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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ULTA / earnings
JD (30) DKS (55) FCFS (58) BBWI (81) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6.6% Move

$640.43 -1.21% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $640.57

Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) earns a Roarable Rating of A- (Buy) with 84/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (39% profit margin, 29% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 84/100 (A-) historically ranked in the Top 6% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 72.6% hit rate) →
ROARABLE A- • STRONG BUY Cap $27.72B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ULTA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ULTA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-02, Ulta Beauty Inc. (NASDAQ: ULTA) is rated A- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 84/100 at a spot price of $640.43 (-1.21% 1D, market cap $27.72B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ULTA ranks #7 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ULTA compare to JD and DKS in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Other Specialty Stores), ULTA carries a Roarable A- (84/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.0x, gross margin of 39.1%, and ROIC of 29.2%. By comparison, JD (JD.com Inc.) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E 111.2x, ROIC 0.9%, cap $34.45B) and DKS (Dick's Sporting Goods Inc) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 14.9x, ROIC 11.2%, cap $12.63B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BBWI leads on earnings multiple (7.1x) while BBWI leads on capital efficiency (64.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ULTA?
▼

Per ULTA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0001403568), Ulta Beauty Inc. generated $12.39B in revenue (+9.7% YoY), $1.15B in net income, and $1.07B in free cash flow against $7.00B in total assets and $1.89B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (39% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $640.56 (+0.02%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 8.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 84/100 (A-) historically ranked in the Top 6% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 72.6% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSTRONG BUY • A-
025507510084
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A · Rk B
Cash (19)Whales (18)SEC (18)Macro (12)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+11.7% Base Target
$844 Bull$715 Base$525 Bear
📬 FREE ULTA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ULTA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (84/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ULTA SCORES 84/100 (A-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 8.6% FCF Margin ($1.07B FCF) & 39.1% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+18/20 pts (21% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.6% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (70.2) create a -8 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
76
Grade B+$579.00+4.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
79
Grade A-$602.90+4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
81
Grade A-$626.88+2.2% Next Q
Current
84
Grade A-$640.43+8.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B+ (76) → A- (84)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ULTA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 84/100 (A-) score, ULTA faces multiple-compression risk if 24.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 36.6% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($569.57) or 200D SMA ($552.74) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($715.36) toward Bear Floor ($525.15).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ULTA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ULTA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 30, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 84%NO 16%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Jan 30, 2027 (~88 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±6.6% Swing Band

±$42.27 Expected Swing
$598.16 (-6.6%)Spot $640.43$682.70 (+6.6%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ULTA Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 84/100

Trailing EPS: $26.97 • YoY Revenue Growth: 9.7%

Model Bullish Setup (84/100)Model Risk Weight (16/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252026-01-31$12.39B$1.15B$1.07B39.1%
FY 20242025-02-01$11.30B$1.20B$964.1M38.8%
FY 20232024-02-03$11.21B$1.29B$971.9M39.1%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating ULTA & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on ULTA
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
ULTA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +23.64%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $619.2H $648.3L $619.2C $640.4VOL 601.5K
RES: $662.6SUP: $575.6SMA50: $569.6SMA200: $552.7
$674.6$612.0$549.4$486.8$424.2RES $662.6SUP $575.6$640.42026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ULTA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ULTA Butterfly Map → + Track ULTA →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
17.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ULTA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ULTA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ULTA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ULTA)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #7 of 1011 ⚔️ JD vs ULTA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ULTA vs. JD, DKS, FCFS, BBWI)

Industry: Other Specialty Stores (42 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) ranks #7 by composite RQD confidence (84/100, grade A-) and #72 by equity capitalization ($27.72B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BBWI leads on earnings valuation at 7.1x trailing P/E, while BBWI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 64.6% ROIC and 43.7% gross margin. ULTA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 84/100 (A-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ULTA ACTIVE
Ulta Beauty Inc.
A- 84/100 24.0x 39.1% 29.2% -1.21% $27.72B Benchmark Subject
JD
JD.com Inc.
E 30/100 111.2x 16.0% 0.9% +0.20% $34.45B /jd-vs-ulta →
DKS
Dick's Sporting Goods Inc
D+ 55/100 14.9x 32.9% 11.2% +1.30% $12.63B /dks-vs-ulta →
FCFS
FirstCash Holdings Inc.
D+ 58/100 24.4x 96.0% 7.3% -3.50% $8.06B /fcfs-vs-ulta →
BBWI
Bath & Body Works Inc.
A- 81/100 7.1x 43.7% 64.6% -0.04% $4.59B /bbwi-vs-ulta →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-31 • CIK 0001403568

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31), Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) reported GAAP revenue of $12.39B (+9.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $11.30B , and +10.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.15B, operating cash flow of $1.50B, and free cash flow of $1.07B (+10.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, ULTA closed FY2025 with $7.00B in total assets against $1.89B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.96, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-01-31 $12.39B $1.15B $1.50B $1.07B $7.00B $1.89B
FY2024 (FY) 2025-02-01 $11.30B $1.20B $1.34B $964.1M $6.00B $1.58B
FY2023 (FY) 2024-02-03 $11.21B $1.29B $1.48B $971.9M $15.25B $3.57B

3. ULTA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ULTA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Ulta Beauty Inc. (NASDAQ: ULTA) is rated A- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 84/100 at a spot price of $640.43 (-1.21% 1D, market cap $27.72B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ULTA ranks #7 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ULTA compare to JD and DKS in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Other Specialty Stores), ULTA carries a Roarable A- (84/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.0x, gross margin of 39.1%, and ROIC of 29.2%. By comparison, JD (JD.com Inc.) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E 111.2x, ROIC 0.9%, cap $34.45B) and DKS (Dick's Sporting Goods Inc) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 14.9x, ROIC 11.2%, cap $12.63B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BBWI leads on earnings multiple (7.1x) while BBWI leads on capital efficiency (64.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ULTA?

Per ULTA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0001403568), Ulta Beauty Inc. generated $12.39B in revenue (+9.7% YoY), $1.15B in net income, and $1.07B in free cash flow against $7.00B in total assets and $1.89B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (39% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ULTA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ULTA last traded at $640.43 (-1.21% on volume of 548,203 shares), positioning the stock +12.44% above its 50-day simple moving average ($569.57) and +15.86% above its 200-day simple moving average ($552.74). Across its 52-week range of $443.60 to $714.97, ULTA sits at the 72.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 70.2 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.6% ($598.16 to $682.70).

ULTA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is ULTA's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Jan 30, 2027.

How much is ULTA stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±6.6% event move for ULTA, spanning a range between $598.16 and $682.7.

Direct Sub-Reports: ULTA RQD Cockpit ULTA 12M Forecast ULTA Earnings & Move ULTA Dividends & DRIP ULTA Insiders & 13F ULTA Whale Options ULTA Profit Sankey ULTA News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 84/100 (A-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ULTA — Ulta Beauty Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:12:39Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ULTA scores 84 out of 100 with a letter grade of A- and a verdict label of "Roarable Buy — Superior Risk/Reward." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20 (ROIC 29.2%; FCF yield 3.85%); Whale 13F Flow 18/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction 17/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit 12/20 (Beta 1.1; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet 18/20 (Altman Z 6.96; Piotroski F 8/9; Debt/Equity 0.63). The strongest pillar is the cash engine, which supports the view that the business converts capital into returns efficiently. The weakest pillar is macro regime fit, which signals that the stock's sensitivity to broader market and sector conditions is the main area where its score is held back. For a prospective investor, the rating points to high-quality fundamentals and a clean balance sheet, while the valuation multiples (P/E TTM of 24) and the modest free-cash-flow yield (3.85%) mean the upside case depends on continued execution rather than a discount to current value. This is an analytical summary, not personalized advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
648.28$27.72B2422.315.326.970%1.1$443.6 - $714.9729.2%

Business

Ulta Beauty Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed company in the Consumer Discretionary sector, within the Other Specialty Stores industry. Per the company profile, it operates as a specialty retailer. Source data does not provide further detail on its product lines, customer base, or revenue model beyond the sector and industry classification and the financial figures below.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

The news feed contains five items, all tagged to ULTA, with no further detail in the source:

  • "Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Beats Stock Market Upswing: What Investors Need to Know" (Yahoo Finance; flagged GREEN, CATALYST).
  • "Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Stock Price, News, Quote & History" (Yahoo! Finance Canada; flagged YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
  • "Ulta Beauty Inc. stock underperforms Friday when compared to competitors" (MarketWatch; flagged YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
  • "If You Invested $1000 In Ulta Beauty Stock 15 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today" (Benzinga; flagged YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
  • "Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Gains As Market Dips: What You Should Know" (Yahoo Finance; flagged GREEN, CATALYST).
  • "Ulta Beauty Inc. stock outperforms competitors despite losses on the day" (MarketWatch; flagged GREEN, CATALYST).

The headlines are mixed in tone: two items are labeled as catalysts with green signals and four are market-wire items with yellow signals, and the articles describe short-term price moves relative to the market and competitors. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as "NONE," with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Risk watch items are not specified in the source beyond the signal labels above.

Open Questions

  • What are the EPS figures for FY 2023 through FY 2025, which are shown as N/A in the financials?
  • What drove the decline in net income from FY 2023 to FY 2025 despite revenue growth, and what is the composition of cash flow reported in the financials?
  • What is the supply-chain and sector dependency map behind the Butterfly graph, given that the source records no links?
  • What do institutional and insider holdings look like in detail, given that the holders section is empty despite the RQD pillar references to whale and insider flow?
  • What is the basis for the beta of 1.1 and the macro regime sensitivity behind the 12/20 pillar score?

ULTA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ULTA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ULTA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $640.43?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ULTA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ULTA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $764.97 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ULTA (A- • RQD 84/100) a Buy at $648.28?

Welcome to the ULTA (Ulta Beauty Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 84/100 (Roarable Buy — Superior Risk/Reward) in Other Specialty Stores. Bulls point to capital efficiency (29.2% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $518.62 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $648.28

Pump the brakes on ULTA — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ULTA, but look at what you are paying: 24.0x trailing P/E with 39.1% gross margins. Unless Ulta Beauty Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $829.80 (+28.0%)
Spot @ $648.28

ULTA cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ULTA, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Other Specialty Stores and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $648.28 (52-wk range $443.60 - $714.97), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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