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Why ABR Stock dropped -7.89% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$1.75 -7.89% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.72

Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 37/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $349.9M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ABR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Arbor Realty Trust (NYSE: ABR) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $1.75 (-7.89% 1D, market cap $349.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ABR ranks #954 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ABR compare to FPI and CHCT in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ABR carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.6%. By comparison, FPI (Farmland Partners Inc.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $360.2M) and CHCT (Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E 73.3x, ROIC 1.2%, cap $378.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FPI leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while FPI leads on capital efficiency (5.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ABR?
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Per ABR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001253986), Arbor Realty Trust generated $494.5M in revenue (-40.6% YoY), $0 in net income, and $372.4M in free cash flow against $14.49B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.72 (-1.61%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 75.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510037
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (9)Whales (4)SEC (10)Macro (7)CEO (7)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.7% Base Target
$10 Bull$2 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE ABR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ABR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (37/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ABR SCORES 37/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 75.3% FCF Margin ($372.4M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
45
Grade D$2.61+11.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
42
Grade D$2.90+1.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
40
Grade D$2.95-40.7% Next Q
Current
37
Grade D-$1.75-8.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (45) → D- (37)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ABR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ABR currently carries a cautious 37/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.76) and Max Pain ($1.84) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.26.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ABR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ABR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 37%NO 63%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why ABR Stock dropped -7.89% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) dropped -7.89% to $1.75, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($1.9 – $9.77). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (6% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($1.9 – $9.77) with RSI-14 at 32.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $1.75 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $372.4M annual free cash flow.
Live ABR Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ABR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ABR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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ABR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -78.13%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-04O $2.14H $2.14L $1.75C $1.75VOL 19.86M
RES: $5.46SUP: $1.87SMA50: $3.76SMA200: $5.85
$9.99$7.76$5.52$3.29$1.06RES $5.46SUP $1.87$1.752026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ABR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ABR Butterfly Map → + Track ABR →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -40.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ABR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ABR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ABR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ABR)

Financials Rank #954 of 1097 ⚔️ FPI vs ABR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ABR vs. FPI, CHCT, LAND, PINE)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) ranks #954 by composite RQD confidence (37/100, grade D-) and #778 by equity capitalization ($349.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FPI leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while FPI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.9% ROIC and — gross margin. PINE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 47/100 (D) compared with ABR at 37/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ABR ACTIVE
Arbor Realty Trust
D- 37/100 — — 5.6% -7.89% $349.9M Benchmark Subject
FPI
Farmland Partners Inc.
D 45/100 12.2x — 5.9% +1.87% $360.2M /fpi-vs-abr →
CHCT
Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated
D- 43/100 73.3x — 1.2% -1.06% $378.2M /chct-vs-abr →
LAND
Gladstone Land Corporation
D- 43/100 24.9x — 2.0% -1.21% $320.1M /land-vs-abr →
PINE
Alpine Income Property Trust Inc.
D 47/100 — — 3.8% -1.71% $303.6M /pine-vs-abr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001253986 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) reported GAAP revenue of $494.5M (-40.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $832.7M ) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $372.4M, and free cash flow of $372.4M (-19.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, ABR closed FY2025 with $14.49B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $494.5M $0 $372.4M $372.4M $14.49B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $832.7M $0 $461.5M $461.5M $13.49B —

3. ABR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ABR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Arbor Realty Trust (NYSE: ABR) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $1.75 (-7.89% 1D, market cap $349.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ABR ranks #954 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ABR compare to FPI and CHCT in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ABR carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.6%. By comparison, FPI (Farmland Partners Inc.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $360.2M) and CHCT (Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E 73.3x, ROIC 1.2%, cap $378.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FPI leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while FPI leads on capital efficiency (5.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ABR?

Per ABR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001253986), Arbor Realty Trust generated $494.5M in revenue (-40.6% YoY), $0 in net income, and $372.4M in free cash flow against $14.49B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ABR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ABR last traded at $1.75 (-7.89% on volume of 10,828,403 shares), positioning the stock -53.46% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.76) and -70.09% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.85). Across its 52-week range of $1.90 to $9.77, ABR sits at the 0.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 32.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.53 to $1.97).

Direct Sub-Reports: ABR RQD Cockpit ABR 12M Forecast ABR Earnings & Move ABR Dividends & DRIP ABR Insiders & 13F ABR Whale Options ABR Profit Sankey ABR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 37/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ABR — Arbor Realty Trust: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 37/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $1.75 (-7.89% 1D, market capitalization $349.9M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.6%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (7/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Financials sector and the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry. The market capitalization is $0.6B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) reported $494.5M in annual revenue (up from $832.7M in FY2024, -40.6% YoY) and $0 in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2024 ($832.7M revenue, $0 net income) through FY2025, ABR scaled operating cash flow to $372.4M and free cash flow to $372.4M, backed by $14.49B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 37/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.90 – $9.77 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore does not identify upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or peer-correlation links. Sector-level context is limited to the classification of Financials and Real Estate Investment Trusts.

  • Key Question #1: Can ABR sustain or expand its — operating margin and 5.6% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $494.5M and free cash flow of $372.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ABR's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ABR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ABR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ABR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1.75?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ABR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ABR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.82 (+31.8%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Cash of $482.9M and FCF of $372.4M in FY 2025 indicate meaningful liquidity despite the low rating.

Long ABR at $2.14 targeting $2.82. Cash of $482.9M and FCF of $372.4M in FY 2025 indicate meaningful liquidity despite the low rating.. Institutional whale score is 4/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $2.01 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Real Estate Investment Trusts. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.82 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $2.14

A dividend suspension, a 0% dividend yield, and a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 point to a weakening balance sheet and cash flow.

Fading this rally in ABR at $2.14. A dividend suspension, a 0% dividend yield, and a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 point to a weakening balance sheet and cash flow.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $2.14 (52-wk range $2.01–$10.10), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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