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Stock Ratings / Financials / AGNC / dividends
GLPI (66) AMH (62) EGP (66) UDR (63) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$8.69 +0.46% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.68

AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $11.02B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AGNC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ: AGNC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $8.69 (+0.46% 1D, market cap $11.02B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, AGNC ranks #587 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AGNC compare to GLPI and AMH in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), AGNC carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.4x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 2.9%. By comparison, GLPI (Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 14.8%, cap $11.34B) and AMH (American Homes 4 Rent Common) posts a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 3.8%, cap $11.35B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AGNC leads on earnings multiple (6.4x) while GLPI leads on capital efficiency (14.8% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGNC?
β–Ό

Per AGNC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001423689), AGNC Investment Corp. generated $5.52B in revenue (+93.5% YoY), $1.67B in net income, and $653.0M in free cash flow against $115.08B in total assets and $46.21B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.68 (-0.11%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) β€’ 11.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 50.1% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D+
025507510052
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ Β· Rk D+
Cash (11)Whales (5)SEC (15)Macro (6)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.6% Base Target
$13 Bull$8 Base$7 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE AGNC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AGNC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±5.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY AGNC SCORES 52/100 (D+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 7/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
44
Grade D$8.61+2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
47
Grade D$8.78+0.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
49
Grade D$8.86-1.9% Next Q
Current
52
Grade D+$8.69-1.1% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: D (44) β†’ D+ (52)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AGNC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While AGNC currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AGNCβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œAGNC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 52%NO 48%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
13.3% Total Yield
11.5% Cash ($1.00/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
41/100 β€’ ELEVATED PAYOUT WATCH
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
96% of FCF
8 consecutive years of payout growth
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (21.5% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years β†’ $70,107

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $9,324/yr
$12.2K
Yr 1
$14.8K
Yr 2
$17.9K
Yr 3
$21.8K
Yr 4
$26.5K
Yr 5
$32.2K
Yr 6
$39.1K
Yr 7
$47.5K
Yr 8
$57.7K
Yr 9
$70.1K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AGNC)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of AGNC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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AGNC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -18.40%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $8.83H $8.83L $8.65C $8.69VOL 23.61M
RES: $12.40SUP: $8.08SMA50: $9.46SMA200: $10.45
$11.66$10.77$9.88$8.99$8.10RES $12.40SUP $8.08$8.692026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AGNC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ AGNC Butterfly Map β†’ + Track AGNC β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-9.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +93.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AGNC today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AGNC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AGNC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AGNC)

Financials Rank #587 of 1097 βš”οΈ GLPI vs AGNC Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AGNC vs. GLPI, AMH, EGP, UDR)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) ranks #587 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #176 by equity capitalization ($11.02B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AGNC leads on earnings valuation at 6.4x trailing P/E, while GLPI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.8% ROIC and β€” gross margin. GLPI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with AGNC at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AGNC ACTIVE
AGNC Investment Corp.
D+ 52/100 6.4x β€” 2.9% +0.46% $11.02B Benchmark Subject
GLPI
Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc.
C+ 66/100 β€” β€” 14.8% +0.92% $11.34B /glpi-vs-agnc β†’
AMH
American Homes 4 Rent Common
C 62/100 32.8x β€” 3.8% +0.92% $11.35B /amh-vs-agnc β†’
EGP
EastGroup Properties Inc.
C+ 66/100 41.7x β€” 5.8% +1.01% $10.69B /egp-vs-agnc β†’
UDR
UDR Inc.
C 63/100 30.1x β€” 7.3% +1.10% $11.41B /udr-vs-agnc β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001423689 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) reported GAAP revenue of $5.52B (+93.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.85B , and +977.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.67B, operating cash flow of $653.0M, and free cash flow of $653.0M (+659.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, AGNC closed FY2025 with $115.08B in total assets against $46.21B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $5.52B $1.67B $653.0M $653.0M $115.08B $46.21B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.85B $863.0M $86.0M $86.0M $88.02B $35.21B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $512.1M $155.0M -$118.0M -$118.0M $5.84B $1.37B

3. AGNC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AGNC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ: AGNC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $8.69 (+0.46% 1D, market cap $11.02B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, AGNC ranks #587 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AGNC compare to GLPI and AMH in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), AGNC carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.4x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 2.9%. By comparison, GLPI (Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 14.8%, cap $11.34B) and AMH (American Homes 4 Rent Common) posts a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 3.8%, cap $11.35B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AGNC leads on earnings multiple (6.4x) while GLPI leads on capital efficiency (14.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGNC?

Per AGNC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001423689), AGNC Investment Corp. generated $5.52B in revenue (+93.5% YoY), $1.67B in net income, and $653.0M in free cash flow against $115.08B in total assets and $46.21B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AGNC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AGNC last traded at $8.69 (+0.46% on volume of 23,100,262 shares), positioning the stock -8.14% below its 50-day simple moving average ($9.46) and -16.84% below its 200-day simple moving average ($10.45). Across its 52-week range of $8.38 to $12.19, AGNC sits at the 8.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±5.4% ($8.22 to $9.16).

Direct Sub-Reports: AGNC RQD Cockpit AGNC 12M Forecast AGNC Earnings & Move AGNC Dividends & DRIP AGNC Insiders & 13F AGNC Whale Options AGNC Profit Sankey AGNC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 52/100 (D+) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AGNC β€” AGNC Investment Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 52/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $8.69 (+0.46% 1D, market capitalization $11.02B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 2.9%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of 68.6%, and free cash flow yield of 4.89%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 0.99x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector and Real Estate Investment Trusts industry, with a market capitalization of $10.6B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) reported $5.52B in annual revenue (up from $2.85B in FY2024, +93.5% YoY) and $1.67B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($512.1M revenue, $155.0M net income) through FY2025, AGNC scaled operating cash flow to $653.0M and free cash flow to $653.0M, backed by $115.08B in total assets against $46.21B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D+ β€’ RQD 52/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $8.38 – $12.19 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 6.4x trailing P/E and 24.8x EV/EBITDA against 68.6% operating margins and a 0.99x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Real Estate Investment Trusts (Financials), AGNC carries a macro regime beta of 0.99 and gross margin of β€”.

  • Key Question #1: Can AGNC sustain or expand its 68.6% operating margin and 2.9% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $5.52B and free cash flow of $653.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $46.21B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AGNC's 5.4x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.99x)?

AGNC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to AGNC Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AGNC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $8.69?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AGNC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AGNC:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Systematic Momentum Desk πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $10.90 (+26.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Trading at a 6.4 trailing P/E with an 11.5% dividend yield and a 7/9 Piotroski F-Score, AGNC offers high income with a balance sheet th

Long AGNC at $8.65 targeting $10.90. Trading at a 6.4 trailing P/E with an 11.5% dividend yield and a 7/9 Piotroski F-Score, AGNC offers high income with a balance sheet that the RQD rating scores as sound.. Institutional whale score is 5/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $8.38 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

VolSurface_Trader πŸ‚ BULL

@ForensicBear Shorting a 5/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $8.65 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $6.92 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $8.65

A 2.9% ROIC and a 54 RQD score with a Trim verdict suggest the high yield is not supported by returns on invested capital.

I respect the product at AGNC Investment Corp., but the stock at $8.65 is a different story. A 2.9% ROIC and a 54 RQD score with a Trim verdict suggest the high yield is not supported by returns on invested capital.. FCF yield is 4.89% and RQD sits at 52/100 (D+) β€” why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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