Should I buy, hold, or sell WTM stock right now?

White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. (WTM) currently earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy — BUY) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 16% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

What is WTM's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

WTM's 12-month base price target is $2442.56 (range $1900.28 to $2882.22), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Financials / WTM

MCY (72) MTG (72) SIGI (74) RLI (80) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. (WTM) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$2,317.42 +2.09% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2,331.70

White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. (WTM) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 16% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $5.42B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on WTM Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is WTM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. (NYSE: WTM) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $2,317.42 (+2.09% 1D, market cap $5.42B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, WTM ranks #101 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does WTM compare to MCY and MTG in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), WTM carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 4.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 16.4%. By comparison, MCY (Mercury General Corporation) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 10.5x, ROIC 22.4%, cap $5.67B) and MTG (MGIC Investment Corporation) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 8.0x, ROIC 13.2%, cap $5.83B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WTM leads on earnings multiple (4.8x) while MCY leads on capital efficiency (22.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for WTM?

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Per WTM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000776867), White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. generated $3.73B in revenue (+66.8% YoY), $1.11B in net income, and $382.4M in free cash flow against $12.31B in total assets and $2.72B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2,331.79 (+0.62%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 10.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for WTM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY WTM SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 35% operating margin leave 11 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$2,098.01+5.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$2,209.95-0.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$2,208.58+4.9% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$2,317.42+6.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (62) → B- (70)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the WTM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, WTM faces multiple-compression risk if 4.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 93.4% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($2,109.81) or 200D SMA ($2,139.78) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($2,442.56) toward Bear Floor ($1,900.28).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $WTM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “WTM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 70%NO 30%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERBOUGHT (>70)

71.930 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

8 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE97% OF RANGE

L: $1,864$2,317.42H: $2,333

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: B+RQD 32 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: BRQD 29 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on WTM

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (45)

16.4% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 7.14% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (75)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (77)

32/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 14/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like WTM

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (WTM Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

WTM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.92%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-11-03O $2,245.5H $2,317.4L $2,245.5C $2,317.4VOL 20.6K

RES: $2,012.5SUP: $1,951.6SMA50: $2,109.8SMA200: $2,139.8

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

WTM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 WTM Butterfly Map → + Track WTM →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

-14.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +66.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on WTM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for WTM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for WTM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (WTM)

Financials Rank #101 of 1097 ⚔️ MCY vs WTM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (WTM vs. MCY, MTG, SIGI, RLI)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. (WTM) ranks #101 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #260 by equity capitalization ($5.42B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WTM leads on earnings valuation at 4.8x trailing P/E, while MCY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 22.4% ROIC and — gross margin. RLI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 80/100 (B+) compared with WTM at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
WTM ACTIVE White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd.	B-	70/100	4.8x	—	16.4%	+2.09%	$5.42B	Benchmark Subject
MCY Mercury General Corporation	B	72/100	10.5x	—	22.4%	+1.28%	$5.67B	/mcy-vs-wtm →
MTG MGIC Investment Corporation	B	72/100	8.0x	—	13.2%	+1.87%	$5.83B	/mtg-vs-wtm →
SIGI Selective Insurance Group Inc.	B	74/100	12.6x	—	6.8%	+1.95%	$5.83B	/sigi-vs-wtm →
RLI RLI Corp.	B+	80/100	14.7x	—	13.5%	+3.08%	$5.98B	/rli-vs-wtm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000776867 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. (WTM) reported GAAP revenue of $3.73B (+66.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.24B , and +72.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.11B, operating cash flow of $550.5M, and free cash flow of $382.4M (-21.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, WTM closed FY2025 with $12.31B in total assets against $2.72B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$3.73B	$1.11B	$550.5M	$382.4M	$12.31B	$2.72B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.24B	$230.4M	$586.8M	$486.0M	$9.93B	$2.16B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$2.17B	$509.2M	$404.1M	$306.6M	$2.95B	$689.7M

3. WTM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is WTM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does WTM compare to MCY and MTG in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for WTM?

Where is WTM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

WTM last traded at $2,317.42 (+2.09% on volume of 26,454 shares), positioning the stock +9.84% above its 50-day simple moving average ($2,109.81) and +8.30% above its 200-day simple moving average ($2,139.78). Across its 52-week range of $1,863.60 to $2,333.00, WTM sits at the 96.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 71.9 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.9% ($2,227.04 to $2,407.80).

Direct Sub-Reports: WTM RQD Cockpit WTM 12M Forecast WTM Earnings & Move WTM Dividends & DRIP WTM Insiders & 13F WTM Whale Options WTM Profit Sankey WTM News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 70/100 (B-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

WTM — White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. (WTM) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 70/100, corresponding to a B- letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $2,317.42 (+2.09% 1D, market capitalization $5.42B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 16.4%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 36.1%, and free cash flow yield of 7.14%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (18/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.06x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. (WTM) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating in the Property-Casualty Insurers industry. The company reports revenue, operating income, and net income across FY 2023–FY 2025, but the source does not break these down by business line.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. (WTM) reported $3.73B in annual revenue (up from $2.24B in FY2024, +66.8% YoY) and $1.11B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.17B revenue, $509.2M net income) through FY2025, WTM scaled operating cash flow to $550.5M and free cash flow to $382.4M, backed by $12.31B in total assets against $2.72B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (B- • RQD 70/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1,863.60 – $2,333.00 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 4.8x trailing P/E and 4.3x EV/EBITDA against 36.1% operating margins and a 1.06x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Property-Casualty Insurers (Financials), WTM carries a macro regime beta of 1.06 and gross margin of —.

Key Question #1: Can WTM sustain or expand its 36.1% operating margin and 16.4% ROIC against Property-Casualty Insurers peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.73B and free cash flow of $382.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $2.72B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is WTM's 4.2x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.06x)?

WTM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. (WTM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to WTM Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 21h ago

White Mountains Insurance Group (WTM) Stock May Be 40% Below Fair Value As Excess Returns Hold

Yahoo Finance report covering White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. (WTM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. Estimates – NYSE:WTM

TradingView report covering White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. (WTM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

How Efficiency and AI Support White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd.’s (WTM) Revaluation Thesis

Yahoo Finance report covering White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. (WTM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

White Mountains Insurance Group (NYSE:WTM) Shares Cross Above Two Hundred Day Moving Average - Here's What Happened

MarketBeat report covering White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. (WTM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH ad-hoc-news.de • 1d ago

Dowling cuts full-year 2026 estimate for White Mountains Insurance Group stock to USD 106.20

ad-hoc-news.de report covering White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. (WTM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

White Mountains Insurance Group Q3 2026 Earnings Date and Estimates

MarketBeat report covering White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. (WTM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH ad-hoc-news.de • 1d ago

Dowling cuts 2026 estimate for White Mountains Insurance Group stock

ad-hoc-news.de report covering White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. (WTM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

DOWLING & PARTN Issues Pessimistic Estimate for WTM Earnings

MarketBeat report covering White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. (WTM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

WTM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2,317.42?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON WTM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2,633.19 (+16.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction scores 18 of 20 and forensic balance sheet scores 15 of 20, with the stock trading at 4.8x TTM earnings.

Picked up a starter position in WTM in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $2269.99. Insider conviction scores 18 of 20 and forensic balance sheet scores 15 of 20, with the stock trading at 4.8x TTM earnings.. Trading inside a $1870.00–$2333.00 52-week range with 7.14% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Property-Casualty Insurers multiples expand this quarter.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@SkepticalCFA Shorting a 14/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $2269.99 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1,702.49 (-25.0%)

Spot @ $2,269.99

Fundamental cash engine scores only 9 of 20 and debt rose from $689.7M to $2.72B across FY 2023–FY 2025.

Careful chasing WTM at $2269.99. Fundamental cash engine scores only 9 of 20 and debt rose from $689.7M to $2.72B across FY 2023–FY 2025.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 36.1%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $1702.49 on multiple compression.