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SPNT (63) NMIH (73) SLDE (84) HG (55) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$71.93 +2.06% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $72.06

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 54/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $3.10B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AGO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE: AGO) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $71.93 (+2.06% 1D, market cap $3.10B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, AGO ranks #543 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AGO compare to SPNT and NMIH in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), AGO carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.2x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 8.9%. By comparison, SPNT (SiriusPoint Ltd.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 6.6x, ROIC 18.6%, cap $3.01B) and NMIH (NMI Holdings Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 8.4x, ROIC 15.0%, cap $3.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AGO leads on earnings multiple (6.2x) while SLDE leads on capital efficiency (39.9% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGO?
β–Ό

Per AGO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001273813), Assured Guaranty Ltd. generated $5.11B in revenue (+2.3% YoY), $503.0M in net income, and $259.0M in free cash flow against $12.18B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $72.06 (+0.18%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) β€’ 5.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 54/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 51.0% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D+
025507510054
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ Β· Rk D+
Cash (11)Whales (6)SEC (13)Macro (8)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.8% Base Target
$97 Bull$71 Base$55 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE AGO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AGO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±3.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (54/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY AGO SCORES 54/100 (D+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 4/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
46
Grade D$69.68+0.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
49
Grade D$70.01-0.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
51
Grade C-$69.84+3% Next Q
Current
54
Grade D+$71.93-0.7% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: D (46) β†’ D+ (54)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AGO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While AGO currently carries a cautious 54/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($71.12) and Max Pain ($75.53) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $97.02.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AGOβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œAGO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 54%NO 46%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±3.8%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (AGO)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for AGO.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AGO)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of AGO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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AGO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.00%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $70.88H $71.93L $70.48C $71.93VOL 350.9K
RES: $91.68SUP: $65.71SMA50: $71.12SMA200: $78.85
$88.32$82.61$76.89$71.18$65.47RES $91.68SUP $65.71$71.932026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AGO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ AGO Butterfly Map β†’ + Track AGO β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-10.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +2.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AGO today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AGO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AGO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AGO)

Financials Rank #543 of 1097 βš”οΈ SPNT vs AGO Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AGO vs. SPNT, NMIH, SLDE, HG)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) ranks #543 by composite RQD confidence (54/100, grade D+) and #358 by equity capitalization ($3.10B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AGO leads on earnings valuation at 6.2x trailing P/E, while SLDE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 39.9% ROIC and β€” gross margin. SLDE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 84/100 (A-) compared with AGO at 54/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AGO ACTIVE
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
D+ 54/100 6.2x β€” 8.9% +2.06% $3.10B Benchmark Subject
SPNT
SiriusPoint Ltd.
C 63/100 6.6x β€” 18.6% +0.50% $3.01B /spnt-vs-ago β†’
NMIH
NMI Holdings Inc.
B 73/100 8.4x β€” 15.0% +1.76% $3.21B /nmih-vs-ago β†’
SLDE
Slide Insurance Holdings Inc.
A- 84/100 7.2x β€” 39.9% -0.72% $3.25B /slde-vs-ago β†’
HG
Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. (Class B)
D+ 55/100 β€” β€” β€” +3.48% $2.92B /hg-vs-ago β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001273813 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) reported GAAP revenue of $5.11B (+2.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.00B , and +9548.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $503.0M, operating cash flow of $259.0M, and free cash flow of $259.0M (+451.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, AGO closed FY2025 with $12.18B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $5.11B $503.0M $259.0M $259.0M $12.18B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $5.00B $376.0M $47.0M $47.0M $11.90B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $53.0M $739.0M $461.0M $461.0M β€” β€”

3. AGO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AGO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE: AGO) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $71.93 (+2.06% 1D, market cap $3.10B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, AGO ranks #543 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AGO compare to SPNT and NMIH in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), AGO carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.2x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 8.9%. By comparison, SPNT (SiriusPoint Ltd.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 6.6x, ROIC 18.6%, cap $3.01B) and NMIH (NMI Holdings Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 8.4x, ROIC 15.0%, cap $3.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AGO leads on earnings multiple (6.2x) while SLDE leads on capital efficiency (39.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGO?

Per AGO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001273813), Assured Guaranty Ltd. generated $5.11B in revenue (+2.3% YoY), $503.0M in net income, and $259.0M in free cash flow against $12.18B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AGO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AGO last traded at $71.93 (+2.06% on volume of 358,938 shares), positioning the stock +1.14% above its 50-day simple moving average ($71.12) and -8.78% below its 200-day simple moving average ($78.85). Across its 52-week range of $67.24 to $92.40, AGO sits at the 18.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±3.8% ($69.20 to $74.66).

Direct Sub-Reports: AGO RQD Cockpit AGO 12M Forecast AGO Earnings & Move AGO Dividends & DRIP AGO Insiders & 13F AGO Whale Options AGO Profit Sankey AGO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 54/100 (D+) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AGO β€” Assured Guaranty Ltd.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 54/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $71.93 (+2.06% 1D, market capitalization $3.10B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.9%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of β€”, and free cash flow yield of 8.31%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Per the sector profile, Assured Guaranty Ltd. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Property-Casualty Insurers industry..1B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) reported $5.11B in annual revenue (up from $5.00B in FY2024, +2.3% YoY) and $503.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($53.0M revenue, $739.0M net income) through FY2025, AGO scaled operating cash flow to $259.0M and free cash flow to $259.0M, backed by $12.18B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D+ β€’ RQD 54/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 8.31% and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $67.24 – $92.40 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 6.2x trailing P/E against β€” operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

β€” for upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks. A prospective investor should note that the absence of mapped links means this dossier cannot identify ripple pathways; the November 5 results date is the nearest observable event.

  • Key Question #1: Can AGO sustain or expand its β€” operating margin and 8.9% ROIC against Property-Casualty Insurers peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $5.11B and free cash flow of $259.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AGO's 5.8x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

AGO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to AGO Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AGO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $71.93?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AGO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AGO:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Fundamental Long-Only πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $82.46 (+17.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Insider conviction (16/20) and a 8.31% FCF yield at a 6.2 P/E offer cash-generation and insider-flow support.

The street is overcomplicating Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO). Insider conviction (16/20) and a 8.31% FCF yield at a 6.2 P/E offer cash-generation and insider-flow support.. With an RQD score of 54/100 (D+) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $76.12.

SectorRotator πŸ‚ BULL

@BearTrap_Alert Fair point on 6.2x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Property-Casualty Insurers. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $57.79 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $70.48

Weak institutional flow (7/20) and reports of institutional selling, with a D+ RQD score, point to fundamental and sponsorship weakness

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short AGO above $70.48. Weak institutional flow (7/20) and reports of institutional selling, with a D+ RQD score, point to fundamental and sponsorship weakness.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20) and FCF yield (8.31%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $92.40.

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