.59B /bbwi-vs-ulta →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-31 • CIK 0001403568 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31), Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) reported GAAP revenue of $12.39B (+9.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $11.30B , and +10.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.15B, operating cash flow of $1.50B, and free cash flow of $1.07B (+10.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, ULTA closed FY2025 with $7.00B in total assets against $1.89B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.96, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-01-31 $12.39B $1.15B $1.50B $1.07B $7.00B $1.89B
FY2024 (FY) 2025-02-01 $11.30B $1.20B $1.34B $964.1M $6.00B $1.58B
FY2023 (FY) 2024-02-03 $11.21B $1.29B $1.48B $971.9M $15.25B $3.57B

3. ULTA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ULTA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Ulta Beauty Inc. (NASDAQ: ULTA) is rated A- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 84/100 at a spot price of $637.57 (-0.45% 1D, market cap $27.38B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ULTA ranks #4 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ULTA compare to JD and DKS in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Other Specialty Stores), ULTA carries a Roarable A- (84/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.0x, gross margin of 39.1%, and ROIC of 29.2%. By comparison, JD (JD.com Inc.) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E 111.2x, ROIC 0.9%, cap $34.51B) and DKS (Dick's Sporting Goods Inc) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 14.9x, ROIC 11.2%, cap $12.79B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BBWI leads on earnings multiple (7.1x) while BBWI leads on capital efficiency (64.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ULTA?

Per ULTA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0001403568), Ulta Beauty Inc. generated $12.39B in revenue (+9.7% YoY), $1.15B in net income, and $1.07B in free cash flow against $7.00B in total assets and $1.89B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (39.1% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ULTA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ULTA last traded at $637.57 (-0.45% on volume of 569,462 shares), positioning the stock +11.54% above its 50-day simple moving average ($571.63) and +15.38% above its 200-day simple moving average ($552.56). Across its 52-week range of $443.60 to $714.97, ULTA sits at the 71.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 65.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.4% ($596.77 to $678.37).

Direct Sub-Reports: ULTA RQD Cockpit ULTA 12M Forecast ULTA Earnings & Move ULTA Dividends & DRIP ULTA Insiders & 13F ULTA Whale Options ULTA Profit Sankey ULTA News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 84/100 (A-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ULTA — Ulta Beauty Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-01-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 84/100, corresponding to a A- letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $637.57 (-0.45% 1D, market capitalization $27.38B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (19/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 29.2%, gross margin of 39.1%, operating margin of 12.4%, and free cash flow yield of 3.85%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (18/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 1.10x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 6.96, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.63x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Ulta Beauty Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed company in the Consumer Discretionary sector, within the Other Specialty Stores industry. It operates as a specialty retailer.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-01-31), Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) reported $12.39B in annual revenue (up from $11.30B in FY2024, +9.7% YoY) and $1.15B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($11.21B revenue, $1.29B net income) through FY2025, ULTA scaled operating cash flow to $1.50B and free cash flow to $1.07B, backed by $7.00B in total assets against $1.89B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (A- • RQD 84/100): Strong cash generator (39.1% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 19/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 18/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $443.60 – $714.97 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 24.0x trailing P/E and 15.3x EV/EBITDA against 12.4% operating margins and a 1.10x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Other Specialty Stores (Consumer Discretionary), ULTA carries a macro regime beta of 1.10 and gross margin of 39.1%.

  • Key Question #1: Can ULTA sustain or expand its 12.4% operating margin and 29.2% ROIC against Other Specialty Stores peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $12.39B and free cash flow of $1.07B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.89B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ULTA's 22.3x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.10x)?

ULTA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ULTA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ULTA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $637.57?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ULTA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ULTA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $806.94 (+26.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the RQD rating, the Fundamental Cash Engine scores 19/20 with ROIC of 29.2% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, showing strong cash gen

Long ULTA at $640.43 targeting $806.94. Per the RQD rating, the Fundamental Cash Engine scores 19/20 with ROIC of 29.2% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, showing strong cash generation and balance sheet quality.. Institutional whale score is 18/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $443.60 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@QuantViper Agree on the RQD 84/100 quality, though with 1.1 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $640.43 and keeping dry powder in case we test $595.60.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $480.32 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $640.43

Per the financials, net income declined from $1.29B in FY 2023 to $1.15B in FY 2025 even as revenue grew, while P/E TTM sits at 24.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short ULTA above $640.43. Per the financials, net income declined from $1.29B in FY 2023 to $1.15B in FY 2025 even as revenue grew, while P/E TTM sits at 24.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (19/20) and FCF yield (3.85%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $714.97.

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