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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ADT / earnings
FTDR (86) EQPT (40) KFY (75) ALLE (79) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

ADT Inc. (ADT) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$9.86 -0.10% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.84

ADT Inc. (ADT) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $7.21B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ADT Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ADT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, ADT Inc. (NYSE: ADT) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $9.86 (-0.10% 1D, market cap $7.21B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ADT ranks #166 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ADT compare to FTDR and EQPT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), ADT carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.3%. By comparison, FTDR (Frontdoor Inc.) holds a A grade (86/100 RQD, P/E 23.6x, ROIC 51.1%, cap $6.02B) and EQPT (EquipmentShare.com Inc) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E 115.2x, ROIC 6.7%, cap $4.61B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ADT leads on earnings multiple (12.1x) while FTDR leads on capital efficiency (51.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ADT?
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Per ADT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001703056), ADT Inc. generated $5.13B in revenue (+4.7% YoY), $596.0M in net income, and $1.71B in free cash flow against $15.82B in total assets and $7.38B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.84 (-0.21%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 33.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510069
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C-
Cash (10)Whales (18)SEC (12)Macro (12)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5% Base Target
$12 Bull$10 Base$8 Bear
📬 FREE ADT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ADT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ADT SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+18/20 pts (26% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 25.5% operating margin leave 10 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$6.61+2.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$6.79+1.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$6.87+43.5% Next Q
Current
69
Grade C+$9.86+2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ADT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, ADT faces multiple-compression risk if 12.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($7.07) or 200D SMA ($7.10) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($10.35) toward Bear Floor ($8.07).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ADT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ADT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$1.23 Expected Swing
$8.63 (-12.5%)Spot $9.86$11.09 (+12.5%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ADT Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 69/100

Trailing EPS: $0.82 • YoY Revenue Growth: 4.7%

Model Bullish Setup (69/100)Model Risk Weight (31/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$5.13B$596.0M$1.71B52%
FY 20242024-12-31$4.90B$501.1M$1.72B52%
FY 20232023-12-31$4.65B$463.0M$1.45B52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating ADT & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on ADT
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
ADT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +39.66%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $7.41H $9.87L $7.41C $9.86VOL 163.86M
RES: $10.09SUP: $5.20SMA50: $7.07SMA200: $7.10
$10.27$9.12$7.97$6.82$5.67RES $10.09SUP $5.20$9.862026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ADT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ADT Butterfly Map → + Track ADT →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
2.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ADT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ADT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ADT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ADT)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #166 of 1011 ⚔️ FTDR vs ADT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ADT vs. FTDR, EQPT, KFY, ALLE)

Industry: Diversified Commercial Services (32 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ADT Inc. (ADT) ranks #166 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #215 by equity capitalization ($7.21B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ADT leads on earnings valuation at 12.1x trailing P/E, while FTDR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 51.1% ROIC and 55.3% gross margin. FTDR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 86/100 (A) compared with ADT at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ADT ACTIVE
ADT Inc.
C+ 69/100 12.1x — 9.3% -0.10% $7.21B Benchmark Subject
FTDR
Frontdoor Inc.
A 86/100 23.6x 55.3% 51.1% +0.31% $6.02B /ftdr-vs-adt →
EQPT
EquipmentShare.com Inc
D- 40/100 115.2x 60.7% 6.7% -5.50% $4.61B /eqpt-vs-adt →
KFY
Korn Ferry
B 75/100 14.8x — 20.2% +0.83% $4.14B /kfy-vs-adt →
ALLE
Allegion plc
B+ 79/100 24.5x 45.2% 18.4% -0.33% $15.77B /alle-vs-adt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001703056

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ADT Inc. (ADT) reported GAAP revenue of $5.13B (+4.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.90B , and +10.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $596.0M, operating cash flow of $1.88B, and free cash flow of $1.71B (-0.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, ADT closed FY2025 with $15.82B in total assets against $7.38B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.69, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $5.13B $596.0M $1.88B $1.71B $15.82B $7.38B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $4.90B $501.1M $1.88B $1.72B $16.05B $7.51B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $4.65B $463.0M $1.66B $1.45B $5.58B $1.31B

3. ADT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ADT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, ADT Inc. (NYSE: ADT) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $9.86 (-0.10% 1D, market cap $7.21B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ADT ranks #166 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ADT compare to FTDR and EQPT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), ADT carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.3%. By comparison, FTDR (Frontdoor Inc.) holds a A grade (86/100 RQD, P/E 23.6x, ROIC 51.1%, cap $6.02B) and EQPT (EquipmentShare.com Inc) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E 115.2x, ROIC 6.7%, cap $4.61B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ADT leads on earnings multiple (12.1x) while FTDR leads on capital efficiency (51.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ADT?

Per ADT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001703056), ADT Inc. generated $5.13B in revenue (+4.7% YoY), $596.0M in net income, and $1.71B in free cash flow against $15.82B in total assets and $7.38B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ADT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ADT last traded at $9.86 (-0.10% on volume of 53,899,243 shares), positioning the stock +39.46% above its 50-day simple moving average ($7.07) and +38.87% above its 200-day simple moving average ($7.10). Across its 52-week range of $6.03 to $9.99, ADT sits at the 96.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 88.3 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($8.63 to $11.09).

ADT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is ADT's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, ADT Inc. (ADT)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is ADT stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for ADT, spanning a range between $8.63 and $11.09.

Direct Sub-Reports: ADT RQD Cockpit ADT 12M Forecast ADT Earnings & Move ADT Dividends & DRIP ADT Insiders & 13F ADT Whale Options ADT Profit Sankey ADT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 69/100 (C+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ADT — ADT Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:18:25Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ADT scores 69 out of 100, a letter grade of C+, with the verdict "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 10 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 9.3% and an FCF yield of 22%. The cash-generation profile is a relative strength, but the pillar score sits at half weight, indicating the fundamental picture is not what carries the rating.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 18 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. This is the highest-scoring pillar and is the main driver of the rating's upper-neutral tilt.
  • Insider Conviction: 17 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. It is the second-strongest pillar.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 12 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.05 and sector sensitivity is noted. This is a moderate score, indicating average exposure to market swings.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 12 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z is 0.69, the Piotroski F is 7/9, and Debt/Equity is 1.95. The Z-score is a distress-range reading and the leverage is high; the Piotroski score is comparatively healthy. This mixed picture caps the pillar.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the rating points to a balanced setup: flow and insider signals are strong, while the balance sheet and fundamental scoring hold the rating back from a higher grade. The upside case rests on continued positioning momentum and the cash-flow yield; the valuation tradeoff is that a 22% FCF yield coexists with a 69-point composite and a leveraged capital structure, so the cash generation must be weighed against balance-sheet risk. The rating's own label frames the stock as a hold pending a potential breakout rather than a clear accumulation signal.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
9.87$7.21B12.111.39.90.822.59%1.05$6.03 - $9.999.3%

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Acquisition news. Per the recent news feed, a Seeking Alpha report headlined "ADT to be acquired by Thrive Holdings in $15B deal (ADT:NYSE)" is among the items. A Motley Fool report headlined "Stock Market Today, Oct. 29: ADT Surges 33% on $10 Per Share All-Cash Acquisition Deal" is flagged as a CATALYST-level item. These are the most material items in the feed and the principal event driver.
  • Price action. Per the market data, the price change is 33.2%, with volume of 163,862,499 and a price of 9.87 relative to a 52-week range of $6.03 - $9.99.
  • Other wire items. Per the recent news feed, additional items from Yahoo! Finance Canada, Trefis, Yahoo Finance, and CNBC are flagged as MARKET WIRE; their headlines are generic coverage of market action and do not add independent fundamental detail.
  • Risk watch items. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score of 0.69 and Debt/Equity of 1.95 are the primary forensic risk markers. The gross margin is reported as 0% in the market data, which is not further explained in the source data.
  • Proprietary signals. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no proprietary signals are recorded.

Open Questions

  • What are the terms, financing structure, and expected closing timeline of the reported acquisition, and how do they relate to the $10 per-share all-cash figure referenced in the news feed?
  • What explains the gross margin of 0% reported in the market data alongside a 25.5% operating margin?
  • Why does total debt move from $1306.5M in FY 2023 to $7379.4M in FY 2025, and what is the debt maturity profile?
  • What is the specific basis for the 0.69 Altman Z-Score and whether it reflects the company's standing post-transaction?
  • What are the identities and sizes of the 13F institutional holders and insider transactions underlying the 18/20 and 17/20 pillar scores?

ADT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for ADT Inc. (ADT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ADT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ADT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $9.86?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ADT 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ADT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $10.66 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ADT (C+ • RQD 69/100) a Buy at $9.87?

Welcome to the ADT (ADT Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 69/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Diversified Commercial Services. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.19 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $9.87

Pump the brakes on ADT — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ADT, but look at what you are paying: 12.1x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless ADT Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $11.84 (+20.0%)
Spot @ $9.87

ADT cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ADT, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Diversified Commercial Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $9.87 (52-wk range $6.03 - $9.99), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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